Decision Support

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Decision Support Executive Information
Systems -
The Strategic Choice Approach

• An Example of Soft Operational Research
• Amare Michael Desta

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What does Soft OR Mean?

• Not soft headed, irrational or lacking in rigour
• But interpretative, qualitative and an
  alternative to quantitative methods.

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Rational Comprehensive Planning A Hard
Decision Making Paradigm

• Identify your goal or objective
• Identify your possible courses of action
• Predict the consequences of your possible
  actions
• Evaluate the consequences of your possible
  actions
• Select the action that best achieves your
  objective or goal.

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Hard v Soft Analytical Characteristics

• Hard
• Data available
• Single objective and optimisation
• People are passive
• Attempts to abolish uncertainty

• Soft
• Data Unavailable
• Multiple objectives and non-optimisation
• People are active subjects
• Accepts uncertainty and encourages flexibility

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Contribution of Soft OR

• Some approaches view organisations as machines
  that can be fine tuned
• Soft OR views organisations as groups of humans
  each with their own interests and motivations
• Soft OR contributes to understanding the dynamics
  upon which organisations work.

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Contribution of Soft OR

• Soft OR techniques allow a common understanding
  of perspectives, roles, worldviews and their
  interrelationships
• They make these perspectives explicit, so that
  they can be understood by others, discussed and
  acted upon.

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Common Characteristics of Soft OR Techniques

• Do not claim to be able to define what is true
• They try to interpret, define, explore, use (and
  possibly change) various perspectives in the
  organisation
• They enhance learning, understanding and debate.

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Hard v Soft OR

• Hard OR is
• Tangible
• Easy to explain
• Easy to use

• Soft OR is
• Rather intangible
• Harder to explain
• Harder to use

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Problem Structuring Methods

• Primary focus is usually on the people involved
  with the problem
• Secondary focus will be on the problem itself
• This can change our view of what we mean by a
  successful intervention.

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Origins of the Approach

• More empirical than theoretical
• Describes some methods for dealing with complex
  decision problems
• Based on observations of how managers cope with
  dilemmas
• A mixture of practical and intuitive methods
• Recognises the importance of uncertainty, and
  responses to types of uncertainty.

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UE
UV
We need more information
We need clearer policies
How do we respond to this choice?
Uncertainty about guiding values
Uncertainty about our working environment
We need broader perspectives
Uncertainty about related agendas
UR
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Issues
Progress Package
Decisions
Shape
Choose
Preferences And Uncertainties
Problem Focus
Design
Compare
Range of Strategies
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Crime is a real problem in this country. We are
spending more and more on locking up increasing
numbers of people in prisons, yet crime goes on
rising. Many of those in prison are there for
reasons connected with medical problems (e.g.
drug addiction, mental illness) yet when they
come out these problems are unresolved and so
they go straight back to crime. Perhaps the
answer is longer prison sentences.
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Dynamics of Strategic ChoiceShaping Mode

• Decision areas are described as questions areas
  where alternative courses of action are possible
• The decisions are then presented on a decision
  graph.

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Improve prison Medical care
Build more Prisons?
Increase rewards For informing?
Impose longer Sentences?
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Identify Problem Focus

• Select three or four decision areas
• Usually these are important, urgent and/or
  connected
• Add any factors as necessary to the uncertainty
  list.

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Example Problem Focus

• Build more prisons?
• Impose longer sentences?
• Increase rewards for informing?
• Can we find more sites to build more prisons (UE)?

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Dynamics of Strategic ChoiceDesigning Mode

• For each problem focus we
• List a small number actions in each area
• List incompatible options
• List all feasible decision schemes by selecting
  an action from each area.

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Example Option GraphLines Show Incompatibilities
Build More Prisons?
Yes Ten More
No
Yes Five More
No
Increase Rewards For Informing?
Yes
No
Yes
Impose Longer Sentences?
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Feasible Decision Schemes
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Uncertainty List

• The list of uncertainties now has two more
  factors
• Can we find sites for more prisons (UE)?
• Will ten prisons be too many (UE)?
• Will Government/legal profession support longer
  sentences (UV)?

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Dynamics of Strategic ChoiceComparing Mode

• In this mode we compare the decision schemes
  using
• Identifying comparison areas
• Within each area assign a value to each scheme.

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Example Comparison Areas

• We can compare each scheme in terms of
• Capital cost ( millions)
• Running costs ( millions)
• Acceptability to government (110 scale in which
  1 is not acceptable)
• Acceptability to the public (1-10 scale).

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Comparison of Schemes
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Comparison Schemes

• In comparing schemes we must always be aware of
  the uncertainty areas. In comparing schemes A
  and B we must consider the uncertainties
  associated with scheme B.

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Dynamics of Strategic ChoiceChoosing Mode

• We construct a commitment package which consists
  of
• Decisions taken now
• Explorations to reduce uncertainty
• Decisions to be deferred until later
• Contingency plans.

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Example Commitment Package

• Decisions taken now none
• Explorations
• - identify sites for 5 prisons
• - consult government/legal agencies over longer
  sentences
• Decisions deferred final decision on scheme B
• Contingency plans none.

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Conclusions

• Technology
• Provides a set of tools to facilitate and
  structure communication. The way that discussion
  sessions are structured and run is important.

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Conclusions (Contd)

• Organisation
• The emphasis is on temporary groupings of staff
  that cut across organisational boundaries.
• Process
• Emphasis is on flexibility rather than strict
  adherence to procedures.

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Conclusions (Contd)

• Products
• The process can produce not only visible products
  like agreed actions and policy changes, but also
  invisible products in the form of changed
  perceptions and views of participants.

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Next week

• Soft Systems approach - Examples
• SSM Methodology
• And the CATWOE approach