INTERVENORS PRESENTATION

1
INTERVENORS PRESENTATION

• Ontario Energy Board Hearing on the Ontario Power
  Authoritys Integrated Power System Plan
• Board File EB-2007-0707

2
Intervenors

• The Northwestern Ontario Municipal Association
  (NOMA)
• The Town of Atikokan
• The City of Thunder Bay

3
Statement of Purpose

• Understand and consider the unique nature of the
  electrical system in Northwestern Ontario
• Appreciate that the IPSP fails to comply with the
  Ministers directive on several material points

4
Concerns

• The concerns of the three Intervenors are
  threefold
• The IPSP as it stands does not provide for
  transmission line upgrades that must be put in
  place the OPA fails to provide any justification
  for not selecting upgrades that in northwestern
  Ontario would significantly improve system
  efficiency in northwestern Ontario.
• Secondly, the IPSP fails to provide for
  replacement generation for the two thermal
  generators it proposes to shut down in
  northwestern Ontario, contrary to the requirement
  in section 5 of the Ministers directive.
• 3. The proposed replacement of the 517 megawatts
  (MW) of energy that would be lost in the shutdown
  of the two thermal generating stations does not
  provide for system reliability required in
  section 5 of the Ministers Directive.

5
Electricity Act, (Section 1(a))
to ensure the adequacy, safety, sustainability,
and reliability of electricity supply in Ontario
through responsible planning and management of
electricity resources, supply and demand

• Obviously underpins the goals set out insection
  5 of the Ministers Directive for an IPSP that
• ensures adequate generating capacity
• Ensures electrical system reliability, and
• Calls for replacement generation

6
Intervenors are requesting, pursuant to section
25.30(5) of the Electricity Actrefer all
portions of the IPSP affecting northwestern
Ontario back to the OntarioPower Authority for
reconsideration as to

• How system efficiency and integration of new
  supply (section 6 of the Ministers directive)
  can be achieved by further upgrades to the
  transmission system in northwestern Ontario
• How adequate generating capacity and system
  reliability are to be maintained through
  replacement generation in northwestern Ontario
  upon shutting down the two thermal generating
  plants
• How levels of energy sufficient to meet base load
  capacity in northwestern Ontario can be
  maintained upon shutting down the two plants

7
The Issue

• In the alternative to having the Board refer the
  portions of the IPSP back for reconsideration,
  the three Intervenors seek to have the following
  added to the list of issues to be considered by
  the Board in Phase II of this hearing
• Does the IPSP plan for
• Replacement generation
• Adequate generating capacity
• Strengthening of the transmission system
• System efficiency, and
• System reliability
• in the substantively different circumstances of
  northwestern Ontario?
• In deciding on either alternative, the Board will
  need to understand more about northwestern Ontario

8
Understanding Northwestern Ontario
9
(No Transcript)
10
Kenora
Wawa
Thunder Bay
Ottawa
Toronto
Windsor
11
Kenora
Wawa
Thunder Bay
Ottawa
Toronto
Windsor
12
Kenora
Wawa
Thunder Bay
Ottawa
Toronto
Windsor
13
Kenora
Wawa
Thunder Bay
Ottawa
Toronto
Windsor
14
Kenora
Wawa
Thunder Bay
Ottawa
Toronto
Windsor
15
Kenora
Wawa
Thunder Bay
Ottawa
Toronto
Windsor
16
Kenora
Wawa
Thunder Bay
Ottawa
788 km corridor Population 9.5 million
Toronto
Windsor
17
785 km corridor Population 250,000
Kenora
Wawa
Thunder Bay
Ottawa
788 km corridor Population 9.5 million
Toronto
Windsor
18
Generating Capacity

• Northwestern Ontario
• 1197 megawatts of installed generating capacity
• Less than 5 of the 27,000 megawatt installed
  capacity for the entire province

19
Source of Generation

• 680 megawatts of installed hydro-electric
  generating capacity
• 517 megawatts of installed thermal generating
  capacity

20
Base Load Generation

• Hydro-electric generation
• Very economical
• Not reliable
• Current three-year drought conditions actual
  generation, on occasion, been no greater than 30
  of the installed capacity
• Hydro-electric generation is not a reliable
  component in base load capacity

