Science and Technology for Sustainable Well-being*

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Science and Technology for Sustainable Well-being

• An open discussion among 5 PMPs Energy,
  Climate, Limits to Development, Water, and
  Pollution
• Erice, August 19, 2008

John P. Holdren, Science Mag. 319, p 424-434,
Jan. 25, 2008
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Workshop was organized by the 5 PMP Chairs

• Energy Bill Fulkerson for Art Rosenfeld
• Climate Bill Sprigg
• Limits to Development Geraldo Serra
• Water Bob Clark
• Pollution Lorne Everett Frank Parker

Moderator Bill Fulkerson Rapporteur Jef Ongena
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Science and Technology for Sustainable Well-being
John P. Holdren, Science Mag. 319, p 424-434,
Jan. 25, 2008
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To Holdren sustainable well-being entails

• pursuing sustainable development to achieve
  well-being where it is now most conspicuously
  absent. as well as converting to a sustainable
  basis the maintenance and expansion of well-being
  where it already exists but is being provided by
  unsustainable means.

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Holdren identified 5 specific challenges

• Meeting the basic needs of the poor.
• Competition for land, water and biota.
• Anthropogenic changes in the oceans.
• The energy-economy-environment dilemma (the E3
  dilemma).
• Moving toward elimination of nuclear weapons.

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India just issued its National Action Plan on
Climate Change

• Maintaining a high growth rate is essential for
  increasing the living standards of the vast
  majority of our people and reducing their
  vulnerability to the impacts of climate change.
  (p,2)
• But India is determined that its per capita
  greenhouse gas emissions will at no point exceed
  that of developed countries even as we pursue our
  development objectives. (p.2)
• In other words for India poverty trumps climate.

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What might result?

• Joint plans for 2009 and beyond?
• Specific proposals for Professor Zichichi?

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Energy is at the heart of solving Holdrens E3
Dilemma

• It is a driver of climate change.
• It is a driver for development
• Making development sustainable means making
  energy services sustainable
• Developed and developing countries are
  interlocked by climate change.
• But the developing world will drive climate
  change from now on.

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Energy and sustainable well-being goals can
conflict in a carbon constrained society

• To avoid climate change planetary emergencies the
  worlds energy systems (and the collective
  management of the biosphere) must be reinvented
  and rebuilt.
• The problem will be confounded by conventional
  oil production peaking.
• The transition will be expensive.
• But the developing world wants to grow rapidly to
  enhance economic well-being.
• This is the E3 dilemma.

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Science and technology can reduce the cost
making the transition more palatable. .
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Edmonds J.A., and S.J. Smith (2006) "The
Technology of Two Degrees" In Avoiding Dangerous
Climate Change, Schellnhuber, H J., Cramer, W.,
Nakicenovic, N., Wigley, T. and Yohe, G. (Eds)
(Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press), pp.
385-392.
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Some needed technological improvements

• Cleaner, more fuel-efficient motor vehicles
  hybrids (diesels, plug-in hybrids)
• More energy-efficient commercial residential
  buildings and industrial processes
• Improved coal technologies to make electricity
  hydrogen with CO2 capture storage
• Advanced nuclear reactors with increased safety
  and proliferation-resistant fuel cycles
• Improved batteries fuel cells
• Biofuels that dont compete with food forests
• Cheaper photovoltaic cells
• Source John Holdren Talk to Council on
  Competitiveness, June, 08

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Oh Lord, give us a silver bullet. Ans Not yet,
you havent suffered enough. For one thing you
are seriously under-funding energy technology
RD globally, both by the public and by the
private sectors.
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There may be one silver bullet Efficiency
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Governor Schwarzeneggers and Californias Efforts

• June 2005 Executive Order on Climate Change
• Reduce greenhouse gases
• to 2000 levels by 2010
• to 1990 levels by 2020 (30 below BAU!!)
• to 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050
• AB 32 the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006
• Confirms the Governors Executive Order
• Adopt regulations to achieve maximum feasible and
  cost-effective GHG reductions
• Adopt market mechanisms, such as cap and trade
• Establish mandatory reporting of GHG emissions by
  major industries
• Adopt a statewide GHG emissions limit for 2020
  matching 1990 emissions
• www.ClimateChange.ca.gov

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Supply curve for GHG abatement in 2030
McKinsey, 2007
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An International Partnership on Energy Efficiency
has just been initiated by the G8 Ministers.
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The developed world should take on the task to
electrify one billion people in twenty years with
low emitting supply and very efficient end use
technologies1.

• Electrification can advance well-being as few
  other single activities can.
• Developed world would pay the difference in cost
  between sustainable (low emission) efficient
  systems and least first-cost systems ( 100B
  over 20 y).
• Developing countries would pay 3/4 of total cost.
• Efficient end-use technologies can cut family
  electricity bills in half.

1Fulkerson, William et al., Sustainable and
Efficient Electricity for a Billion People,
Energy for Sus. Dev., IX,2, p26, 2005
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Strawman proposal for 09

• Organize around the developing world.
• Create a special multi-PMP task force.
• Pick a country e.g. China, India or an African
  nation.
• For each expose the E3 dilemma as seen through
  their eyes.
• Develop ST recommendations.

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E3 Dilemma Issues in China, India, Africa, etc.
match the 5 PMPs

• Energy future planning for climate and oil
  security.
• Water resources planning.
• Adaptative capacity building, e.g. for famine
  avoidance and to manage globalization.
• Pollution control ecosystem protection.
• Managing the population bomb.
• Partnering for progress --the role of the
  developed world.

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Two other ideas might be vetted in 09.

• Work out the details of creating sustainable
  efficient electricity services for the developing
  world.
• Develop a comprehensive geoengineering RD plan.

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Questions?
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The five PMP chairs will initiate the discussion

• Energy Bill Fulkerson for Art Rosenfeld
• Climate Bill Sprigg
• Limits to Development Geraldo Serra
• Water Bob Clark
• Pollution Lorne Everett Frank Parker

Moderator Bill Fulkerson Rapporteur Jef Ongena