Water, energy, and food insecurity in Central Asia

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Water, energy, and food insecurity in Central Asia

• Ben Slay
• Senior economist
• UNDP Bureau for Europe and CIS
• 3 March 2009
• CEPS, Brussels

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High poverty rates across Central Asia
Bottom billion
2005 World Bank data, based on 2005 PPP exchange
rates
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Water consumption in Central Asia Very high . . .
In cubic metres per annum. From various years,
1998-2007. Source (http//www.fao.org/nr/water/aq
uastat/dbase/index.stm
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. . . Due to irrigation, not household consumption
Share of population without access to improved
water sources
2004 data. Source UNDP Human Development Report
Office
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Water volumes in 2008-2009 Well below normal . .
.
2008-2009 data, relative to monthly averages from
1991-2007. Source SIC-ICWC, UNDP calculations
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Electric shock stops industrial growth
Volume of industrial output
Electric power generation, 2008
Kumtor production not included
Source National statistical offices
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. . .Puts pressure on household energy costs
Average household tariffs (TAJ)
Uzbek gas costs Up sharply
Price (per 1000 cubic metres) of gas imports from
Uzbekistan, purchased by TAJ, KYR
Per kWh. World Bank data
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Food prices in Central Asia Still high

• Tajikistan
• 1.5 million food insecure
• 650,00 severely food insecure, requiring
  immediate support
• Kyrgyzstan Nearly 1 million vulnerable
• UN food security appeals in both countries

2007
2008
2009
Sources FAO, national statistical offices UNDP
calculations
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Long-run solution More big dams . . .
Nurek HPP (Tajikistan)
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. . . under CASAREM
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Existing Facilities Toktogul HPP
Existing Surplus Nurek HPP
Existing Surplus
Perspective Facilities 220/500 kV Uzbek by pass
SS Datka (Kyrgyz) SS Hojent (Tajik)
Cascade of Zarafshan HPPs (Yavan and
Oburdon HPP) Annual generation
1680 GWh Rogun HPP Annual
generation 13000 GWh Coal TPP
Annual generation 3900-6400 GWh 500 kV OHL
CASA 1000 Nurek HPP Kabul - Peshawar
Uzbekistan
Tajikistan
China
Facilities Under Construction 500 kV OHL
South-North Financing China Exim bank Sangtuda
1 HPP Financing Russia Sangtuda
2 HPP Financing Iran 220 kV OHL
SS Sarban Tajik/Afghan border
Financing ADB/IsDB
Pakistan
Kabul
Peshawar
Afghanistan
India
Courtesy of World Bank
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Short termNeed combination of

• Energy sector
• Demand rationalisation
• Energy efficiency projects
• Information campaigns
• Social protection
• Supply side
• Micro/small hydro
• One community at a time
• Policy reforms to improve enabling environment
• Better early warning systems
• Better links between
• Disaster prevention
• Humanitarian response
• Early recovery
• Development programming

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Thank you very much!

• ?o???oe
• C?ac??o!
• Rakhmat!