Pverkan p ekosystem globalt och i sdra Sverige

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Påverkan på ekosystem - globalt och i södra
Sverige
Dr. Thomas Hickler Intitutionen för Naturgeografi
och Ekosystemanalys, Lunds Universitet www.nateko.
lu.se/embers
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Klimatförändringar i södra Sverige fram till 2060

• Temperatur
• vinter 2-4 varmare
• sommar 1-3 varmare
• Nederbörd
• vinter 5 till 50
• sommar 20 till -40
• Polsk sommar och engelsk vinter

Extremare väder - intensivare regn och längre
torrperioder !!
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Växtperiodens längd
http//www.smhi.se/hfa_coord/sweclim_bild_ark/over
sikt2/oversikt2.htm
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CO2 är en resurs för växter
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Pollen Assemblage Classes
Pine dominated boreal forest Mixed boreal
forest Birch dominated boreal forest Mixed
deciduous forest Broadleaved forest Spruce
dominated boreal forest
Bradshaw, Holmqvist Berglund Slides with kind
permission from Richard Bradshaw
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Pollen Assemblage Classes
Pine dominated boreal forest Mixed boreal
forest Birch dominated boreal forest Mixed
deciduous forest Broadleaved forest Spruce
dominated boreal forest
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Pollen Assemblage Classes
Pine dominated boreal forest Mixed boreal
forest Birch dominated boreal forest Mixed
deciduous forest Broadleaved forest Spruce
dominated boreal forest
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Pollen Assemblage Classes
Pine dominated boreal forest Mixed boreal
forest Birch dominated boreal forest Mixed
deciduous forest Broadleaved forest Spruce
dominated boreal forest
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Pollen Assemblage Classes
Pine dominated boreal forest Mixed boreal
forest Birch dominated boreal forest Mixed
deciduous forest Broadleaved forest Spruce
dominated boreal forest
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Pollen Assemblage Classes
Pine dominated boreal forest Mixed boreal
forest Birch dominated boreal forest Mixed
deciduous forest Broadleaved forest Spruce
dominated boreal forest
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Pollen Assemblage Classes
Pine dominated boreal forest Mixed boreal
forest Birch dominated boreal forest Mixed
deciduous forest Broadleaved forest Spruce
dominated boreal forest
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Det här är 5 grader!
http//www.scotese.com/lastice.htm
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Kindly provided by Julia Pongartz and Christian
Reick
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Klimat- och sårbarhetsutredningen (1 Oktober
20071) 350.000 hus risk för ras eller
havsytan Torsken i Östersjön dör troligen
ut Vinnare skogsbruk (200-310 milj. Kronor),
vattenkraft (100-240 milj kronor) 30 mindre
energi för uppvärmning
Kostnadarna till 2100 1900 milj. kronor vinster
1750 milj. kronor Svenska statens
skatteintäkter 2006 793 milj. kronor2
1www.regeringen.se/sb/d/8704/a/89334 2www.regering
en.se/sb/d/8969
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200 millioner klimatflyktningar vid 2050 5-20
mindre global BNP (Stern report 2006
http//www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/Independent_Reviews/
stern_review_economics_climate_change/sternreview_
index.cfm short summary http//environment.guardi
an.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,,1935211,00.html )
Schaphoff, S., W. Lucht, D. Gerten, S. Sitch, W.
Cramer, Prentice, I.C., 2006. Terrestrial
biosphere carbon storage under alternative
climate projections. Climatic Change 74, 97-122.
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17 av Bangladesh under vatten om havsnivån
stiger med 1m
projected
Gitay, H. Presentation at http//www.ipcc.ch/prese
nt/presentations.htm
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Vem orsakar problemet?
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IPCC 2007 Summary for policy makers
http//www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf
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Var finns allt kol?Enhet Gt C and Gt C y-1
Luft
gt4-5!! in 2002/03
750
Fossila bränslen
16,000
Växter
500
Marken
2000
Ocean
39,000
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http//images.google.se/imgres?imgurlhttp//www.c
oolantarctica.com/images/larsenB_050302.jpgimgref
urlhttp//www.coolantarctica.com/Antarctica2520f
act2520file/science/global_warming.htmh208w25
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92tbnw111prev/images3Fq3Dice2BLarsen2BB26
gbv3D226svnum3D1026hl3Dsv26sa3DG
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Space-borne microwave sensors, such as the
Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I)
radiometer, can see through clouds and do not
require solar illumination. They are also very
sensitive to the presence of liquid water within
the snowpack and, therefore, can be used for
mapping melting snow in Greenland. We used SSM/I
data collected between 1979 and 2006 for mapping
melting snow over the Greenland ice sheet. We
compared our results with ground-based
measurements collected by automatic weather
stations deployed in Greenland, and with surface
temperature data derived from global models and
with data from other satellites. By means of
satellite data, we were able to identify an
extreme melting event at the end of June, 2002
where, for the first time in 28 years, melting
occurred at locations in inner Greenland at high
altitudes. During the same year, over 80 of the
entire Greenland ice sheet surface experienced at
least one day of melting this corresponds to an
area the size of France, Spain and Italy put
together. Results also suggest that the area
experiencing at least one day of melting has been
increasing since 1992 at a rate of 35000 km2 per
year (2 of the entire Greenland surface),
meaning that every year an area equivalent to the
state of Maryland would be subject to new
melting.
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Världsekonomin 2006 48000 miljarder
Subventioner för fossil bränsle 2004 151
miljarder 3 Kriget i Irak 1000-2000 miljarder
4 380 ppm CO2 240 miljarder per year5
Mer än hälften av Storbrittaniens energi1
Hög spänning likström kablar
3UNEP world energy assessment 2004 4Bilmes
Stieglitz 2006 5UNFCC 2007
Potential offshore wind generation resource for
U.K. more than 8 times the current demand
(Depatment of Trade and Industry, 2005), Monbiot
estimates that 5-10 of this should be
economically viable, which would cover more than
half the elictricity need
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IPCC 2007
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Temperatur på Grönland under och efter den
senaste istiden
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The Younger Dryas in Schleswig Holstein (northern
Germany)