21
Base Load Generation

• Essential to understand 517 megawatts of thermal
  generation constitutes the base load capacity in
  northwestern Ontario
• Southern Ontario relies on nuclear generation for
  its base load capacity

22
Transmission Map
23
Transmission Map

• Northwestern Ontario has only 5 of its
  transmission lines looped. 95 of the
  northwestern Ontario Grid is in radial circuits.
• Transmission map shows only 40 of the land mass
  of northwestern Ontario

24
Ratio of Industrial to Residential Demand

• Southern Ontario70-80 residential
• Northwestern Ontarioindustrial use constitutes
  the largest sector
• 70 of electricity customers are Industrial

25
Scale of Industrial Users

• Scale of the industrial users in northwestern
  Ontario is comparatively much larger than the
  typical industrial user in southern Ontario
• One paper mill consumes between 100 and 210
  megawatts of power
• The largest one of the paper mills is typically
  among the highest energy users in the province
• There are five paper mills operating in
  northwestern Ontario today
• Those five paper mills operating today consume
  the equivalent to something in the order of ten
  to fifteen automobile assembly plants

26
Inadequate Supply
ERCO Chemical Plant
27
Inadequate Supply
ERCO Plant

• High Amperage
• Supply had to be on a radial line that also
  served two paper mills which, conversely,
  required high voltage.
• Decided that it would make more sense for them to
  consolidate their operations in Calgary
• Ship their product over 2,000 km to the paper
  mill in Thunder Bay
• IPSP as it is currently framed is inadequate for
  the demand needs of northwestern Ontario

28
Boreal Forest Map
Hudson Bay Lowlands
North of the Undertaking
Boreal Forest
Great LakesSt. Lawrence Forest
Deciduous Forest
29
Mining in Northwestern Ontario
Approximately 300 active exploration programs
4 producing gold mines 1 producing PGE mine
McFaulds Lake
Red Lake
Greenstone
Rainy River
30
Mining in Northwestern Ontario
44.6 of the active mining claims in Ontario
31
New Industrial Users

• Supply for an electric smelting plant. Currently
  such a plant would be impossible without
  additional generation transmission supply over
  and above the proposed replacement supply 517
  megawatts of the two thermal generating stations

32
NWO as Electrical Island
33
Where Northwestern Ontario Stands in Compliance
with Ministers Directives

• A) Conservation targets for northwestern Ontario

34
Where Northwestern Ontario Stands in Compliance
with Ministers Directives

• Conservation and Demand Management
• Ministers Directive targets 1,350 megawatts cut
  from peak demand for the entire province by 2010
  and 3,600 more megawatts by 2025
• The problem has already been dealt with in
  northwest Ontario

35
Where Northwestern Ontario Stands in Compliance
with Ministers Directives

• For their own economic necessity
• Cooperated with both the former Ontario Hydro and
  local utilities to level off periods of peak
  demand in the northwestern Ontario grid
• Some 200 megawatts in peak demand eliminated from
  the northwestern Ontario system some fifteen
  years ago
• By production shifting
• Industrial users cooperate in shifting key
  elements of their production to other time
  periods
• Irony, because northwestern Ontario is an
  electrical island.
• Surplus power saved in leveling peak demands in
  northwestern Ontario cannot be exported to
  Southern Ontario

36
Where Northwestern Ontario Stands in Compliance
with Ministers Directives

• B) Residential Conservation
• Southern Ontario
• Much of the conservation targets set by the
  Ministry will likely be met through more
  effective residential use.
• Residential use constitutes an estimated 70-80
  of the demand as in southern Ontario
• Reduction in demand will undoubtedly be large

37
Where Northwestern Ontario Stands in Compliance
with Ministers Directives

• B) Residential Conservation
• Northwestern Ontario
• The comparatively small residential use (some
  20-30 of demand) correspondingly, small
  reduction in a correspondingly small segment of
  Ontarios energy demand
• Less than 5
• There is no recognition in the IPSP of how these
  facts affect the achievability of the targets for
  northwestern Ontario

38
Renewable Energy

• Biomass
• Economic necessity industrial users in
  northwestern Ontario have and continue to develop
  biomass generation
• For example, one of northwestern Ontarios paper
  mills produces as much as 50 megawatts of its own
  210 megawatts electrical energy needs
• Difficult, therefore, for the OPA to propose
  anything not already being implemented out of
  economic necessity
• Mandate of every mill manager appointed in the
  last fifteen years to cut production costs
• Especially given Ontarios uncompetitive
  electricity costs

