HOT IN MY BACKYARD:

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HOT IN MY BACKYARD ENVISIONING FUTURES FOR
THE LOWER MAINLAND IN A CHANGING CLIMATE Sarah
Burch PhD (c) sburch02_at_gmail.com ACT Extreme
Events Adapting Infrastructure October 17th,
2008
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Outline

• Climate change Basics and background
• Framework
• Visions of a changing climate
• Findings

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Climate Change Concepts

• Impacts
• - Damage report

• Response Options
• Adaptation
• Dealing with the effects
• Mitigation
• Dealing with the causes (GHGs)

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• Stern Report, 2006

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Global Frequency of Weather Events
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Average April 1st Snowline
1600
1200
0
1960
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Theoretical basis DISCLOSURE DRAMA DEFENSIBILITY

• LOCALIZE
• SPATIALIZE
• VISUALIZE
• PERSONALIZE

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Four Possible Future Worlds
Deep Sustainability
Efficient Development
Adapt to Risk
Do Nothing
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South Delta Elevation
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Westham Island
Brunswick Point
West Delta Agriculture
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Existing Condition (Low Tide)
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Existing Condition (Storm Surge and Breach)
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February 2006 Storm Surge
Courtesy of Corp. of Delta
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2020 Storm surge (3.03m)
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2050 Storm surge (3.17m)
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2100 Storm surge (3.48m)
2100
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2100 Raised Sea Wall (4.23m)
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2100 Dike Adaptation
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2050 Dikes GHG Reduction
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2100 Deep Sustainability
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Current Land Use
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Land Use 2020
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Land Use 2050
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Land Use 2100
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Land Use 2100
Land Use 2100
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Land Use 2100
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Land Use 2100
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Current Conditions
Power line Corridor
Existing Housing
Grouse Mountain
Mosquito Creek
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2020
North Shore 2020
Some expansion of single family homes
Increased debris flows / erosion
Stand blowdown
LABEL INCREASED DEBRIS FLOWS/EROSION IN MOSQUITO
CREEK, BLOWDOWN, SOME EXPANSION OF SINGLE FAMILY
HOMES
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2050
North Shore 2050
Broad-leafed regrowth
Lower summer flows, scoured and eroded banks
Burnt areas
Expansion of homes in higher elevations
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2100
North Shore 2100
Loss of creek / salmon habitat, increased debris
flow risk
Reduced forest health from pests / drought
Further broad-leafed regrowth
Expansion of homes in higher elevations
LABEL REDUCED FOREST HEALTH DUE TO PESTS/DROUGHT
HEAVILY ERODED MOSQUITO CREEK, LOSS OF
CREEK/SLAMON HABITAT INCREASED LANDSLIDE RISK
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North Shore 2100
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Responses to Worlds 1-4

• 86 of respondents think that Delta is in either
  World 1 or 2
• 75 of respondents think that Delta should try to
  achieve World 4

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Feedback from practitioner visioning sessions

• When impacts of climate change will occur in the
  community

Never
20 years
Serious now
50 years
100 years
100 years
50 years
20 years
Serious now
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Key Findings

• Visualization process led to
• Increased concern about climate change
• Increased awareness about response options
• Increased motivation to act
• Process was generally deemed to be
• Highly credible and effective
• Non-visualization process is still useful but
  less so than visualization process

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What we learned from the process

• Climate change is real
• Its already here
• It affects nearly everything
• Past norms no longer apply
• Some impacts go on for centuries (eg. sea-level
  rise)

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• Acknowledgements
• Dr. Stephen Sheppard
• Dr. Alison Shaw
• Dr. Stewart Cohen
• Dr. Jeff Carmichael
• David Flanders
• Research team and partners
• Environment Canada
• Natural Resources Canada
• BC MOE
• BC ILMB
• Fraser Basin Council
• Metro Vancouver
• City of Vancouver
• Corporation of Delta
• District of North Vancouver
• David Suzuki Foundation
• ESRI

THANK YOU!
www.calp.forestry.ubc.ca 604 822-6582