Slides Mr. SeidlIngles

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Thinking about the Future
Dealing with projections into the future some
biases still prevail...
Absorbed by the technology itself, the impacts of
technology on societal change are often ignored
Lesson learned Dont be preoccupied too much
with technology push, take a balanced look also
at societal contexts and market pull
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Economic Growth and Technology Policy

• Drivers of economic growth over coming decades
• - the 4 Cs -
• increasing competition
• increasing constraints on public expenditures
• increasing complexity
• Increasing technological competencies

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Landscape of Foresight Activities
Focus on Markets and Business Environments (econom
ic, political, societal, ecological)
non-technological driving forces
Long term perspective
Scenarios of Future Societies (e.g. Political
think tanks)
Short/medium term perspective
Strategic Marketing and Trend Research
Strategic Market Research
Global Trends (e.g. World Bank, Worldwatch
Institute)
(Conventional market research
Prospective Economic Analyses
Today
10 years
15 years
5 years
Competition Analysis
Innovation and Technology Analysis
Product Impact Assessment
Technology Assessment (e.g.Offices for
technology assessment)
Technology Monitoring
Strategic Technology Monitoring
Technology Foresight (e.g. Delphi-Studies,
Technology Monitoring)
Focus on Technologies
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Foresight - Definition

• J.F. Coates, 1985
• Foresight is a process by which one comes to a
  fuller understanding of the forces shaping the
  long-term future which should be taken into
  account in policy formulation, planning and
  decision-making. Foresight is, therefore, closely
  tied to planning. It is not planning merely a
  step in planning.

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Foresight - Definition

• Ben Martin, 1995
• Foresight is a process involved systematically
  attempting to look into the longer-term future of
  science, technology, the economy and society with
  the aim of identifying the areas of strategic
  research and the emerging generic technologies
  likely to yield the greatest economic and social
  benefits.

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Foresight Why?

• Why is it important to know about future
  technologies?
• Know about future needs of society and economy.
  Knowing that, one can position a nation in a lead
  market (anticipatory intelligence).
• Competitiveness of a nation is related to a high
  standard of RD and thus, a high standard in
  future technologies. Future technologies are
  often more knowledge-based. These are markets in
  which a nation prosper in the global economy.

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Foresight Why?

• Funding agencies have to be able to set
  priorities (ideally based on consensus) due to
  fund constraints.
• Future technologies will require modified
  structures in RD. The state has to shape these
  in time (Interdisciplinarity!).
• Governmental funding has to be transparent and
  accountable to the public. At the same time,
  public understanding of science is promoted.

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What for Technology Foresight?

• Improve decision making
• Guide technology choices
• Generate alternative trajectories for future
  development
• Enhance learning and improve preparedness for
  emergencies
• Motivate change

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Foresight Methodologies and Users
Internet Forum
Delphi survey
France, Germany
Panel Discussion
Citation Index
Conference, Workshop, Brainstorming
Trend Analysis
Netherlands, Canada, Austria, Portugal, Czech
Republic
Interview
SWOT
Environmental Scanning
Scenario building
Mixed Methodologies
Critical Technologies
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UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme

• Regional Initiatives on Technology Foresight

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Regional dimension the UNIDO approach

• Foresight as a tool for regional RD programmes
• Enhance quality and effectiveness of foresight
  through multi-country networking
• Reduce costs by sharing common activities
• Awareness of global and regional trends
• Joint vision and solutions for cross-border
  problems
• Concentration of multi-country production chains
• Leverage for Least Developed Countries and MDGs

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Development objectives

• Contribute to enhancing the industrial
  competitiveness and expand trading potential
• Foster economic, environmental and social
  benefits at national and regional levels
• Definition of innovation policies and RD
  programmes

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Immediate objectives

• Raise awareness of the critical importance of
  technology change for improving competitiveness
  of industry
• Identify technology needs and priorities
• Strengthen strategic decisions capability
• Undertake regional studies for common issues
• Promote knowledge on trends and opportunities
  applied for production chains

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COMPONENTS

• Awareness building and foresight culture
• National and Regional capabilities
• Regional and International coordination
  Partnerships promotion

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UNIDO support

• International Conferences and workshops on best
  practices and methodologies (national and
  regional)
• Integration in the regional initiative
• Promote industry participation
• Task force of experts and methodology development
  during the foresight exercise
• Cooperation in the post-foresight process

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TOOLS AND METHODOLOGIES

• Book on Technology Foresight principles
• Web page (linked to UNIDO Exchange)
• CD-ROM
• Manuals
• Delphi on-line
• TF for Production Chains (national and
  supra-national)

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UNIDO Technology Foresight Programme

• Regional Initiative on Technology Foresight in
  CEE/NIS

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Policy Transfer EU -gt CEE
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IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CEE/NISTF INITIATIVE
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REGIONAL FORESIGHT STUDIES in CEE

• Impact of EU-Accession to local industries
• Agro-food industry
• Automotive industry
• Challenges and opportunities of Biotechnology
• Water resources protection
• Networking, e-business and market access
• Competitive Production Chains

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FORTHCOMMING EVENTS

• Training on TF Methodologies, Prague, Czech
  Republic, October 2004
• Seminar on TF for Bulgaria, Sofia, 26-29 November
  2004
• Seminar on TF Methods and Practices for Iran, 27
  November-02 December 2004
• Training on Organizing Foresight programmes,
  Turkey, 13-17 December 2004
• 2005 Foresight Summit - Budapest, Hungary -
  September 2005

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UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative

• Regional Initiative on Technology Foresight in
  Latin America

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REGIONAL LATIN AMERICA

• National foresight programmes
• Chile - Identify strategic economic and
  technology sectors
• Brazil - Production chains textiles, plastics,
  wood, construction
• Uruguay - Macro-sectors trends food
  biotechnology, energy and transportation and
  logistics
• Venezuela - Application of the results of the TF
  exercise

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THE FUTURE OF THE FISHERY INDUSTRY South
American Pacific Coast
REGIONAL LATIN AMERICA

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The future of the Fishery IndustrySouth American
Pacific Coast

• UNIDO, in cooperation with the Government of
  Spain, is implementing a technology foresight
  study of the productive chain of the fishery
  industry in the region of the South American
  Pacific coast.

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The future of the Fishery IndustrySouth American
Pacific Coast
Productive Chain
RESOURCES
PROCESSING
Marine
Fresh water
Canned
EXTRACTION
Aquaculture
Frozen
HUMAN CONSUMPTION
Factory ships
Cured
Seine
INDUSTRIAL INPUTS
Concentrated
Small scale
Intermediate and final agricultural goods
Hydrolysed
Aquaculture
NON - HUMAN CONSUMPTION
Industrial intermediate goods
Semi-refined oils
Refined oils
Meals and crude oils
Production services
Capital goods
Balanced food
Animal feed
Infrastructure
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The future of the Fishery IndustrySouth American
Pacific Coast
Methodology
National productive chains fleets, industry,
markets
Strengh and weakness of the environment
National Diagnostics
Regional Situation
Regional Panel
National Foresight Studies
National Panels
Consultations
Regional Panel and Report
Critical Technologies
Tools of Action
Decision Making Processes
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UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative
Conclusion

• The value of foresight is that it provides us
• the means to look ahead and reflect on the
• steps that may be required for copping with
• the coming future needs and challenges.
• Foresight studies provide us the chance not
• just to be prepared for the future but also....

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UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative

• to be able to shape it

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• UNIDO
• TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT
• PROGRAMME
• www.unido.org/foresight
• Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca
• INDUSTRY PROMOTION AND TECHNOLOGY BRANCH