Uncertainty that is accepted becomes a room of possibilities

1
Uncertainty that is accepted becomes a room of
possibilities

• Change of perceptions is a continuous learning
  process resulting from actions rather than
  predictions.
• There are no tools,methods and theory that
  substitute human understanding
• There are many true pictures of reality
• The challenge is to appreciate that all pictures
  are necessary and none sufficient.

2
Knowledge systems
Purpose
Iniative/InformationEnergyChaos
OrganisationKnowledgeMaterialStructure
3
Uncertainty dimensions
4
Potential and concepts
5
The discovery process
Sagas finding costs per barrel o.e. NCS (P1
P2)
NOK
20
No. of wells / MTOE
Finding costs NCS3 years weighted average
Explorations wells, Norway Book reserve growth
from exploration in MTOE (P1P2P3) Commercial
discovery success
16
12
8
4
0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Including discoveries, revisions and IOR
Oil price(Brent)-USB/bbl
Commercialdiscoveryfrequency
6
Relations and creativity
The truth is so large that everybody can see a
part of it but nobody the whole
Aristotle
The more rigidly connected the elements of a
system are the less influence they have and the
more alien they become Von
Voerster
Through detachment we see the larger
patterns.Through compassion we receive the
particulars.Their source is the same
Tao 1
7
The learning process
8
Learning by diversity
9
Subsurface perceptions

• The subsurface is a predetermined frozen chaos
  where each point is unique.
• The perception of the external reality depends on
  the methods used and there are many true pictures
• There will always be insufficient
  data,tools,theories and methods to describe the
  actual situation
• The challenge is to combine a maximum of
  differently scaled models and perceptions,be at
  the boundary between structure and chaos.

10
Subsurface modelling
Data
Analog
Processes
LOGIC OF NATURE -The growth of natural systems
is messy, but it is finite and seeks
order. -Everything must go somewhere -Competition
discourages creation -Life is organised around a
continous change in identity -The dominant
species are slow to change -Everything is
connected-Life is occupied by creating, not
obtaining the right answers
11
Scaling of realities
Essential
Additional
Scale
Resolution/Detail/Order
12
West Shetland Top T5
13
Assosiative integration (PL 199)