SVG

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SVG
Characteristics of the Future Security
Environment and Force Implications
Prepared for Seabasing Symposium
Presented by Col Tom Connally, USMC
29 September 09
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Agenda

• SVG Overview
• Future Security Environment
• Trends
• Patterns
• Future Conflict
• Future Force Implications

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Mission and Purpose of the SVG

• Mission
• Analyze future security environments identify
  future operational threats, challenges,
  opportunities, and risks and identify associated
  future force implications in order to inform
  Senior Marine Corps leadership and assist CMC to
  posture the Marine Corps for future success.
• Tasks
• Provide strategic estimates and assessments of
  future security environments out to 2025 with a
  focus on a rolling time horizon at the end of the
  Defense Planning Projection (DPP)
• Be the service facilitator and catalyst for
  strategic thinking on select issues.
• Assist CMC and Senior leadership with strategy
  development, implementation, and associated
  strategic communications.

Start a Strategic Dialogue and Create an
Institutional Updraft
10/30/2009
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Trends - The future establishes the requirement

• Demographic Dichotomy
• Urban Density and Sprawl
• Growing resource scarcity and competition
  (energy, water, food)
• Uneven prosperity
• Economic and global power shifts toward Asia
  rising powers (China and India) and changing
  alliances decline of traditional Europe
• Struggle for sovereign legitimacy over identity
• Character and conduct of warfare continues to
  blur - asymmetrically

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Trends.

• Demographic Dichotomy
• Graying of developed world
• Youth bulges (15-29) in developing world

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10/30/2009
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Trends.

• Urban Density and Sprawl
• Over half of global population is living in urban
  areas
• 1 in 6 in urban slums
• Concentrated in the littoral with over 60 within
  100NM of ocean

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Trends

• Growing Resource Scarcity and Competition
• Humanitarian crisis due to water/food scarcity
• Intervention to secure uninterrupted resource
  supply

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10/30/2009
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Trends

• Uneven Prosperity
• Tech diffusion
• Increased Globalization and Interdependence
• Global society vs. non-connected people

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Trends

• Economic and global power shifts toward Asia
• Economic/political patterns
• Increased diplomatic clout

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Trends

• Struggle for sovereign legitimacy over identity
• Concept of sovereign nation-state challenged
• Non-State actors
• Cultural legitimacy over State

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Urbanization of the Littorals
Global electronic activity plotted over a 30 day
period circa 1999
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Factors in Instability Conflict
Arc of Instability
Top Ten Birth Rate Nation
2009-2014
2014-2025
Ungoverned Region
Water Stress
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Potential Areas of Instability Conflict
2009-2025
Arc of Instability
Top Ten Birth Rate Nation
2009-2014
2014-2025
Ungoverned Region
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Water Stress
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Where We Have GoneInstability Conflict
1984-2009
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Employment of amphibious forces
2009-2014
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Trends.

• Character and conduct of warfare continues to
  blur
• Growth of asymmetries
• Police vs. Military Roles
• Emergence of..

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10/30/2009
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Emerging Operational Threats Challenges
Future Security Environment
Increasing complexity in the Nature of Warfare
Hybrid Threats
Complex Environments
10/30/2009
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Hybrid Threat
Hybrid threats incorporate a full range of
different modes of warfare including conventional
capabilities, irregular tactics and formations,
terrorist acts including indiscriminate violence
and coercion, and criminal disorder. F.G.
Hoffman CETO 2008
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Hezbollah Prototype Hybrid

• State-like capabilities
• PGMs
• Long Range Missiles
• Anti-ship Cruise Missiles
• Anti-armor systems
• UAVs
• SIGINT
• Selected tactics
• Highly trained in traditional and irregular
  modes
• Extensive preparations
• Exploitation of political effects

Hezbollahs combat cells were a hybrid of
guerrillas and regular troops-- a form of
opponent that U.S. forces are apt to encounter
with increasing frequency. Ralph Peters
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Complex Environment
Complex Terrain
Information War
War Amongst The People
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Paradigm Shift in Conflict Spectrum
S
O
T
2025
Increasingly Lethal and Complex
Most Dangerous/ Less Likely
Least Dangerous/ Not always a Lesser Included
Capability
S
O
Most Likely
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Emerging Character of Conflictmerging and
blurring forms of warfare
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Future Conflict
Hybrid Conflicts Simultaneous, Fused, and
Multi-modal.
Conflicts are increasingly characterized by a
hybrid blend of traditional and irregular
tactics, decentralized planning and execution,
and non-state actors, using both simple and
sophisticated technologies in innovative ways.

