PLAN

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PLAN

• I. IO International Security League of
  Nations, United Nations
• II. Negotiation Art Science

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I. IO International Diplomacy

• Last week IO regional integration (IPE)
• International security IO multilateral
  diplomacy
• First permanent IO League of Nations

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The League of Nations

• Background factors 1919 Treaty of Versailles
• Move from Balance of Power to system of
  Collective Security
• League established in 1919 at Paris Peace
  Conference
• US liberal institutionalism vs. isolationism

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Wilsons Fourteen Points

• Point I transparency open covenant
• Point XIV rule-oriented instead of
  power-oriented system
• XIV A general association of nations must be
  formed under specific covenants for the purpose
  of affording mutual guaranteed of political
  independence and territorial integrity to great
  and small states alike

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Doctrine of Collective Security

• Art. 10 protection of small states
• Art. 16 peace can be maintained if all
  countries could agree to come to the defense of
  an invading state war against one would be
  considered war against all
• Art. 16 could imply economic sanctions
  military action

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Success Failure of the League

• Institutionalized cooperation meetings through
  general assemblies
• Art. 11 Council operated on unanimity rule
  veto by any council member threatening peace
• Veto imposed twice (1931 1935)
• Disintegration of the League 1938, 1939

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The United Nations

• Founded by 51 states (San Francisco, 1945)
• Art. 1.1 of UN Charter, main objective
• To maintain international peace and security,
  and to that end to take effective collective
  measures for the prevention and removal of
  threats to the peace, and for the suppression of
  acts of aggression or other breaches of the
  peace, and to bring about by peaceful means, and
  in conformity with the principles of justice and
  international law, adjustment or settlement of
  international disputes or situations which might
  lead to a breach of the peace

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The UN Organs

• 6 main organs Security Council (SC), General
  Assembly (GA), ECOSOC, Trusteeship Council,
  Secretariat International Court of Justice
  (ICJ)
• SC 5 permanent members (US, Russia, GB, France,
  China) 10 revolving members elected by GA (only
  5 GP have veto power)
• GA from 51 (1945) to 191 states (2004)

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Membership Growth

• Resolution 637A (VII) the GA recommends that
  the Members of the United Nations shall uphold
  the principle of self-determination of all
  peoples and nations
• GAs Declaration on the Granting of Independence
  to Colonial Countries and Peoples (1960)
• 1990s Collapse of Soviet Union former
  Yugoslavia independence of Baltic States

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Procedures

• SC procedural decisions (9/15) substantive
  issues (9 absence of veto from 5)
• GA one vote per member
• simple majority rule
• except peace security, new membership
  budget super-majority rule

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Major Functions

• SC int. peace security, military action
  against aggressor (Chap VII Collective
  Security), determine existence of threat,
  recommend admission of new member, recommend to
  GA appointment of SG and judges of the ICJ etc
• GA Discussion forum
• Major difference SC resolutions are binding, GA
  consultative

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Rate of Success?

• Success
• Functional activities (WHO, UNICEF..)
• Forum of international diplomacy
• International legitimacy on wide range of issues
• New functions peacekeeping, state-building,
  election monitoring
• Weaknesses
• Dependence on US (budget problem)
• UN crisis US unilateralism in Iraq vs.
  multilateralism
• Need for a new vision of Collective Security
  legitimacy of the use of force (Art. 51 of UN
  Charter)?

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Reforming the UN

• Background new threats (terrorism, armed
  conflict, nuclear proliferation) US post 9/11
  enlargement of concept of self defense
  (preemption)
• 2 Dec. 2004 Publication of report on reforms by
  panel of 16 experts commissioned by SG
• Ratification by GA in September 2005
• UN 2005 World Summit

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Report by Group of Experts

• No change to UN Charter on the use of force (2
  exceptions self defense authorization by SC)
• If imminent threat, states have right to use
• armed force but preventive war is forbidden
• Enlargement of SC from 15 to 24 (regional)
• pre and post-conflict international protection
  mechanism
• Maintain veto but GP have a responsibility to
  protect

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II. The Art of Negotiation

• Across times and cultures
• Negotiation traditionally associated with
  international diplomacy interaction between
  states or empires
• Negotiation strategies for warriors diplomats
• Sun Tse (4th BC), Ibn Khaldun (14th AD), Musashi
  (17th AD), De Callières (18th AD) .

