Small World, Aint It

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Small World, Aint It?
NIBS September 17, 2002

• Dr. Schuyler Foerster
• President, World Affairs Council of Pittsburgh

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Why a World Affairs Council?

• Non-partisan education to promote greater
  understanding of important international issues
• Global-minded citizens for a global power in a
  democratic society
• Competitive workforce in a global marketplace
• September 2001 - June 2002
• 18,000 people in over 200 programs
• 13,000 students and teachers

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Life Used to be Relatively Simple
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The Old Cold War Mentality
them

• The Soviets, being cunning and devious, hide
  their country behind the curve of the earth so we
  cant see.

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The Old Cold War Mentality
us
them

• The Soviets, being cunning and devious, hide
  their country behind the curve of the earth so we
  cant see.

• We, on the other hand, are right out in the open
  on the flat part.

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Now its More Complicatedand not just because
of 9.11
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A Time of Contradictions

• Incontestable power unprecedented vulnerability

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A Time of Contradictions

• Incontestable power unprecedented vulnerability
• No major war? but targets are civilian

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A Time of Contradictions

• Incontestable power unprecedented vulnerability
• No major war? but targets are civilian
• States integrate but more often disintegrate

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A Time of Contradictions

• Incontestable power unprecedented vulnerability
• No major war? but targets are civilian
• States integrate but more often disintegrate
• Rise of democracy destabilizes before
  stabilizes

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A Time of Contradictions

• Incontestable power unprecedented vulnerability
• No major war? but targets are civilian
• States integrate but more often disintegrate
• Rise of democracy destabilizes before
  stabilizes
• Information age global local digital divide

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A Time of Contradictions

• Incontestable power unprecedented vulnerability
• No major war? but targets are civilian
• States integrate but more often disintegrate
• Rise of democracy destabilizes before
  stabilizes
• Information age global local digital divide
• Assistance necessary but it wont always help

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A Time of Contradictions

• Incontestable power unprecedented vulnerability
• No major war? but targets are civilian
• States integrate but more often disintegrate
• Rise of democracy destabilizes before
  stabilizes
• Information age global local digital divide
• Assistance necessary but it wont always help
• Global marketplaces local horizons

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A Time of Contradictions

• Incontestable power unprecedented vulnerability
• No major war? but targets are civilian
• States integrate but more often disintegrate
• Rise of democracy destabilizes before
  stabilizes
• Information age global local digital divide
• Assistance necessary but it wont always help
• Global marketplaces local horizons
• Rogue states with disproportionate influence

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But Why Does it Matter to US?
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because globalization is a present and
unavoidable phenomenon
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Our Changing Face(s)

• Global population increasing 50 in a generation
• 6 billion 9 billion people by 2025
• 90 in developing countries
• In most, 50 of population under 25
• U.S. immigration tripled since 1970
• 9.6 million 28.4 million
  in 2000
• 58 of U.S. population growth in the 1990s

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U.S. Immigrant Population1900-2000
Numbers tripled since 1970 percentage doubled
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Population Growth ()1900-2000
Pittsburgh last among 280 MSAs in population
growth, 1990-2000
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Hey Theyre Not All Like Us!

• Out of 100 people ...
• 57 Asians ... 21 Europeans ...14 Western
  Hemisphere ... 8 Africans
• 52 female 48 male
• 70 non-white 30 white
• 70 non-Christian 30 Christian
• 89 heterosexual 11 homosexual
• 59 wealth owned by 6 of population (all US)
• 80 live in substandard housing
• 70 cannot read
• 50 suffer from malnutrition
• 1 near death, 1 near birth
• 1 has a college education
• 1 owns a computer

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Closing the Borders?

• What comes into the US each year?
• 475 million people
• 125 million vehicles
• 21 million import shipments
• 5 million 40-foot shipping containers
• 2.7 million undocumented immigrants
• Where?
• 3,700 terminals
• 301 ports of entry

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Trade is Global ...

• In worldwide trade ...
• 1995 -- 4 trillion open to global competition
• 2000 -- 21 trillion open to global competition
• 525 increase in five years!
• And the US is a bigger player ...
• 1950 -- US exports imports 5 GDP
• 2000 -- US exports imports 25 GDP
• With a much bigger GDP!
• US -- 25 of global GDP lt5 of population

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and Foreign Investment is Bigger than Trade

• Overseas production by American transnational
  corporations is over twice the value of US
  exports.
• Sales by foreign owned corporations in the US is
  nearly twice the value of US imports.

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Economic Growth Exports(1993-1999)
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September 11th did not so much change the world
as show how the world had changedwhile our means
of managing it had not.David Gompert, RAND
Corporation
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A New Kind of War

• Who is the enemy?
• terrorist networks of global reach
• Where is the battlefield?
• Transcends sovereign borders
• What risks are we willing to take?
• Unprecedented national vulnerability
• Who are our allies?
• International coalition? of friends?

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The Instruments of War

• Diplomacy political influence
• Domestic law enforcement
• Financial controls
• Economic sanctions and rewards
• Intelligence and covert action
• Immigration controls
• Homeland security

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The Instruments of War

• Diplomacy political influence
• Domestic law enforcement
• Financial controls
• Economic sanctions and rewards
• Intelligence and covert action
• Immigration controls
• Homeland security
• and Military force
• as usual, subject to political objectives
• instrument of choice??

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What Kind of Peace?

• Winning the peace is essential
• Clash of civilizations or self-fulfilling
  prophecy ?
• Black holes in far-flung places
• Avoid martyrs remove excuses
• American commitment necessary
• How unilateral?
• The problem of the 21st century is the same as
  that of the 20th fanaticism armed with power.
• Elie Wiesel

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What Does It Mean?

• The US is a global power -- unavoidably
• That doesnt mean we get our way -- or should

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What Does It Mean?

• The US is a global power -- unavoidably
• That doesnt mean we get our way -- or should
• The world looks to us to stand for certain things
• Were debating what those things are

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What Does It Mean?

• The US is a global power -- unavoidably
• That doesnt mean we get our way -- or should
• The world looks to us to stand for certain things
• Were debating what those things are
• The world is NOT made in our own image
• Perspectives and interests are different

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What Does It Mean?

• The US is a global power -- unavoidably
• That doesnt mean we get our way -- or should
• The world looks to us to stand for certain things
• Were debating what those things are
• The world is NOT made in our own image
• Perspectives and interests are different
• To succeed, we must see the world as others do
• and look at ourselves as others see us

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What Does It Mean?

• The US is a global power -- unavoidably
• That doesnt mean we get our way -- or should
• The world looks to us to stand for certain things
• Were debating what those things are
• The world is NOT made in our own image
• Perspectives and interests are different
• To succeed, we must see the world as others do
• and look at ourselves as others see us
• The threats are significant
• but so are the opportunities