Scenario evaluation and topic consultation workshops

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Scenario evaluation and topic consultation
workshops

• Structure and content for 10 topic workshops with
  stakeholders of the NWDA

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Structure of the session

• Introductions and objectives
• Issues and challenges facing the North West
• Briefing on key developments relevant to topic
  area
• Presentation of scenarios
• First exercise review scenarios and identify
  elements that represent desirable future
  developments from the perspective of the topic
  area
• Review and discuss
• Second exercise How would policy and practice
  have had to develop to maximise the North Wests
  competitive advantage in this area
• Assessment of risk factors
• Summary and close

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Topic workshop objectives

• Consult with experts to explore the ways in which
  the scenarios can be most effectively used to
  guide policy formulation within each topic area
• Identify the most helpful aspects of the
  scenarios and fine tune these to ensure they are
  fit for purpose
• Clarify the range of policy levers available in
  steering the region towards desired outcomes in
  the future

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Overall project objectives

• NWDA commissioned this pilot study to further
  develop economic policymaking in the North West
• Aim to stimulate and facilitate thought and
  debate on some of the key issues facing the
  region in the future.
• Inform planning, policy and decision-making in
  the region by taking a structured approach to
  thinking about the future.
• Directly shape the continued development of the
  Regional Economic Strategy
• The NWDA has two inter-linked objectives
• To design and test of a foresighting process
  with policymakers and leading thinkers in the
  region
• the development of a series of research papers on
  10 pre-defined topics
• The process of this foresighting and its effect
  on how people think about the future is
  considered at least as valuable as the actual
  research outcomes

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Linking Foresighting to the Regional Economic
Strategy
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Opportunities and challenges facing the North
West in this area
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Overview of topic area
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Rationale and purpose of the scenarios

• In this project the aim of the foresighting is
  primarily to assist in
• planning
• making policy initiatives robust to future
  social/economic change
• helping with risk assessment and monitoring.
• The scenarios are being developed primarily for
  this, not just to help clarify positive/negative
  visions, although scenarios can be used for this
  purpose too.
• Each scenario therefore represents a future in
  which a particular cluster of trends identified
  in the future proofing exercise are especially
  dominant in shaping the future

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Long list of the trends from the future proofing
exercise
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Results from the NWDA future-proofing
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Using future-proofed trends to form scenarios

• The rationale flows directly from the Future
  Proofing exercise in which we identified four
  groups of trends, which incorporated the trends
  with varying degrees of power for the NWDA
• - ALREADY SIGNIFICANT GROWING IN FUTURE
• - Growing in the future
• - SIGNIFICANCE MAINTAINED
• - May have specific impact on nature of change
• The clusters of trends formed the basis of the
  scenario generation

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Trends that underlie all scenarios
Global security concerns,increasing expenditure
pressures
INFRASTRUCTURE CONSTRAINTS
Technology (Enabling growth, individualism,
health)
RISING AFFLUENCE CONSUMER SPENDING EMPLOYMENT
STRUCTURE EXPENSIVE SERVICES
Longevity BABY BOOMERS Fluid Families Culture of
change
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Grouped economic, global and technological
drivers for scenario creation
Global Resource scarcity ENERGY NEEDS Resource
Scarcity True cost economics Assault on
pleasure, Wages of sin
Rampant East GLOBAL POWER SINGLE MARKET LARGER
EUROPE
A Network Society NETWORK SOCIETY (trad) work
less important 25-hours
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Grouped socio-economic, consumer and value based
trends for scenario creation
North West Divided DIFFERENT CULTURES Muddle
Classes SOCIAL STAGNATION INCOME
POLARISATION HOUSE PRICES
Living Together LEISURE SOCIETY Experience
Economy CULT OF HOME, Theme Park, Raunch
Culture Ethical Consumer, Cultural
Capital Collective Individualism Back to nature,
Health concerns Political localism
Surveillance Culture of fear
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Scenarios overview

• This has created 5 powerful narratives about
  possible future direction of development in the
  North West region over the next 20 years
• They are not mutually exclusive, but designed to
  bring to life the different qualities of life and
  economic impacts that will occur if each any
  group of assessed trends dominates the region

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This has created five distinct scenarios
Resource scarcity
East rampant
Network society
Living together
North divided
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Global resource scarcity
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(No Transcript)
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Global Resource Scarcity New energy technology
and existing resources fail to meet increased
world demand Concern at CO2 emissions and this
higher taxes and regulatory limits on resource
use More acute trading off between indulgent
behaviour and ecologically sound
behaviour Slowdown in economic growth, so both
regulatory sanctions and collective disapproval
of some behaviours
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Rampant East
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(No Transcript)
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Rampant East Global rebalancing towards East
Eastern Europe and Eastern powers like
India/ChinaRelative economic decline of UK
Capital flows east, people flows west Balance
of imports/exports and inward/outward investment
changes Cultural impact as well as economic
impact on the UK inflows from Eastern
Europe and China and India become hip!
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Networked society
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(No Transcript)
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Networked Society Communications technologies
converge and spread impacting on work and lives
More working from multiple locations, more
self-employed and guild-like arrangements More
time and income for leisure more on-line
retailing and entertainment Greater diversity of
travel patterns, use of physical infrastructure
and public spaces Members of wider and more
diverse networks/communities of interest
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North west divided
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(No Transcript)
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North West Divided Middle occupations decline
relative to top and bottom making social
progression harder Education reforms fail to
make big inroads into long tail of under
achievement Government less good than in past at
compensating for widening wage inequality More
defensive attitudes to immigration less
tolerance and social cohesion Spatial dimension
to inequality pressure on public services in
some areas acute
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Living together
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(No Transcript)
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Living together Political/social acceptance of
higher taxation and more redistribution
Government succeeds in reducing depth/extent of
people living in relative deprivation Fiscal
regime that encourages ecological community
sustainability Greater community cohesion/good
relations (though not always mixed
communities) Consumption more about experience
hedonistic leisure balanced with
sustainable behaviour without great
sanctions/enforcement
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Syndicate team work
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Exercise one

• As a team, please review the focus scenarios
  and identify elements that represent the most
  desirable future developments from the
  perspective of the topic area
• Conversely, please highlight those aspects that
  appear to create the most negative environment
• What would be the ideal composite scenario?

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Review from topic perspective __________
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Review and feedback from exercise one

• Please will one member of the team summarise your
  discussions briefly

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Exercise two

• Taking one of the three focus scenarios for
  this topic, please consider how would policy and
  practice have had to develop to maximise the
  North Wests competitive advantage in this
  version of the future?
• What does this suggest in terms of the key policy
  areas and levers that will have to be addressed
  in order to shape a more desirable future
  outcome?
• What further information do you need to better
  understand the policy implications of this
  scenario on your topic area?

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Exercise Two Scenario_______________
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Evaluation of risk factors

• Taking the same scenario, please assess how the
  following risk factors are likely to have
  affected its development through interaction
  with the underlying trends over the next 20 years
• Proliferation and spread of serious international
  conflicts and wars
• Catastrophic climate change with material impact
  on the regional environment
• Major shift to regional self government in wake
  of Scottish independence
• Any others?
• How different will it be? Does the scenario
  continue to be viable? What does this suggest in
  terms of the need for contingency planning? What
  further information do you need to decide how
  best to incorporate these risk factors into your
  planning?

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Evaluation of risk factorsScenario
____________________
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Feedback, summary and review
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Close and next steps