Tran Thi Ut

1
The Impact of Green Revolution on Rice
Production in Vietnam

• Tran Thi Ut
• Faculty of Economics,
• UAF, HCM City, VN
• Green Revolution In Asia And Its Transferability
  To Africa
• Tokyo, Japan
• 8-10, December 2002

2
Introduction

• The stagnation rice production in 1960s-70s
• Rapid growth of rice production in 1980s-90s
• The effects of miracle rice and the Doi Moi
  policies in rice production from 1980s-1990s
• Purposes of the paper
• to assess the relative contribution of the Doi
  Moi and other reform policies using regional
  data
• to explore whether GR has been sustainable in
  the country ?
• to examine the yield gap between favorable and
  unfavorable rice production area
• to inquire what factor affect yield using HH
  level data

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MV Adoption and Yield Changes in VN

• MV adoption
• Southern VN
• -May 1966, IR8 was first introduced and was
  renamed to Than Nong 8 (TN8)(Than Nong Miracle
  rice),
• - in 1975 33 rice area with MV
• Northern VN
• - In 1968 IR 8 was introduced and was renamed
  to Nong Nghiep 8 (NN8) (Nong Nghiep
  Agriculture)
• - IR8 was adopted to the winter-spring 1968,
  covered 50 rice area

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Table 1. Adoption of MVs and TVs in Southern
Vietnam, 1968-75
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Problem of MV1 and the introduction of MV2

• 1972 IR8 IR5 were affected by BPH and were
  replaced by TN73-1 (IR1529-6-80), TN73-2 (IR
  1561-22-8), IR26 , IR30.
• 1978 700,000 ha of rice areas planted to MVs in
  MRD were damaged by BPH and ragged stunt disease,
  and IR36 with strong resistance to new BPH was
  rapidly introduced.
• Can Tho University developed a new series of MVs
  with good grain quality and strong resistance to
  new BPH from 300 line crosses with cultivars
  containing the BPH-resistance gene from IRRI.
• IR42 has shown great suitability and virtually
  replace the traditional medium height rice
  varieties in saline-affected rainfed rice field
  with semi-deep water in MRD.
• 1980s IR1820-210-2 (IRRI) and CR203(VASI) with
  highly resistant to blast were widely planted for
  the blast prone areas in northern VN.

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Fig 1a. Changes in MV Adoption and Yields of Rice
per Hectare in Northern Vietnam
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  Fig. 1a. Changes in MV Adoption and Yields
of Rice per Hectare in Southern Vietnam 1980-98
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Fig.2 Location of major rice growing regions
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Table 2. Changes in Total Rice Area and MV
Adoption by Major Ecological Region in Selected
Years from 1980 to 1998
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Table 3. Yield of MVs and TVs (tons/ha) by Major
Ecological Region , 1980-1998
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Development of MVs in VN

• Shorten the growth duration
• OM1490 , OMCS96 (85-90 days)
• Saline tolerance
• THDB (mutant from TVs)
• Developed a series MVs with resistance to pest
  and diseases for IRG areas, and tolerance of
  salinity and acid sulfate for rainfed areas

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Estimation Results of Yield Regression

• The model
• Ln yit a0 a1 MVit S ai MVit (Regional
  Dummy)i
• S bi (Regional Dummy)i S gt (Year Dummy)t eit
  .
• The results
• MV adoption dummy is positive and significant in
  1980-98
• MVregional dummies are all negative and
  significant
• Coefficient of MV dummy is significantly larger
  for 1980s than for 1990s
• The coefficients of MVNMH, MVNCC, MVSCC are
  neg. and became larger from 1980s to 1990s
• The coefficients of MVNES and MVMRD remained
  largely in 1980s and 1990s
• Coefficients of year dummies are positive and
  significant in 1980s but not so in 1990s compare
  with the base year 1980
• -

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Implication of Regression Results

• Green Revolution in Vietnam has been sustained by
  continuous improvement of MVs particularly for
  relatively favorable rice areas such as in RRD
  and MRD

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Table 5. Basic Characteristics of Sample
Villages and Sample Size of Households
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Table 6. Socio-Economic Characteristics of Sample
Households
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Table 7. MV Adoption, Rice Yields, and Fertilizer
Application Across Production Environments by
Cropping Season a
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Estimation of MV Adoption, Fertilizer Application
and Yield Function

• MV Adoption function- Tobit model (Table 8)
• - Dependent Var Ratio of areas planted to MVs to
  total rice planted area
• - Exp.Variables IRG dummy, Regional dummies,
• Total farm size, Age, Schooling,Family
  worker, gender of HH heads, dry season dummy .

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Results of Adoption Function of MVs
IRG dummy highly significant particularly for
the South VN where irrigation is needed and
drainage in dry season and drainage is needed
during flooding time in MRD Three regional
dummies highly significant in North, lower in
Outer MRD MV adoption is high in areas with
irrigation and favorable environment. Paddy area,
number of worker, female head dummy are
sig. Environmental factors largely determine the
adoption of MVs in 1990s
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Fertilizer application

• Fertilizer application function whole reigion,
  North and South
• - IRG dummy and two northern region dummy are
  positive
• - Outer Mekong Delta dummy neg. significant
  due to salinity and fooding
• - NMH, RRD dummies were highly sig. Partly due
  to restoration of soil fertility brought about by
  flooding in MRD
• - Age of HH heads sig positive Farmers
  experiences is a crucial role in Fer. application
• - Schooling is non sig. Farmer experiences in
  rice production plays a crucial role than
  schooling

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Determinant of rice yield

• Yield function for whole region, North and South
  (Table 10)
• - IRG dummy positive significant
• -The three regional dummies have neg.
  significant coefficients (equation 1) due to the
  higher yield in MRD with availability of
  irrigation water and effective water control
• - Total paddy areas is insignificant in
  equation 1, neg. significant in North, weakly
  sig. positive in South Farm size should not
  effect resource allocation and yields.
• - Age neg. effect
• -

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Concluding Remarks

• Green Revolution began in favorable areas and
  spread to less favorable areas over time
• In VN, Green Revolution started in the late 1970s
  (whole the country) after the war when the MV2
  with resistant to pest and diseases were already
  available
• Green Revolution has been sustained up to the
  end of 1990s
• National agriculture research system played a
  criticaly important role in developing location
  -specific appropriate technologies

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Remaining issues

• There is needed to analyze the origin and timing
  of various MVs application
• To assess the effects of MV cum irrigation
  technologies on total factor productivity

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Thank you