Presented By: Adam Hall,

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Presented By: Adam Hall,

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From March to July Housing starts down 10% and Beacon price down 32 ... Market Has Recently Been Entered By Building Supply Stores Such as Home Depot. The Bear Story ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Presented By: Adam Hall,


1
  • Presented By Adam Hall,
  • Alex Harbin, Dan Krejci

2
Investment Thesis
  • Beacon is selling for 19.97 a 31 discount to
    52-week High of 28.97.
  • Market Negativity about Residential Housing
    Starts.
  • Only 13 of Revenues at Risk.
  • From March to July Housing starts down 10 and
    Beacon price down 32.
  • Increasing branches increases market value.

3
What Beacon Does
  • Roofing Supply and Building Material Supply
    Distributor
  • Operates 155 Branches in 31 states and 3 Canadian
    provinces
  • Grows through acquisition

4
Beacon Roofing is a Value Investment
3 Reasons to Invest
  • 1. Market Negativity Has Created a Great Price
  • 2. Growth and Market Share are both increasing.
  • 3. Fits well in APM Portfolio

5
Price Sensitive But Revenues Are Not
  • .922 Correlation Coefficient with Housing starts
    since March.

6
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7
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8
Re-Roofing will Prosper
Age of US Houses
Median House Age 30
Date Built
9
Growing Revenue Free Cash Flow
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 32.44 Relative
Valuation 33.27 Todays Price 19.97
Refer to handout for models
10
Historical Performance
  • ROE20.46 ttm

11
Past Growth Future
  • Beacon has completed 15 Acquisitions since 1997
  • Will Continue to Grow Through Acquisition
  • Has Established Relationships with Clients
  • Revenues Have Grown by 30.6 Annually from
    2000-2005
  • EPS Have Grown 57.9 Annually Over Same Period

12
Competition
  • 38 of Market Divided among 4 firms ABC(13.7),
    Bradco(9.4), Beacon(7.8) and Allied(7.4)
  • Other 62 Divided Between 1500 Independent
    Distributors
  • Market Has Recently Been Entered By Building
    Supply Stores Such as Home Depot

13
The Bear Story
  • Dependency on acquisitions
  • Too much leverage
  • Cyclical nature of the industry
  • Continued market irrationality

14
A Good Fit APM Criteria
  • Learning Experience- Sell July 07 22.50 Puts to
    have more options in the portfolio.
  • Mentor Keeps up with stock- Adam loves APM class
  • Not Too many names (25-30), sell WGO or JOSB if
    necessary
  • Adequate return- 6,000 instant cash
  • International diversification- No Domestic
    Building Materials in Portfolio.

15
APM Portfolio
16
Execution and Value
  • Sell 15 contracts of 22.50 July 07 Puts for
    4.00/share.
  • This will increase our cash position 6,000.
  • Share Now 19.97----18.50 Break-even.
  • Market paying a 1.47 premium for these puts due
    to negative market sentiment.

17
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