The impact of trade liberalisation and CAP reform

1
The impact of trade liberalisation and CAP reform
Adrian Cooper Oxford Economic Forecasting

• October 2005
• Tel [phone]
• Email acooper_at_oef.co.uk

2
Five key findings of the research

• The potential benefits are significant - around
  1,500 a year for household of four.
• EU could benefit most by reducing its trade
  barriers bilaterally. This could help it catch
  up with the US.
• Core continental economies could gain more than
  the UK from CAP reform.
• There are larger gains for developing countries.
• Poorest tenth in UK gain proportionately much
  more than top tenth.

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Europes under-performance
Eurozone productivity falling behind US EU
unemployment higher
4
EU trade barriers are higher than US
5
Core continental economies have as much to
gain as Britain
6
Bilateral trade reform brings biggest gains for
the EU and UK
7
Liberalising first could help EU catch up with US
8
Gains from CAP reform
9
Poor countries are hit hardest
10
and so benefit more
11
In the UK the poor benefit most
12
Five key findings of the research

• The potential benefits are significant - around
  1,500 a year for household of four.
• EU could benefit most by reducing its trade
  barriers bilaterally. This could help it catch
  up with the US.
• Core continental economies could gain more than
  the UK from CAP reform.
• There are larger gains for developing countries.
• Poorest tenth in UK gain proportionately much
  more than top tenth.