Population

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Population

• Introduction to Population Analysis
• Population Dynamics
• Scenario Analysis
• Quiz yourself

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• This chapter focuses on population - one of 7
  specific sub models of International Futures
• Population is a key player in any model trying
  to create a reasonable prediction of the future
• Human intervention always suggests considerable
  uncertainty.
• IFs uses variables to create a scenario for the
  future

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Domestic and international efforts to reduce
global population have made a difference.In the
1960s the global growth rate was 2 annually,
1.4 in the 1990s and 1.25 in 2000 In the
following graphical representation, you can see
the IFs forecast for the next 100 years
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Immigration accounts for about 1/3 of the US
growth rate
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On the next slide you will see a graphical
representation and comparison of the number of
births and deaths in the USA and China for about
the next 100 years
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• The difference shown in the high and low
  predictions can
• be influenced by the following factors
• Contraceptive use and promotion of family
  planning
• programs
• Improving the status of women
• Over-all increase in the wealth of the
  population
• Controlling the rate of infections and general
  heath of the
• population
• Cultural and religious beliefs

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More than 25 of all deaths globally are
attributed to infectious and parasitical diseases
(IPDs)

• IPDs are a great cause of uncertainty in the IFs
  
• forecasts

• On the next slide you will see an IF prediction
  of AIDS deaths from three countries - India,
  Nigeria, and Thailand

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Dependent Population

• Children under 15 and adults over 65 are less
  likely to contribute economically
• Globally, 32 of todays population is under 15
  and 7 is above 65
• IF forecasts show that by 2050 the global
  numbers will be 15 below age 15 and 16 above
  age 65

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Population Dynamics

• Population Dynamics is about understanding the
  human factor in developing a scenario and
  adjusting for the uncertainty
• One of the major tools available to you in IF to
  manipulate
• growth rate is
• Cohort-component analysis
• This will allow to combine age-sex, fertility,
  and mortality distributions to get a more
  realistic picture of a possible future population

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Population Dynamics

• The focal point in a population submodel is the
  fertility and mortality rates
• A Positive Feedback Loop connects births to
  population As population rises, births rise, and
  as births increase, population grows
• A Negative Feedback Loop connects deaths to
  population

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• TFR (total fertility rate)
• Total number of births a woman can expect to have
  during a
• Lifetime
• TFRs vary across countries and across time for
  various reasons
• Income per capita
• High-income countries have access to good
  nutrition, clean water,
• Safer working conditions, better health care
• Income distribution greater income equality
  w/in a society
• lower mortality and fertility rates
• Status of women in society when women have
  greater access
• To education and to job opportunities, the
  average number of
• Children they bear in a lifetime decreases
  sharply

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Scenario Analysis

• The International Futures model allows you to
  investigate how you might help shape a future
  consistent with your own understandings and
  values
• You will be able to increase or decrease
  variables with multipliers to find the effective
  value of the variable

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• Examples of parameters you might want to
  manipulate
• Global and region-specific populations
• Birth and death rates
• Total Fertility Rates
• Global and regional life expectancy
• Dependent population

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• Keep in mind, factors such as disease or
  technological
• breakthroughs can easily alter your forecast
• You can use multipliers to force model changes
  such as
• birth control
• technology
• family planning programs
• increase or decrease in income
• improvements in the health and education of
• prospective mothers

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Conclusion

• Populaton Dynamics Population Dynamics is
  about understanding the human factor in
  developing a scenario and adjusting for the
  uncertainty
• Scenario Analysis What can you do to
  personalize your International Futures model?

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Quiz yourself

• 1. T F A good example of Scenario Analysis is to
  enter into the IF model the fertility rate and
  the regional life expectancy of Hawaii.
• 2. T F Sheer size of a population is the only
  factor that influences productivity.
• 3. ____ of all deaths globally are related to
  IPDs
• a. 10 b. 25 c. 30 d. 50
• 4. T F A change in wealth will have an effect on
  population
• 5. T F International futures can predict the
  future
• 6. T F The health of the people of a region
  directly effects the population

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Quiz yourself more

• 7. T F A government could use a population
  analysis to test the effectiveness of
  implementing a family planning program
• 8. The IF program uses parameters and ____ to
  manipulate its data
• a. multipliers b. dividers
• c. calculus d. indicators
• 9. TFR (total fertility rate) is the average
  number of births a woman can have ___
• a. In a lifetime b. In a year
• 10. ____ of the U.S. population comes from
  immigration.
• a. 1/2 b. 1/4 c. 1/3 d. 1/8
• 11. T F The focal point in a population sub
  model is the fertility and mortality rates.
• 12. A more educated region with more women in the
  workforce results in more/less births.