OHIO RIVER NAVIGATION INVESTMENT MODEL ORNIM Economic and Environmental Conference New Orleans July

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OHIO RIVER NAVIGATION INVESTMENT
MODELORNIMEconomic and Environmental
ConferenceNew OrleansJuly 16-18, 2002

• T. Randall (Randy) Curlee, PhD
• Oak Ridge National Laboratory

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Presentation Outline

• An Overview of ORNIM Capabilities
• Conceptual Foundations of ORNIM
• The ORNIM System Components
• ORNIM Status and Future Plans

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ORNIMs Role

• To identify optimal investment strategies
• New construction
• Major Rehab
• Major Maintenance

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Analysis Capabilities of ORNIM

• Reproduces existing analysis capabilities
• System-wide benefits
• Tradeoffs among projects over time
• Tradeoffs between construction, maintenance, and
  rehab
• Multi-year horizon
• Can be budget constrained
• Integrated model design

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Demonstration

• Scenario 1 Introduce a technology which will
  reduce maintenance closures from 15 days to 10
  days at a cost of 10M per lock. Which Ohio
  Mainstem projects should adopt the technology and
  when?
• Note the data used for the demonstrations are
  test data and are not validated by the USACE.

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10,000,000 per lock initial investment7 locks
over a 20 year period
2007
2007
2010
2017
2016
2026
2007
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At a lower cost per lock (e.g. 5,000,000 per
lock initial investment)10 locks over a 20 year
period
2007
2007
2006
2010
2007
2006
2017
2008
2016
2026
2007
2020
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Demonstration

• Scenario 2 Which of 6 possible 600 ?1200 foot
  extensions are justified at a cost of 175M and
  in which years?
• Cannelton
• Greenup
• Markland
• Meldahl
• Myers
• Newburgh
• Note the data used for the demonstrations are
  test data and are not validated by the USACE.

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Demonstration

• Scenario 2 Which of 6 possible 600 ?1200 foot
  extensions are justified at a cost of 175M and
  in which years?
• Cannelton online in 2027
• Greenup online in 2009
• Markland
• Meldahl
• Myers online in 2014
• Newburgh online in 2024
• Note the data used for the demonstrations are
  test data and are not validated by the USACE.

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Demonstration

• Scenario 2 Which of 6 possible 600 ?1200 foot
  extensions are justified at a cost of 150M (from
  175M) and in which years?
• Cannelton online in 2027 online in 2020
• Greenup online in 2009 online in 2009
• Markland online in 2015
• Meldahl
• Myers online in 2014 online in 2010
• Newburgh online in 2024 online in 2023
• Note the data used for the demonstrations are
  test data and are not validated by the USACE.

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ORNIM Provides a Variety of Analysis Tools
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Presentation Outline

• Introduce ORNIM by demonstration
• Conceptual Foundations of ORNIM
• The ORNIM System Components
• ORNIM Status and Future Plans

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The Conceptual Foundations of ORNIM
Total Commodity Demand Forecasts
Current System-wide Cost of Delay
Benefits of River Traffic (Land Rate - River Rate)

New Capacity, System-wide Cost of Delay
Total Benefits with Current River System
River Tons
'
Q
Q
Total Benefits of New Capacity Resulting from
Reduced Delays of Existing River Traffic
Total Benefits of New Capacity Resulting from
Additional Tons of River Traffic
Total Benefits of New Capacity
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Presentation Outline

• Introduce ORNIM by demonstration
• Conceptual Foundations of ORNIM
• The ORNIM System Components
• ORNIM Status and Future Plans

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The ORNIM System
Reliability Estimates
Repair Plans and Costs
Random Closure Probabilities
Lock Risk Module
Cargo Forecasts
Optimal Investment Module
Waterway Supply and Demand Module

Towboat/Barge Operations
Budget
Optimal Investment in Projects and Maintenance
Lock Operations
River Network
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The ORNIM System
Reliability Estimates
Repair Plans and Costs
Random Closure Probabilities
Lock Risk Module
Cargo Forecasts
Optimal Investment Module
Waterway Supply and Demand Module

Towboat/Barge Operations
Budget
Optimal Investment in Projects and Maintenance
Lock Operations
River Network
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The ORNIM System
Reliability Estimates
Repair Plans and Costs
Random Closure Probabilities
Lock Risk Module
Cargo Forecasts
Optimal Investment Module
Waterway Supply and Demand Module