39
Renewable Energy

• Wind Power Generation
• Planned Wind Generation
• IPSP proposes wind power installation
• One for example is on the shores of Lake Nipigon
  in northwest Ontario
• Other wind power developments elsewhere in
  northwestern Ontario
• Useful only as additional energy
• Unpredictability of wind means that its energy
  generation cannot be considered part of the base
  load capacity
• Industrial users need to be able to rely upon
  secure and adequate base load supply
• Lack of suitable Inertial Reserve in Wind Farms

40
Renewable Energy

• Related to dynamic behaviour and stability
• Due to the fact that wind generators will replace
  conventional generators, possible problems in the
  considered zones may arise related to
• Reduced short circuit level, which could have an
  impact on line protection.
• Risk of local voltage collapse or risk of
  prolonged voltage sags during grid faults
• Reduced system inertia could impact stability in
  island operation, if relevant
• Small signal stability could be affected

Exhibit C-11-2 Attachment 29.9 page 28click here
for citation
41
Renewable Energy

• In the NE and NW zones lack of sustained short
  circuit power can become a problem. This would
  have an impact in situations, when most of the
  demand can be covered by the wind generation in
  the zone. If in this case the majority of
  synchronous generators are stopped due to the
  limited export capacity and a line fault occurs
  in the transmission system, the fault
  contribution from one side may decay, so that
  line distance protections cannot detect faults.
• In the NE and NW zones, the behaviour of wind
  turbines during grid faults can have significant
  impact with risk of local voltage collapse in the
  worst case or prolonged voltage dips due to
  delayed voltage recovery in the best case.

42
Renewable Energy

• Solar Generation
• Solar generation will be welcome as additional
  energy
• Cannot be considered part of the capacity

43
Renewable Energy

• Hydro-electric Generation
• Many potential sites for new hydro-electric
  generation within the northwestern Ontario
  watersheds have been identified
• The largest would produce 20 to 25 megawatts of
  electricity
• Exception is Little Jackfish 132 megawatts
• Considered peak power only, as water reserve is
  exhausted in 4 hours

44
Renewable Energy

• Hydro-electric Generation
• Desirable for local small-scale use
• Contributing very economically to the overall
  supply of energy
• None would be suitable for the base load capacity
  industrial users must be able to rely upon
• Caution
• Drought conditions that can and have reduced
  production to around 30 of installed capacity

45
Demand Management Uniquely Different

• Generally Demand Management will refer to the
  efficient management of existing demand
• For example, northwestern Ontario has succeeded
  in leveling peak demands
• Essential to realize that Demand Management in a
  region that develops natural resources is
  entirely different
• The Demand to be planned for in northwestern
  Ontario
• Is beyond existing users
• Is beyond demographic projections
• Demand Management to be planned for northwestern
  Ontario means planning to encourage development

46
Issues for Phase IIRadial Circuits

• Radial circuitry that constitutes 95 needs to be
  substantially upgraded
• Looping the circuits in order to ensure more
  stable and secure supply to industrial users
• The IPSP as it is presently drafted has no
  provision for looping any of the remote radial
  transmission lines

47
Northern Ontario Transmission System
48
Red Lake Loop

• Loop of the Red Lake line with the Musselwhite
  tap of the Ear Falls by Pickle Lake 115 kv
  circuit could be installed
• Such a loop would significantly increase the
  stability and security of supply for
• Existing Mines
• Municipal ties
• Proposed manufacturing of value added wood
  products

49
Longlac \ Geralton Loop

• Loop of the Longlac line with the Terrace Bay
  line could be installed
• Such a loop would make the same improvements for
  similar customers in that part of northwestern
  Ontario

50
Without Such Loops

• Without such loops, at present, existing radial
  transmission supply means
• That downtime maintenance must be conducted only
  on statutory holidays
• In the event of any fault in the radial
  transmission lines there is no alternate source
  of supply
• Inevitable result is unanticipated downtime
• Havoc with production schedules of the industrial
  customer
• Prolonged disruption to the residential customers

