ENERGY SECURITY IN GERMANY AND POLAND

1
ENERGY SECURITY INGERMANY AND POLAND

• By
• Glenn D. Roettger
• 11 September, 2007

2
RESEARCH QUESTION
Can Germany and Poland maintain Energy Security
using Russia as their primary supplier?
3
Overview
INTRODUCTION ENERGY SECURITY SITUATION
BACKGROUND RESOURCE ANALYSIS BY
COUNTRY OIL NATURAL GAS COAL NUCL
EAR ENERGY STRATEGY BY COUNTRY STRENGHTS
WEAKNESSES OPPORTUNITIES C
ONCLUSIONS
4
The Energy Future
5
Situation and Background
WHAT IS ENERGY SECURITY? Energy Security is the
ability to have at disposal energy in
quantity and quality needed to cover the
nations economic and social needs, Including
its international commitments. WHY DOES GERMANY
CARE? Germany currently imports 70 of all its
energy from Russia, and is the largest consumer
of Russian energy in Europe. WHY DOES POLAND
CARE? Poland only imports 30 of all their
energy from Russia, but they are reflective of
what could be the future for the rest of the
former CIS nations.
6
Situation and Background (Cont)
WHY DOES RUSSIA CARE? Russia makes up 12 of the
global production of oil while at the same time
they have the worlds largest proven gas
reserves at 32. MUTUAL DEPENDENCE? Yes --
Unfortunately WHAT WILL THE IMPACT BE FOR
EUROPE? EU Centricevery comes together now
while planning on reducing dependence on Russia
later Go it AloneFavored by Russia, EU cannot
establish a common policy, Russia gets to be the
bully US BackedLimit Russian influence and
encourages Moscow to open up for
foreign investment
7
REMEMBER RUSSIA?
8
REMEMBER RUSSIA?
9
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
10
GERMAN OIL
11
GERMAN NATURAL GAS
12
GERMAN COAL
13
GERMAN NUCLEAR

• 1/3 of all electricity comes from nuclear energy
• 17 reactorsusing 20.6 of installed capacity
• supplied 158.7 TWh in 2006

• Coalition government formed after the 1998
  federal elections
• voted to phase out nuclear energy by 2020.
• Legislation limits operational life of nuclear
  power plants
• to an average of 32 years. US plants limited to
  60 years

14
GERMAN ENERGY POLICY
Reduce greenhouse emissions by up to 40 by
2020 Requires energy producers to increase
efficiency by 3 per year and improve
conservation No nuclear policy changesStill on
2020 phase out pace Replaced nuclear with
renewable sources Using combined heat and power
plants Strong push for unbundling, Splits
generating and distribution arms of the energy
industry Very strong criticism in that it is
not an energy policy only an anti-energy policy
15
Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities
STRENGTHS North Sea Pipeline can bring even
more supplies Leading the way on energy
efficiency and environmental awareness WEAKNES
S Growing trend of energy nationalism North
Sea Pipeline could actually be used as a
strategic tool to manipulate others Large
corporations and policies go against EU Energy
Commission OPPORTUNITIES If the Europeans
could develop a common energy policy then they
could counterbalance the Russians.
16
Combined Heat Power (FYI)
Gas Turbine or Engine With Heat Recovery Unit
Steam Boiler With Steam Turbine
17
POLAND OIL
18
POLAND NATURAL GAS
19
POLAND COAL
20
POLAND NUCLEAR
The introduction of nuclear power program is
foreseen after 2020 Justified by the need to
diversify primary energy sources and the need to
restrict the greenhouse gases and sulfur dioxide
emissions to the atmosphere. Commissioning of
the first nuclear power plant before 2020 is
deemed to be impossible. Would require 10 years
to build, plus 5 years for public campaign
preceding any investment
21
POLAND ENERGY POLICY
Guidelines for Poland's Energy Policy until the
year 2020 Adopted by the Council of Ministers,
February 2000. Policy consists of Improvement
of fuel consumption efficiency i.e. cogeneration
promotion Rational heat and electricity
consumption Promotion of non-conventional and
renewable energy sources. Promotion of energy
efficiency concentrates on Direct regulations
(standards) Market stimulation (economic
fiscal) Supporting instruments (information,
education, Research Development
22
Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities
STRENGTHS Reducing dependence on Russian energy
supplies Developing relations with other
northern EU nations for supplies Energy Industry
falls in line with EU plan for decoupling
WEAKNESS Growing trend of energy
nationalism Very expensive since infrastructure
has to be built (current pipelines are
Russian) Energy Industry is immature, not as
competitive in the market and could be taken
over OPPORTUNITIES If the Europeans could
develop a common energy policy then they could
counterbalance the Russians.
23
Conclusion
Common Energy Policy is the key Multilateral is
better than Unilateral agreements
w/Russia North European Pipeline is not a
windfall for Germany much less Europe Poland
might be the example for the rest of Europe if
they can pull it off Could the current system
be used to distribute energy like the US power
grid?
24
THE GRID ?
25
THE GOAL?
26
QUESTIONS?