Biodiversity and Ecoforecasting I

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Biodiversity and Ecoforecasting I
The hallmark of good science is the ability for
successful prediction.
Prof. J. Westfall (1960)

• Ben Franklin and Tom Jefferson
• Lt. Matthew Maury and Adm. Robert Fitzroy
• Revolution in Science Pasteur and Roux
• Temporal/spatial ambiguity resolved by artificial
  satellites TIROS and ESSA

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B. Franklin and T. Jefferson 1743, 1785

• . On 21 Oct, Friday, at 9pm 1734, a great storm
  prevented Franklin's intended observation of an
  eclipse of the moon. But when Franklin received
  the northern papers, he saw that the eclipse had
  been observed in Boston and other places to the
  northeast. He had earlier traced the course of
  thunderstorms
• Ordinance of 1785. Provided for the rectangular
  land survey of the Old Northwest. The rectangular
  survey has been called "the largest single act of
  national planning in our history and ... the most
  significant in terms of continuing impact on the
  body politic

B. Franklin
T. Jefferson
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(Cmdr) Lt. Matthew Maury and Adm. Robert Fitzroy
1863
Matthew Maury Robert Fitzroy

• Mellersh, H.E.L. FitzRoy of the Beagle, 1968,
  Mason and Lipscomb, 308p, ISBN
• http//www.eraoftheclipperships.com/page70.html

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Revolution by Science Biology and Medicine
1885, 1894

• Louis Pasteur discovered the method for the
  attenuation of virulent microorganisms that is
  the basis of vaccination, and developed vaccines
  against chicken cholera, anthrax and swine
  erysipelas. After mastering his method of
  vaccination, he applied this concept to rabies.
  On July 6, 1885, his pioneering rabies treatment
  was tested on a human for the first time.1894
  Roux describes first diphtheria cure, tetanus and
  typhoid follow. Humans begin to cure, not simply
  treat, disease. Mankind is no longer a helpless
  bystander in the face of these infections.

Louis Pasteur Emile Roux
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Tiros I and ESSA I1960, 1966

• Satellite observation of the earth removes
  temporal-spatial ambiguity.

Hurricane Faith off Cape Hatteras, Noth
Caarolina 1 Sepember 1966
First TIROS image, 1 December 1960
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Biodiversity and Ecoforecasting II
Owen Glendower I can call forth spirits from
the vasty deep. Hotspur Why,
so can I. So can any man
but will they come
when you do call for them? W.
Shakespear Henry IV, Part I
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Do Viral Pandemics Cause Sunspots?

• Figure 1 Mean sunspot numbers compared with
  timings of major world-wide pandemics (P) of
  influenza. Note in particular 1918 "Spanish Flu"
  (H1N1) caused 500,000 deaths in the USA 1957-58
  "Asian Flu" (H2N2) caused 70,000 deaths in the
  USA "Hong Kong flu" (H3N2) caused 34,000 deaths
  in the USA 1977 "Red flu" (H1N1) caused 30,000
  deaths in the USA.

 HOYLE F.   WlCKRAMASINGHE, N. C.  Nature 343,
304 (25 January 1990) Sunspots and influenza