51

• Enhancing the security and stability of the
  electricity, a Red Lake looped and Longlac
  looped, also enhance the possibility of radial
  transmission from that loop
• First Nation communities allowing them to replace
  the diesel plants
• To increase their capacity to develop local
  industries
• To assist in development of renewable generation,
  such as small hydro-electric generation sites

52
Inertia
53
Inertia

• Southern Ontario
• Large number of looped transmission lines
• Many generating sources (especially large nuclear
  generator turbines)
• Transformers
• Other equipment
• Widely distributed industrial customers
• Create a very large inherent inertia in the
  southern Ontario grid itself

• Northern Ontario
• By Contrast
• General absence of looped transmission lines
• Many small hydro-electric generating stations
• Even if wind turbine generation with their
  relatively small turbines are included
• All of these add little to inertia in the grid
• It is the two thermal generating plants that give
  meaningful stability to the grid

54
Energy Production Plus Inertia

• Section 5 of the Ministers Directive speaks of
  replacement generation and adequate generating
  capacity
• Fundamental importance to appreciate the two
  thermal generating stations contribute BOTH
• 517 MW, and
• provide an estimated 40 inertia in the
  northwestern Ontario grid
• The Minister does NOT speak of replacement of
  energy only but of generation (that is energy
  PLUS inertia)
• The IPSP provides only for energy replacement

55
Remember the problems a few minutes ago related
to dynamic behaviour and stability in wind
generation?
56
Energy Production Plus Inertia

• Due to the fact that wind generators will replace
  conventional generators, possible problems in the
  considered zones may arise related to
• Reduced short circuit level, which could have an
  impact on line protection
• Risk of local voltage collapse or risk of
  prolonged voltage sags during grid faults
• Reduced system inertia could impact stability in
  island operation, if relevant
• Small signal stability could be affected

Exhibit C-11-2 Attachment 29.9 page 28click here
for citation
57
LACK of RELIABILITY in Transmission Supply with
the IPSP

• Lack of system reliability Transmission supply
  is not stable
• The IPSP as it is currently drafted proposes
  replacement of base load generation currently had
  in the thermal generating stations with a
  transmission supply that, in effect, is
  purporting to be the base load supply

58
LACK of RELIABILITY in Transmission Supply with
the IPSP

• In addition to the inertia taken out of the
  northwestern Ontario grid, and not replaced, the
  supply of energy through transmission supply has
  the following problems
• Transmission lines are vulnerable
• The 230 kv line from Manitoba to Marathon would
  be the transmission source
• Like all such transmission lines
• Vulnerable to transient and permanent faults
• Standard practice in electrical storms to reduce
  transmission in the area of the storm to zero in
  order to protect the lines and related equipment

59
Electrical Storms

• In northwestern Ontario it is important
• That transmission of electricity in the 230 kv
  line would be typically from west to east
• That also is typically the course of an
  electrical storm
• As a result there is
• No reason to think that a transmission feed can
  be considered a reliable source of base load
  supply for northwestern Ontario even of energy
  alone (forgetting inertia for the moment)

60
Instability Over Length

• A maximum 350 megawatt load placed on the 230 kv
  transmission line will by its nature cause the
  supply of energy to be subject to voltage drops
• That must be compensated for by using capacitors
• This will create instability and insecurity for
  industrial users

61
Likely Source of Energy

• Unlikely that the transmission feed will ever
  come up from southern Ontario
• Southern Ontario, obviously, needs everything it
  can generate
• The transmission feed on the 230 kv transmission
  line will, in effect, come east from Manitoba
• Impractical to theorize that the nuclear base
  load supply in southern Ontario can be considered
  to constitute a base load supply in northwestern
  Ontario
• The 300 megawatt load limit of the tie lines at
  Marathon prevents that

62
Manitoba Energy

• Manitobas hydro-electric generation is
  susceptible to a drought as is northwestern
  Ontarios
• Typically Manitoba experiences drought before
  northwestern Ontario
• Most of Manitobas current hydro-electric
  generation is largely pre-sold on long-term
  supply contracts to the USA
• When Manitobas own needs exceed available
  hydro-electric demand, those deficiencies are
  covered by calling on Manitobas alternate
  supply, North Dakota

