Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation

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Ministry of Water Resources and
Irrigation Planning Sector, Nile Forecasting
Center
Impacts of Global Environmental Change on Lake
Nasser (LNFDC/ICC Project) NBCBN-RE
Seminar June 13-16, 2004
WL DELFTHYDRAULICS in association with COINS,
Hull University, Royal Haskoning, WREM
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Ministry of Water Resources and
Irrigation Planning Sector, Nile Forecasting
Center
WL DELFT HYDRAULICS in association
with COINS, Hull University, Royal Haskoning,
WREM
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• August 1, the level should be less than 175m
• Maximum level 182, in emergency 183m
• Above 178m spill into the Toshka depression
• Maximum release downstream 230 MCM / day
• Minimum release downstream 80 MCM /day

• If S ? 60 then the full share is used
• If 55 ? S lt 60 a reduction of 5 is to be
  applied
• If 50 ? S lt 55 a reduction of 10 is to be
  applied
• If S lt 50 a reduction of 15 is to be applied.

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Key-Questions

• Should excess water be spilled over the TOSKHA
  spillway or should excess water be released to
  the Nile?
• Is it possible to use a different reservoir
  operation strategy to maximise the benefits of
  the system?
• Are the reservoir operation strategies,
  determined for the current conditions, robust to
  process expected future inflows
• What are the consequences of sea level rise for
  the Nile delta?

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What changes can be expected?
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Merowe Rsv (P)
Main Nile
Khartoum
Kashm el Girba Rsv
Roseires Rsv
White Nile
Sennar Rsv
Blue Nile
Gebal Aulia Rsv
Lake Tana
Machar Swamp
Sudd Swamp
Lake Albert
Machar Rsv
Lake Victoria
Lake Kyoga
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Gains and losses in the Nile Basin
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Rainfall on the Nile basin for different models
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Comparison future rainfall for different models
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GCM Output to a hydrological model
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Activities Phase 1
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Comparison effects Climate and other changes
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Standard communication between hydrologist and
water manager on Climate Change and Sea Level Rise
Manager
Hydrologist
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Standard communication between hydrologist and
water manager on Climate Change and Sea Level Rise
manager
Hydrologist
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Flexibility of water management
Flexible
Not Flexible
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Some conclusions and recommendations

• Inflow Lake Nasser very sensitive to any change
  in rainfall in the basin
• Effects of small changes in precipitation easily
  exceed the effects large changes in basin
  infrastructure
• On local-national scale adaptation to larger
  variability may be the first step to good water
  management practice to Global change impacts
• On a regional-international scale integrated
  river basin management may be the second step