Towboat/Barge Operations
Budget
Optimal Investment in Projects and Maintenance
Lock Operations
River Network
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The ORNIM System
Reliability Estimates
Repair Plans and Costs
Random Closure Probabilities
Lock Risk Module
Cargo Forecasts
Optimal Investment Module
Waterway Supply and Demand Module

Towboat/Barge Operations
Budget
Optimal Investment in Projects and Maintenance
Lock Operations
River Network
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The ORNIM System
Reliability Estimates
Repair Plans and Costs
Random Closure Probabilities
Lock Risk Module
Cargo Forecasts
Optimal Investment Module
Waterway Supply and Demand Module

Towboat/Barge Operations
Budget
Optimal Investment in Projects and Maintenance
Lock Operations
River Network
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The ORNIM System
Reliability Estimates
Repair Plans and Costs
Random Closure Probabilities
Lock Risk Module
Cargo Forecasts
Optimal Investment Module
Waterway Supply and Demand Module

Towboat/Barge Operations
Budget
Optimal Investment in Projects and Maintenance
Lock Operations
River Network
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The ORNIM System (Analysis Capabilities)
Maintenance
Reliability Estimates
Repair Plans and Costs
Construction
Random Closure Probabilities
Lock Risk Module
Rehabilitation
Cargo Forecasts
Optimal Investment Module
Waterway Supply and Demand Module

Towboat/Barge Operations
Budget
Optimal Investment in Projects and Maintenance
River Network
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The ORNIM System (Analysis Capabilities)
Maintenance
Reliability Estimates
Repair Plans and Costs
Construction
Random Closure Probabilities
Lock Risk Module
Rehabilitation
Cargo Forecasts
Optimal Investment Module
Waterway Supply and Demand Module

Towboat/Barge Operations
Budget
Optimal Investment in Projects and Maintenance
River Network
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The ORNIM System (Analysis Capabilities)
Maintenance
Reliability Estimates
Repair Plans and Costs
Construction
Random Closure Probabilities
Lock Risk Module
Rehabilitation
Cargo Forecasts
Optimal Investment Module
Waterway Supply and Demand Module

Towboat/Barge Operations
Budget
Optimal Investment in Projects and Maintenance
River Network
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The ORNIM System (Analysis Capabilities)
Maintenance
Reliability Estimates
Repair Plans and Costs
Construction
Random Closure Probabilities
Lock Risk Module
Rehabilitation
Cargo Forecasts
Optimal Investment Module
Waterway Supply and Demand Module

Towboat/Barge Operations
Budget
Optimal Investment in Projects and Maintenance
River Network
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The ORNIM System (Additional Capabilities)
Fuel Tax Change
Reliability Estimates
Repair Plans and Costs
Induced Demand
Random Closure Probabilities
Lock Risk Module
Externalities
Cargo Forecasts
Optimal Investment Module
Waterway Supply and Demand Module

Towboat/Barge Operations
Budget
Optimal Investment in Projects and Maintenance
River Network
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The ORNIM System (Additional Capabilities)
Fuel Tax Change
Reliability Estimates
Repair Plans and Costs
Induced Demand
Random Closure Probabilities
Lock Risk Module
Externalities
Cargo Forecasts
Optimal Investment Module
Waterway Supply and Demand Module

Towboat/Barge Operations
Budget
Optimal Investment in Projects and Maintenance
River Network
28
The ORNIM System (Additional Capabilities)
Fuel Tax Change
Reliability Estimates
Repair Plans and Costs
Induced Demand
Random Closure Probabilities
Lock Risk Module
Externalities
Cargo Forecasts
Optimal Investment Module
Waterway Supply and Demand Module

Towboat/Barge Operations
Budget
Optimal Investment in Projects and Maintenance
External Costs
River Network
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ORNIM Status and Future Plans

• ORNIM Version 2.0 completed
• ORNIM Version 3.0 under construction
• Alternatives that modify the river system
• For example, 2 for 3 option and refleeting points
• Preparations for Independent Technical Review
  (ITR) underway e.g., expanded documentation,
  validation results documented
• ORNIM integration with the Navigation Predictive
  Analysis (NAVPAT) Model