Supply side famines: The case of Malawi 200102

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Supply side famines The case of Malawi 2001-02

• Jane Harrigan
• SOAS
• University of London

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• The supply side theory of famines results from
  the Western conception of famine as
• Food shortages
• Severe hunger
• Excess mortality

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• Supply side famines food shortage caused by
• Climate shocks drought and floods
• Population pressure
• Demand side famines operation of markets
• Demand failure (entitlements)
• Distribution failure (markets)

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Examples of supply side famines

• Nigeria 1927, 1942/43 (drought)
• Ethiopia 1980s (drought)
• Southern Africa 1991(drought)
• Malawi 2001/02 (floods)

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Drought and floods lead to food shortages

• BUT
• Doesnt explain why food doesnt enter from
  elsewhere.
• Doesnt explain why only some groups are
  affected.
• Hence, climate causes crop failure but
  vulnerability and poor distribution make a
  famine.

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Population

• Malthusian view famine restores the balance
  between food demand and supply.
• BUT
• Only a fraction of the population dies during
  famine
• Technical advances in agriculture
• Boserup effect of population concentration

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Are supply side shock more likely?

• Changing climate is causing soil degradation
• Over population and over grazing is putting
  pressure on the environment. Africas population
  will double in 20-25 years at current rates of
  growth.
• Communities are loosing natural resources and
  becoming more vulnerable.

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Africa produces 30 less food per person than in
1960s

• Higher population densities in traditional
  agricultural areas.
• Fragmentation of farmsteads
• Poor land management
• Inappropriate agricultural and economic policies.

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By 2050

• Africa will have to produce 300 more food to
  feed 2 billion.
• Latin America will have to produce 80 more food
  to feed 810 million.
• Asia will have to produce 70 more food to feed
  5.4 billion
• America will have to produce 30 more food to
  feed 384 million.

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• Supply side theories of famine focus on food
  supply and food security at the national
  aggregate level.
• Demand side theories of famine focus on food
  accessibility and affordability at the household
  and individual level of food security.

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The three As

• Availability of food on the supply side
• Accessibility of food on the demand side
• Affordability of food on the demand side

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4. F
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The Malawi famine of 2001/02

• Maize production fell by 34.
• In 2000 maize production was 2.5 million MT and
  there was a surplus.
• In 2001 maize production was 1.7 Million MT and
  there was a deficit of 300,000 MT.

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Import problems

• The government was slow to order food imports as
  roots and tubers production was overestimated.
• When imports were ordered they arrived much more
  slowly than anticipated

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Logistical problems

• Floods had washed away bridges and culverts
• Trucks were diverted to Zambia and Zimbabwe
• Malawis trucking system was a political monopoly
• Problems with the ports at Beira and Nacala

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Poor relations with donors

• The strategic grain reserve scandal
• IMF programme off track
• Corruption issues with Muluzi government.

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Lessons from the supply side analysis

• Effects of a small production shock can be
  amplified by other factors
• Relying on food imports is risk for small
  landlocked countries
• Commercial imports are problematic during
  transition from state domination to liberalised
  markets
• Strategic grain reserve needs to be adequately
  capitalised and run on clear transparent lines
• Democracy and free press does not always prevent
  famine
• Domestic food production needs to be supported by
  clear long term well resources policies

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Demand side vulnerabilities

• 64 of Malawians live in poor households and
  experience transitory food insecurity.
• 36 (over 4 million) are ultra poor and are
  chronically food insecure.
• 80 of households are net food consumers

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TABLE 1 POVERTY LINES FOR MALAWI (at April 1998
prices)
Source ODI (2004), Table 6. Note MK Malawi
Kwacha
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• Vulnerability can be seen as a function of
  exposure to hazard and the ability to cope with
  hazard (Webb and Harinarayan 1999).
• Over the last decade in Malawi hazards have
  increased and ability to cope with hazard has
  declined.