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Negotiation Per Se

• Social and political interaction
• Process by which two parties interact to reach an
  agreement acceptable position with regard to
  their differences (Faure, 1991)
• A potentially opportunistic interaction (Lax
  Sebenius, 1986)
• An instrument which allows actors to manage their
  interdependence

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Negotiation Functions

• Tool for conflict resolution
• Social, political conflict
• Regional conflicts (Zartman, 1991)
• Common basis for exchange
• Strategy in situation of conflict of interests

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A Science of Negotiation

• Four schools of thought
• Psychological, social-psychological,
  sociological and political theories
• Economic game theory
• Process-oriented theories
• Pragmatic research
• Merger in PIN Project (Processes of International
  Negotiations)

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Multi-Disciplinary Perspectives

• Historic description, structural analysis of
  power (asymmetries tactics)
• Focus on bargaining process (demands, offers,
  concessions, counter-offers..)
• Game theory (Nash equilibrium, optimal solutions,
  utilities strategic choices)
• Identification of types of negotiation
  personalities efficient behaviors
• Cognitive analysis (decision-making mechanisms,
  perceptions, mental reasoning)

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Elements of Negotiation

• Actors (states, organizations, groups)
• Structure (constraints on action)
• Strategy (general orientation)
• Process (interaction between actors)
• Results (agreement reached or not)

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Power, An Influencing Variable

• Structural (set agenda, rules of the game)
• Bargaining (influence, strategies, power as
  perceived relation)

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Power Negotiation

• Asymmetries (capabilities, costs of no-agreement)
  
• Interesting research results link between
  asymmetry negotiation results (Zartman Rubin,
  eds., 2000)
• Power strategies (issue-linkage, party
  arithmetic, impact on alternatives)
• Time as a source of power (Rubinstein, 1982
  1985)

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Mixed Negotiation Processes

• Permanent tension between distributive
  (conflictual) and integrative (cooperative)
  components of the negotiation (Lax Sebenius,
  1986 Mastenbroek, 1989)

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A Two-Level Game

• One-level approach of international negotiation
  diplomacy unitary-actor assumption
• Entanglements between two levels reciprocal
  influence between domestic and international
  politics
• Importance of intra-organizational bargaining
  (Walton McKersie, 1965) - How when? (Putnam,
  1988)

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Regional Integration

• Spillover incremental process (from economic to
  political integration - Haas, 1958)
• Spillover entanglement between domestic
  international politics
• Impact of parties and interest groups on process
  of European integration

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Win-Sets

• Putnam involuntary defection by agent if failed
  ratification
• Identifying win-sets among their constituencies
  is important when leaders seek to achieve an
  agreement that will be attractive domestically
• Level II win-set the set of possible Level I
  agreements that would win, i.e. gain the
  necessary majority among constituents

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Win-Sets Predictions

• Domestic win-sets help understand international
  agreements
• Agreement is possible if the respective win-sets
  of all parties to the negotiation overlap
• Larger win-sets favor Level I agreements
• Size is determined by preferences, coalitions,
  institutions (Level II) and negotiators
  strategies (issue-linkage)

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An example of Two-Level Game

• Last week European Constitution treaty
• Negotiation Phase (Level I) bargaining between
  negotiators leading to an agreement (signed on 29
  October 2004)
• Ratification Phase (Level II) discussions within
  each group of constituents on the issue of the
  ratification of the agreements (2005-2006)