Attaining the Millennium Development Goals in Bangladesh: How Likely

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Attaining the Millennium Development Goals in
BangladeshHow Likely What Will It Take?
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Five MDGs analyzed in this Report

• Reduction of consumption poverty
• Infant and under-five mortality reduction
• Reduction in child malnutrition
• Universal primary enrollment
• Elimination of gender disparity in school
  enrollment

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Limitations of much of the MDG discussion so far

• Analysis has been at a highly aggregate level
  typically the level of the country. This is
  meaningless in a large and heterogeneous country
  like Bangladesh.
• The likelihood of attaining the MDGs hasnt been
  usefully linked to the factors that influence MD
  indicators. This is necessary to address the
  question what will it take to attain the MDGs?

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Large spatial variation in levels of changes in
MD indicators

• There are large divisional variations in all MD
  indicators in Bangladesh. For instance, the
  infant mortality rate ranges from 64 deaths per
  1,000 live births in Khulna to 127 deaths per
  1,000 live births in Sylhet.
• Inter-district variations in infant mortality are
  even greater, as seen in the following map.

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Infant Mortality Rate, 2000 (infant deaths per
1,000 live births)
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Net primary enrollment rates also vary a great
deal across divisions
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and across districts
Net primary enrollment rate, 2000
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Geographic Concentration of MD indicators

• The wide disparity in MD indicators results in
  the geographical distribution of these indicators
  being heavily concentrated.
• This indicates the need for targeting MDG-related
  interventions to poorly-performing divisions,
  districts, and perhaps even villages (if these
  could be identified).

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For instance, 3 areas (out of a total of 14)
account for nearly half of all underweight
children in the country
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The same is true of all out-of-school children in
the country.
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MDG attainment

• Clearly, attaining the MDGs will require action
  in the poorest divisions, districts and villages.
• How can it be done? What will it take?

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Estimation of household, behavioral models of MD
indicators

• Using household survey data from various sources,
  we have attempted to quantify the factors
  associated with the reduction of consumption
  poverty, infant mortality, child malnutrition,
  and primary school enrollment and completion.
• These models are used to project changes in MD
  indicators by 2015 under certain intervention
  scenarios.

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• We have considered
• General Interventions
• Real annual GDP growth of 4 per capita
• Expanded adult male and female schooling
• Increased sanitation coverage
• Improved electricity coverage
• Improved roads and better transport access

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• Sectoral Interventions
• Various sector-specific interventions, such as
• Increased coverage of Food-for-Work, Primary
  Education Stipends and VGD programs
• Increased immunization coverage
• Reduced pupil-teacher ratios at the primary level

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Results of the Simulations

• Large improvements in all the MD indicators are
  possible with concerted action in many areas.
• Both general and sector-specific interventions
  will be important in attaining the MDGs.

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Attaining the poverty MDG is possible (indeed as
early as 2010) with a package of interventions
(in spite of falling per capita land availability
and increasing inequality)
MDG level
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Likewise, it would be possible to attain the
under-five mortality MDG with a package of four
interventions
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but attaining the child underweight MDG will be
extremely challenging
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Likewise, it will be very difficult for
Bangladesh to attain a net primary enrollment
rate of 100 by 2015
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and a 100 primary completion rate by 2015
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Gender Disparity in School Opportunities MDG

• Note that Bangladesh has already attained the
  gender disparity MDG of having equal numbers of
  boys and girls enrolled in primary and secondary
  schools.
• In this sense, Bangladesh is ahead of India and
  Pakistan.

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Summing Up

• Bangladeshs performance during the 1990s on all
  the MD indicators has been impressive.
• Bangladesh has already attained the Gender
  Disparity MDG.
• In addition, it should be possible for Bangladesh
  to attain two other MDGs out of the five
  considered in this report viz., consumption
  poverty and under-five mortality.
• However, attaining the MDGs with respect to child
  malnutrition and primary school enrollment and
  completion will be challenging.

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Areas of Focus

• Targeting interventions to lagging divisions and
  districts
• General interventions, such as
• Economic growth
• Improved infrastructure (especially sanitation,
  electricity, and road access)
• Expansion of female schooling
• More effective delivery of publicly-provided
  social services

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Sectoral Interventions

• Sectoral interventions, such as
• Scaling up targeted programs, such as
  Food-for-Work, Primary Education Stipends, and
  Vulnerable Group Development
• Increased child immunization coverage
• Lowering the pupil-teacher ratio at the primary
  level

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• Finally, the importance of
• systematically monitoring MD outcomes at
  disaggregated levels and
• evaluating the impact of public programs cannot
  be overemphasized.
• Currently, there is no system for monitoring
  progress toward attainment of the MDGs at the
  district level.

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Caveats

• Estimations and simulations subject to usual
  problems of measurement error, estimation bias,
  etc.
• Therefore, projections are indicative and should
  be used in rough-order planning.

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• Simulations focus on quantitative variables and
  not on qualitative variables, such as governance.
  Does not mean that governance is not important,
  just that it is difficult to take that into
  account in the simulations.
• The simulations assume business as usual. Any
  improvements in governance will result in
  speedier attainment of MDGs.