63
Manitoba Energy

• Unless this OPA can demonstrate otherwise, it
  must be assumed that any additional large amounts
  of megawatts drawn on the transmission line from
  Manitoba in order to replace the thermal
  generation shutdown in the two generating
  stations in northwestern Ontario will actually
  end up coming from North Dakota
• The source of North Dakotas export energy is
  coal fired generation

64
Lack of System Reliability

• Transmission Supply is NOT Sufficient

65
2008 Status Quo
1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
990
Load Coal Hydroelectric East West Tie
Line Manitoba Tie Line Surplus Shortfall
Load
66
2008 Status Quo
1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
990
Load Coal Hydroelectric East West Tie
Line Manitoba Tie Line Surplus Shortfall
517
Load
Supply
Excess
67
2008 Status Quo
1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
207 MW
1197
990
Load Coal Hydroelectric East West Tie
Line Manitoba Tie Line Surplus Shortfall
680
517
Load
Supply
Excess
68
2014 The Problem
1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
990
Load Coal Hydroelectric East West Tie
Line Manitoba Tie Line Surplus Shortfall
680
Load
Supply
69
2014 The Problem
1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
300
990
Maximum Transferable
Load Coal Hydroelectric East West Tie
Line Manitoba Tie Line Surplus Shortfall
680
Load
Supply
70
2014 The Problem
1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
?
10
300
990
Maximum Transferable
Load Coal Hydroelectric East West Tie
Line Manitoba Tie Line Surplus Shortfall
680
Load
Supply
Shortfall
71
2014 The Problem Growth
1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
?
?
10
?
300
990
Maximum Transferable
Load Coal Hydroelectric East West Tie
Line Manitoba Tie Line Surplus Shortfall
680
Load
Supply
Shortfall
72
2014 Worst Case
1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
990
Load Coal Hydroelectric East West Tie
Line Manitoba Tie Line Surplus Shortfall
226
Drought
Load
Supply
Shortfall
73
2014 Worst Case
1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
990
Load Coal Hydroelectric East West Tie
Line Manitoba Tie Line Surplus Shortfall
Maximum Transferable
300
226
Drought
Load
Supply
Shortfall
74
2014 Worst Case
1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
?
990
464
Load Coal Hydroelectric East West Tie
Line Manitoba Tie Line Surplus Shortfall
300
Maximum Transferable
226
Drought
Load
Supply
Shortfall
75
2014 Worst Case
1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
?
164
990
300
Maximum Transferable
Load Coal Hydroelectric East West Tie
Line Manitoba Tie Line Surplus Shortfall
300
226
Drought
Load
Supply
Shortfall
76
2014 Worst Case Growth
1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
?
?
?
990
464
Load Coal Hydroelectric East West Tie
Line Manitoba Tie Line Surplus Shortfall
300
Maximum Transferable
226
Load
Supply
Shortfall
77
Conclusion

• The IPSP as it is currently drafted fails to
  address northwestern Ontario as a sustainable
  system for electrical supply

Electricity Act, (Section 1(a))
to ensure the adequacy, safety, sustainability,
and reliability of electricity supply in Ontario
through responsible planning and management of
electricity resources, supply and demand
The statutory regime is relevant. It cannot be
thought to be within the purview of the Board to
approve something that is in contravention of the
Electricity Act.
78
Conclusion

• 2. The IPSP as it is currently drafted fails to
  meet the goals of the Ministers Directive that
  the IPSP provide for
• Replacement generation
• Adequate generating capacity
• Strengthening of the transmission system
• System efficiency, and System reliability

79
Conclusion

• The Intervenors
• NOMA (that is the Northwestern Ontario Municipal
  Association)
• The Town of Atikokan
• The City of Thunder Bay
• Urge the Board to review the IPSP as it pertains
  to northwestern Ontario with a view to directing
  the Ontario Power Authority, pursuant to section
  25.30(5) to further consider the plan as it
  pertains to northwestern Ontario

80
In The Alternative

• These Intervenors propose the following be added
  as an Issue for consideration by the Board in
  Phase II
• Does the IPSP plan for
• Replacement generation
• Adequate generating capacity
• Strengthening of the transmission system
• System efficiency, and
• Power quality and System reliability
• In the substantively different circumstances of
  northwestern Ontario?