Australian Communications Authority

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Australian Communications Authority

• Vision 20/20
• Project Road Map
• Purpose of the Day

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forecasting can be wrong
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(No Transcript)
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we can sometimes see only what we expect to see
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This picture was originally published in Puck
magazine in 1915 as a cartoon entitled "My Wife
and My Mother-in-Law."
Also - Tsukuba - Science city
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We will be working within a scenario building
framework
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Over three workshops
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Relating to our focal question
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What is the future of communications in
Australia?and

• What are the implications for regulation?

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Using some simple tools

• To derive the key factors affecting the future of
  communications and the impact of these on
  regulation
• STEEPs framework
• Critical uncertainties
• Futures triangle
• Stakeholders analyses
• Worldviews
• A playroom

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To guide a rich process of strategic conversation
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What patterns and trends can I see in these
events?
What are the systems and structures that
determine these patterns?
What is the prevailing worldview that enables
these structures to create the patterns, trends
and events?
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To consider our thinking about
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a futures cone
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what assumptions we have about how the future
will play out
Key Concepts types of change quantum, cyclical,
exponential, incremental
Sources James Dewar
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What is inevitable and what is uncertain
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Discontinuities
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and the unthinkable Wild Cards
Key Concepts Continuity and discontinuity,
inevitable surprise, history-less events
Sources John Petersen Peter Schwartz
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and change our approach to analysis
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Afternoon session
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Afternoon activities

• Group activities divided into two parts
• All participants to complete STEEP and critical
  uncertainties
• Different groups to complete one of four
  activities
• Futures triangle
• Stakeholders
• Worldviews
• Futures at play
• This permits us to develop a deeper understanding
  of how the issues, events and people that
  influence the way the future may play out
• The most uncertain of these factors will be used
  to build the scenarios which are credible,
  equally plausible images of the future

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Scanning Framework

• S social
• T technological
• E economic
• E environmental
• P political

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Critical Uncertainties
Very certain
Complacency zone
Travel zone
Very important
Lower importance
Early Warning zone
Danger zone
Very uncertain
Uncertainty/ Importance Grid
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Push, pull and weight
Pulls What attracts us about the future?
Pushes What makes things move forward?
Weights What keeps us from achieving our goals?
What causes one future to happen instead of
another?
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Stakeholders
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World ViewsWho is the hero?
Key concepts worldviews, mental models, mental
microcosms
Source Pierre Wack