The Effects of Population Growth on the Achievement of the MDG on Child Mortality in Urban Sub-Saharan Africa

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The Effects of Population Growth on the
Achievement of the MDG on Child Mortality in
Urban Sub-Saharan Africa

• Memorandum Submitted to the UK APPG-PDRH
• By APHRC, Nairobi, Kenya
• Dr Jean-Christophe Fotso, Dr Alex Ezeh
• Dr Nyovani Madise, and Mr James Ciera
• London, UK, June 5, 2006

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Is SSA on Target to Meeting the MDG?
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Current and projected trends in under-five
mortality in SSA Source UNICEF (data online)
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Why Should we Focus on Urban Areas?

• Urban explosion amidst declining economies
• 15 in 1950 32 in 1990 54 in 2030
• Urban population growth of 4.7 in 1980-2000
• Decline in per capita GDP by 0.8
• Increasing proportion of urban dwellers living
  below the poverty line in slums and shantytowns
• Unsafe drinking water and poor environmental
  sanitation
• Limited access to health facilities
• Increased susceptibility of slum children to
  various health problems

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The Evidence
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Implications

• Failing to target the urban poor
• Pulling down of national average of health
  indicators
• Move countries away from achieving the MDG on
  child mortality
• Newly assembled evidence indicates
• Gradual shift in the locus of poverty from rural
  to urban areas
• Higher levels of morbidity and mortality among
  urban poor children than among their rural
  counterparts (Nairobi, Kenya)

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Case Study in Nairobi, Kenya
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Poor-rich fertility gaps
Source Kenya DHS 2003
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Conclusion

• SSA is not on target to meet the MDG on child
  mortality
• Arouse attention and commitment on urban
  population growth in SSA and the associated
  growing urban poverty
• Commitment of APHRC to
• Improving the well-being of populations through
  policy-relevant research on population health
• Key area of work Clarifying the changing
  linkages between urbanization, poverty and health
  in SSA

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• Thank you