A Cooperative Strategy for Maritime
Security 2007
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DoD Viewpoint

• it is common to define and divide the
  so-called "high end" from the "low end," In
  reality, the categories of warfare are blurring
  and do not fit into neat, tidy boxes.
• We can expect to see more tools and tactics of
  destruction - from the sophisticated to the
  simple - being employed simultaneously in hybrid
  and more complex forms of warfare.
• these hybrid scenarios combine the "lethality
  of state conflict with the fanatical and
  protracted fervor of irregular warfare."

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Future Force Characteristics

• Simultaneous offensive, defensive and stability
  operations
• 360 degree posture on the battlefield
  non-linear TTPs
• More distributed operations with expanded C4 and
  operational reach considerations
• Adapt capability and capacity mix from largely
  conventional to hybrid posture
• Discriminate and proportional use of force will
  increasingly constrain operations
• Increased training education demand for agile
  multi-capable forces
• Persistent engagement activities to prevent or
  reduce conflict and build enduring relationships
  
• Respect and legitimacy vice hearts minds with
  populations
• Constant operations in the information human
  terrain local, US and international

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Major MAGTF Implications

• Decentralized MAGTF operations
• MAGTF effectiveness in complex terrain
• Complex and media-intensive operational
  environments
• Communications skills

We must train and educate Marines at all levels
on the challenges and opportunities presented by
the Information Age so that it becomes inherent
in everything we do. MCVS 2025
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2025
Vision Of 2025 USMC
Persistent Fwd Naval Engagement
Integrated Combined Arms across ROMO
Forces and Dets for Naval Service
Expeditionary Fast Austere Lethal
JFEO from the sea
Regionally Focused Persistent Engagement without
Permanent Presence 3.0 MEU / ESG 3-4 SP MAGTF
5 GFS
Complex Expeditionary ops in urban littorals
MEU
SP MAGTF
Leads Joint/MN ops enables interagency ops
Leads Joint / MNOps Enables Interagency Ops
Okinawa Hawaii Guam
GFS
GFS
GFS
LCS
LPD-17
SP MAGTF
LPD-17
SP MAGTF
MEU
SP MAGTF
GFS
CSG
GFS
MEU
LPD-17
LCS
Increasing Tailored Forward Presence
of Multicapable MAGTFs
GFS Global Fleet Station CSG Carrier Strike
Group
MEU Marine Expeditionary Unit ESG
Expeditionary Strike Group SP MAGTF Special
Purpose Marine Air Ground Task Force (MAGTF)
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Questions
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Questions? Visit the SVG at www.mccdc.usmc.milor
Google Strategic Vision Group
Click on Strategic Vision Group tab for all
source documents, briefs, information papers, etc
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Stress, Instability, Conflict 2009

• Ungoverned Spaces
• Guatemala-Chiapas Border
• Colombia-Venezuela Border
• West Africa
• East Africa
• Arabian Peninsula
• North Caucasus Region
• Afghan-Pakistan Border
• Sulawesi-Mindanao

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Top Oil Reserve and Production Nations Crisis
and Critical Infrastructure Protection
Arc of Instability
Coastal and off-shore production and distribution
facilities associated with the top ten
constitute Critical Littoral Infrastructure
Favorable Allied/Coalition Access/Basing Support
2009-2014
2014-2025
Off-shore Production facilities
Current Production
Identified Reserves
Undeveloped Fields
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Potential Instability Conflict 2009-2025
Economic Crisis
The near-term security concern of the United
States is the global Economic crisis and its
geopolitical implications. it already looms
as the most serious global economic and financial
crisis in decades. Annual Threat Assessment
of the Intelligence Community 12 Feb 2009
2009-2014
2014-2025
Economic Crisis
Could go either way