Integrated Assessments

1
Derivation of Key Data Themes to Implement the
National Fire Plan / Cohesive Strategy for North
ern Idaho and Western Montana
Flathead National Forest, USDA Forest Service
2
Northern RegionCohesive Strategy Team

• Objectives
• Develop process tool to derive integrated
  priorities
• Develop data layers in R1 to implement Cohesive
  Strategy

3
Cohesive Strategy

• Protecting People and Sustaining Resources in
  Fire-Adapted Ecosystems a Cohesive Strategy

Cohesive (adj.) that which is logically
connected, united, or orderly. Integrate (v.)
to make whole by bringing all parts together to
unite.
4
Integration
Presto a miracle occurs
Fire Risk
Water Quality
Recreation
Bulltrout
Grizzly Bear
Weeds
Community Resiliency
Public Property
Forest Health
Lynx
Human Health
5
Integration

• Requirements
• Common goal (e.g., attitude)
• Common terminology
• Standardize data
• Common data reporting unit

6
Cohesive Strategy

• Forest Service response to GAO report
• Tiered to the GPRA Strategic Plan (Govt
  Performance and Results Act)
• Strategy for prioritizing hazardous fuels
  treatments to implement the NFP
• Objectives are integrated
• New USDA-FS/USDI

7
Cohesive Strategy

• Fuel Reduction Objectives
• Improve resiliency/sustainability of forests
  grasslands
• Conserve watersheds, species, and biodiversity
• Reduce wildland fire suppression costs, losses,
  and damages
• Better ensure fire fighter public safety

8
Cohesive Strategy

• Fuel Reduction Priorities treat areas at risk
  from severe wildfire
• Wildland-urban interface
• Accessible municipal watersheds
• TE species habitats
• Low-severity/high-frequency fire regimes

9
Status, Risk, and Opportunity

• Status existing condition of an ecosystem
  component (science)
• Risk probability that status will decline from
  natural disturbances (science)
• Opportunity probability that risk can be
  reduced through management actions (planning)

10
Risk - A function of

• Probability of exposure to an event
• Probability of ignition
• Probability of floods
• Probability of negative consequences resulting
  from that event
• Severe fire or flood effects
• Threats to firefighter and public safety
• Threats to species

11
Analysis Questions

• What data are needed to address NFP/CS
  priorities?
• Can these data be derived Consistently and
  Continuously across large geographic extents?
• Can we summarize these data at multiple scales
  (e.g., Compatibility)? Can the data be
  integrated?
• What is the appropriate reporting unit?

HINT Integration must be planned for!!
12
Analysis Questions

• Where are
• people at risk?
• forests and grasslands at risk?
• watersheds at risk?
• species habitats at risk?
• integrated risks?
• integrated opportunities?
• integrated priorities?

13
Analysis Objectives

• Want to couch things in relative terms not
  absolutes
• Point managers to the right subwatersheds to do
  work
• Want to tell a story what landscapes have
  similar status, risk, and opportunities?

14
Data Needs - Fire

• Probability of ignition
• Historical fire regimes
• Current fire severity
• Fire-regime condition class
• Fire behavior
• Wildland-urban interface
• People-at-risk
• Ecosystem risk (i.e., a departure of fire effects)

15
Ignition Probability

• Fire Occurrence Data
• Forest Service
• R1 1960 to present
• West MT 1940 to present
• Dept of Interior variable
• MT DNRC 1980 to present
• ID DSL 1982 to present
• Probability is derived from interpolation
  technique using the fire start locations.

16
Fire Occurrence 1982 - 2000
Lightning Human-caused
17
Fire Occurrence 20-yrs
Lightning Human-caused
18
Ignition Probability20-yrs
low low to mod mod mod to high high
19
Ignition Probability
low low to mod mod mod to high high
20
Historical Fire Regimes

• Northern Rocky Fire History Database
• 95 studies
• 1440 samples

21
NL MS1 MS2 MS3 SR
Barretts Fire Severity Classes
High Severity
Low Severity
Moderate Severity
Frequency ()
Over-story Replacement ()
22
Statistics of MFI for Fire Regimes in the
Northern Rockies
NL non-lethal MS1 mixed-severity, short
interval MS2 mixed-severity, long interval
MS3 mixed-severity, variable interval SR1
stand-replacement, short interval SR2
stand-replacement, long interval.
23
Deriving Historical Fire Regimes

• Strata
• Subregions (xeric mesic)
• PVTs (n 35)
• Slope (5 classes)
• Aspect (2 classes)

24
Historical Fire Regimes
25
Deriving Current Fire Severity

• Strata
• Historical fire regime
• Cover types (n 50)
• fire tolerance (n 3)
• Size class (n 4)
• Canopy cover (n 4)
• Slope (n 2)

26
Current Fire Severity
27
Deriving Fire Regime Condition Class

• Departure of fire regimes
• Difference between historical fire regime and
  current fire severity.
• Proxy to the probability of severe fire effects.

Historical Fire Regime
Current Fire Severity
28
Fire-regime Condition Class

• Class 1 Functioning The system has not
  missed any fire intervals. Low risk of losing
  key ecosystem components.
• Class 2 Functioning-at-Risk - The system has
  missed one or more fire intervals. Moderate risk
  of losing key ecosystem components.
• Class 3 Not Functioning - The system has
  missed several fire intervals. High risk of
  losing key ecosystem components.

29
Fire-regime Condition Class
30
DerivingEcosystems-at-Risk
31
Ecosystems-at-Risk
Derived from FRCC Ignition prob.
32
Ecosystems-at-Risk (HUC6)
33
Communities at Risk

• Data Needs
• Wildland-Urban Interface
• Fire Behavior
• Ignition Probability

34
Human population density

• Dasymetric mapping of 2000 Census
• Classes
• Uninhabited
• 1 to 5 /sq.mi.
• 6 to 25
• 26 to 100
• 100 to 300
• gt300

35
Population Density (2000)
36
Modeling Crown Fire Behavior with FVS/FFE

• Data Source FIA N 3721
• Strata PVTCTSCCCSLOPE
• Number of strata to populate 7725
• Dominant fire type assigned to strata
• Percent strata populated 18
• Percent geographic area populated 62

37
Modeling Crown Fire Behavior with FVS/FFEWeather
/ Fuel Moisture Parameters
38
Extreme Fire Behavior
39
Crown Fire Potential
Likely Fire Behavior
40
Crown Fire Potential
Derived from Ignition prob. Fire behave
41
Communities-at-Risk
Population Density
42
Communities-at-Risk From Crown Fire
Low Low Mod Moderate Mod High High
Derived from Ignition prob. Fire behave Popden
43
Communities-at-Risk (HUC6)
Derived from Fireprob Firebehave Popden
44
Analytical Concerns

• Fire regimes are not stand-level process derive
  landscape-level FRCC. Simulation modeling?
• Ignition probability
• best extent to assess pattern?
• Crown Fire fire type vs. crowning index?
• Fire weather?
• Refine population density model
• Current analysis protocol tree centric
• Accuracy of base layers (e.g., PVT SILC).

45
Institutional Concerns

• Tradition
• Protect my fiefdom syndrome
• Not built in my backyard syndrome

46
You think youre confused?!