Title: Presented By: Adam Hall,
1- Presented By Adam Hall,
- Alex Harbin, Dan Krejci
2Investment Thesis
- Beacon is selling for 19.97 a 31 discount to
52-week High of 28.97. - Market Negativity about Residential Housing
Starts. - Only 13 of Revenues at Risk.
- From March to July Housing starts down 10 and
Beacon price down 32. - Increasing branches increases market value.
3What Beacon Does
- Roofing Supply and Building Material Supply
Distributor - Operates 155 Branches in 31 states and 3 Canadian
provinces - Grows through acquisition
4Beacon Roofing is a Value Investment
3 Reasons to Invest
- 1. Market Negativity Has Created a Great Price
- 2. Growth and Market Share are both increasing.
- 3. Fits well in APM Portfolio
5Price Sensitive But Revenues Are Not
- .922 Correlation Coefficient with Housing starts
since March.
6(No Transcript)
7(No Transcript)
8Re-Roofing will Prosper
Age of US Houses
Median House Age 30
Date Built
9Growing Revenue Free Cash Flow
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 32.44 Relative
Valuation 33.27 Todays Price 19.97
Refer to handout for models
10Historical Performance
11Past Growth Future
- Beacon has completed 15 Acquisitions since 1997
- Will Continue to Grow Through Acquisition
- Has Established Relationships with Clients
- Revenues Have Grown by 30.6 Annually from
2000-2005 - EPS Have Grown 57.9 Annually Over Same Period
12Competition
- 38 of Market Divided among 4 firms ABC(13.7),
Bradco(9.4), Beacon(7.8) and Allied(7.4) - Other 62 Divided Between 1500 Independent
Distributors - Market Has Recently Been Entered By Building
Supply Stores Such as Home Depot
13The Bear Story
- Dependency on acquisitions
- Too much leverage
- Cyclical nature of the industry
- Continued market irrationality
14A Good Fit APM Criteria
- Learning Experience- Sell July 07 22.50 Puts to
have more options in the portfolio. - Mentor Keeps up with stock- Adam loves APM class
- Not Too many names (25-30), sell WGO or JOSB if
necessary - Adequate return- 6,000 instant cash
- International diversification- No Domestic
Building Materials in Portfolio.
15APM Portfolio
16Execution and Value
- Sell 15 contracts of 22.50 July 07 Puts for
4.00/share. - This will increase our cash position 6,000.
- Share Now 19.97----18.50 Break-even.
- Market paying a 1.47 premium for these puts due
to negative market sentiment.
17Questions?