Shelter CymruDr. Christian N. Jardine

1
Achieving 60 cuts in CO2 emissions from housing
by 2050(Save the planet Knock down a house?)

• Dr Christian N. Jardine
• Environmental Change Institute
• University of Oxford

2
The Domestic Sector

• Reducing CO2 emissions from the domestic sector
  by 60 by 2050

3
Energy Use Within The Home

• Nearly 2/3 of energy goes on space heating
• 1/4 of energy used for heating water
• Lights and appliances moderately small, but
  rising rapidly (digital etc.)

4
Our context

• Four objectives of Energy White Paper 2003
• 60 reduction in carbon dioxide by 2050
• adequate and affordable warmth
• security of supply
• competitiveness
• Accounts for likely changes in population and
  climate

5
GB residential energy trends, 1970-2001
Based on Shorrock and Utley (2003)
6
A growing and ageing population

• population peaks around 2050
• design for lifetime standards and social
  inclusion
• an opportunity to save energy while improving
  quality of life

7
Effect of household size on energy use
Source Fawcett et al 2000, based on analysis of
EHCS 1996 data
8
Improving the Housing Stock
High Carbon
Low Carbon
9
Demolition rates - UK
ODPM 2003
10
Housing stock changes, 1996 2050
Net additions, 1996 2004
refurbish
New build, 2005 - 50
demolish
11
Fabric improvements by 2050
12
Technical Potential of Appliances

• Major savings to be made from
• Lighting (LEDs replace incandescent bulbs)
• Cold appliances (vacuum insulated panels)
• Consumer electronics continues to grow
• Profligate equipment (air conditioning, patio
  heaters, hot tubs, plasma TVs) not taken up

13
Key Challenges

• Improve efficiency of cold appliances and
  lighting
• Ensure low-carbon product design
• Over-emphasis on energy efficiency

14
Low- and Zero-Carbon technologies (LZC)

15
LZC Deployment
16
Beyond Central Heating

• A chance for change 45 years 3 replacement
  boiler cycles
• Gas boilers in just 20 of homes by 2050
  (compared to 90 now)
• Average 0.8 LZCs per home by 2050
• Residential sector is a net exporter of
  electricity (summer time)

17
Domestic energy use to 2050

• Energy use declines marginally to 2050
• But CO2 emissions 43 of present levels
• All electricity and most heat from onsite
  microgeneration

18
40 House summary
More space, heat, hot water, lights, appliances
133 housing stock
100
70 demand reduction
40 low- zero-carbon micro-generation (LZC)
19
Towards a low-carbon housing strategy

• Needs strong leadership and a coherent policy
  framework
• Tighter building regulations and compliance
• Extensive refurbishment of existing properties
• Target property transactions as key to improving
  existing homes
• Strong EU policies establish energy conservation
  as product design principle
• Widescale LZC deployment replacement of central
  plant with distributed plant
• Diversity of LZC technologies energy security

20

• Thank you for your attention

21
UK Electricity Mix

• Coal, oil and gas lead to emissions of the
  greenhouse gas CO2
• Gas also burned for heating in the home

22
Residential electricity use
ECI, Decade Second Year Report, 1995
23
Spread of electricity and gas use
Gas
Electricity
BRE, Energy Use In Homes, 2005
24
Spread of consumption
25
Demand for air-conditioning in a warmer climate
EdinburghWorst Case 0
Manchester Worst Case 7
Cardiff Worst Case 29
London Worst Case 42
26
Cooling strategies and carbon emissions