NW Natural Gas Market Outlook Dan Kirschner, Executive Director Northwest Gas Association

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NW Natural Gas Market OutlookDan Kirschner,
Executive DirectorNorthwest Gas Association
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5335 SW Meadows Rd., 220 Lake Oswego, OR
97035 [phone] www.nwga.org NWGA
Members Avista Corporation Cascade Natural Gas
Co. Intermountain Gas Co. NW Natural Puget Sound
Energy Duke Energy Gas Transmission Terasen
Gas TransCanadas GTN System Williams NW Pipeline
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Gas a Vital Part of NW Energy Scene
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Recent Gas Demand
2005 BC estimated from preliminary StatCan data
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Generating Capacity by Fuel
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Actual Load Composition
4.3 overall reduction in gas demand from 840
MMdth/year to 804 MMDth/year
Res 2 Gen 11 Ind -12 Com -1
Source EIA, StatCan
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Demand Forecast
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Gas Demand Forecast(2006-07 through 2010-11)
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Demand Forecast by Sector
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Projected Load Composition 2010-2011
Change from 2005 Residential 3 Commercial 1 I
ndustrial 4 Generation
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Northwest Gas Supply
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Supplies Flow to Demand
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Gas Production by Region
Source Lippman Consulting via AGA
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Production per U.S. Rig
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Productive CapacitySource Energy and
Environmental Analysis, Inc.
Bubble
Tight Market
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Price Correlation
Shut in Rockies production
Source Platts Gas Daily and EIA Natural Gas
Weekly Update
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Growing Demand, Slowing Supply
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NorthwestLNG Proposals

• ? PortWestward LNG
• ? Skipanon LNG
• ? Jordan Cove LNG
• Northern Star LNG
• Tansy Point
• Kitimat LNG
• WestPac Terminal

• Why LNG?
• Vast reserves
• no local market
• pipelines not viable
• decreasing costs
• Challenges include
• Local acceptance
• Regulatory/Permitting
• Commercial considerations
• economics/financing
• takeaway infrastructure
• worldwide competition
• supplier commitment

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Northwest Gas Infrastructure
100
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Capacity to Serve NW Demand Average Winter Day
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Capacity to Serve Demand Region-wide Peak
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I-5 Extended Winter Base/Cold
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I-5 Extended Winter Base/Low
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I-5 Extended Winter High/Cold
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I-5 Extended Winter High/Low