Steen Jorgensen

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MOVEX Demand PlanningInteract Feb 22nd- 24th 2005

• Steen Jorgensen
• Solution Design Manager, Intentia Americas
• steen.jorgensen_at_intentia.com

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Agenda

• Introduction
• MOVEX Demand Planning- Components-
  Datasets- Manual forecasting- Statistical
  forecasting- Collaborative demand planning-
  Segregation of event demand
• QA

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Supply Chain Management
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Tactical Planning Process

Strategic Management
Sales Management
Tactical Management
Demand Planning
Supply Chain Planner
Business Performance Measurement
Operational Planning
Execution
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MOVEX Demand Planning
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Stocks of Wrong Raw Finished Goods
Root Cause and Effects
Expired Stock
Poor Customer Service Levels
Obsolete stock
Too Much Capital and Space Tied Up
Stock Outs on Main Product Lines
Non-balanced Budget
Required Safety Stock Levels too High
Risk of Being De-listed by Major Customers
Rush Orders and Overtime
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What is Demand Planning?

• More then just statistical forecast
• More than just someones best guess
• More than just a look at history

• Its a combination of qualitative and
  quantitative input The sum is greater than
  the parts!!!

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MOVEX Demand Planning Components

• MOVEX Sales Budgeting- Manual / Statistical
  budgets
• MOVEX Repetitive Forecasting- Manual /
  Statistical forecasts
• Demand Planner- Multi level forecasting-
  Market Intelligence entry (i.e. event planning,
  Phase in, Phase out)- Collaborative demand
  planning
• Statistics

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MOVEX Repetitive forecasting

• Production forecasting- Manual entry (FCS350)-
  Statistical calculation (FCS001 / FCS100)-
  Forecast families (FCS400)- MDS versions
• Dataset forecasting- Manual entry (OSS420)-
  Statistical calculation (FCS440)- 6 level
  forecasting hierarchy- Planning entity
  (RPS045)- Distribution templates (OSS422)-
  Budget versions

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MOVEX Demand PlanningDatasets
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Evolution of datasets in MOVEX

• Sales statistics
• Manual Budgeting
• Statistical Budgeting (basic methods)
• Statistical Budgeting (all methods)
• Demand Planner

Demand Planner has enabled the use of datasets in
repetitive forecasting.
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MOVEX Dataset
Statistics file
Cust no Cust grp Country SKU Item grp Qty
C100 CG1 US 1234 AAA 20 C100 CG1 US 1111 AAA 30 C
200 CG2 MEX 3333 BBB 40
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Adjustment Manipulation of Dataset Forecast
Bottom Up
Middle Out
Top Down
Country
Customer
Item Group
Item number
User-defined multi-level structure View at both
aggregated and detailed level
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Demand Planner Manual dataset forecasting
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The Baseline Process

• The calculated forecast (MFCFOR) forms at all
  times a baseline for the forecasting.
• The changes made in DMP (MFMADJ) are put on top
  of calculated forecast (MFCFOR) adding up to a
  Total forecast.
• If the calculated forecast (MFCFOR) is altered in
  Movex due to changes in the historical demand
  (UCDEMA), the changes made in DMP (MFMADJ) are
  put on top of the new calculated forecast
  (MFCFOR) - the Total forecast is consequently
  changed as well.
• Manual forecast (MFMFOR) overrules the calculated
  forecast (MFCFOR) and adjustments (MFMADJ).

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Demand Planner Statistical dataset forecasting
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MOVEX Demand Planner Collaborative workflow
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Consolidating and Manipulating Plans

• Disadvantages of spreadsheets
• Prone to errors - people add delete cells,
  columns, etc.
• Complex as keeping track of different spreadsheet
  copies and versions is a nightmare
• Gathering and consolidating data is a time
  consuming process
• No integration with Movex

Sales Office / Account Manager
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Client-server architecture for a distributed
workflow
Demand Planner Manager
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Demand Planning Workflow
Central Demand Planner
Forecaster
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Demand Planner Collaboration Demo
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Segregating demand for Statistical
forecastingEvent planning
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Event demand spikes
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Demand Factor Customer order type
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Demand Factor Promotion
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Tracking effect of Promotion
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MOVEX Demand PlanningValue Proposition
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Business Value from MOVEX Demand Planning

• Increased forecast accuracy
• Consensus forecast
• Reduced lost sales
• Faster and easier planning cycle
• Minimized obsolete stocks
• Aggressive control of new product introductions,
  promotions and sales

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MOVEX Supply Chain Management
Strategic Planning
Professional Planner
Supply Chain Planner
Opportunity Analyzer
Tactical Planning
Supply Chain Planner
Demand Planning
Operational Planning
Yield Optimizer
MSP / APP
Resource Material Planning
Global CTP
Procurement
Execution
Production
Production Planner
Sales Mgmt.
e-Sales
Procurement
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QUESTIONS?