WRAP Emission Inventory Status

1
WRAP Emission Inventory Status

• For the Attribution of Haze Project Workgroup
• Presented by Jeffrey Stocum
• Oregon DEQ Emissions Inventory Specialist
• as a representative of the
• WRAP Emissions Forum
• March 29th 2004

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Available EIs

• WRAP Interim 2002 Point and Area Source Emissions
  Estimates prepared by E.H. Pechan
• Mobile Sources Emission Inventory prepared by
  Environ
• Dust Emission Inventory prepared by Environ

3
Interim 2002 EI

• Often referred to as the like 2002 EI
• This EI is a Point and Area Source inventory for
  criteria pollutants
• The official 2002 EIs submitted to EPA and then
  to WRAP by the states will not be available until
  fall 2004.
• Too late for this AOH project

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Interim 2002 EI cont

• These official 2002 EIs will be input into the
  Emissions Data Management System (EDMS) between
  June 2004 and Sept 2004 when the EDMS is
  scheduled to become operational
• Currently the EDMS project is in the comment
  period concerning the Hardware and Software
  Development Plan

5
Point Sources

• Began with Ver. 3 of the 1996 WRAP point source
  database
• Electricity Generating Units (EGUs) emissions are
  based on 2002 Emissions Tracking
  System/Continuous Emissions Monitoring (ETS/CEM)
  and 2002 EIA-767 estimates for large plants that
  submit to that system
• Copper smelters in Arizona and New Mexico
  provided 2002 SO2 emissions

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Point Sources Cont

• Non-smelter, non utility sources (i.e. everything
  else) were projected to 2002 using growth factors
  and Integrated Assessment System (IAS) model
  algorithms
• But
• The 100 largest SO2 facilities estimates were
  replaced using 2000 facility level estimates
  submitted by the states gleaned from the Pechan
  milestone report

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Area Sources

• Doesnt include mobile and fire sources ag.
  burning, wildfire, or prescribed burning which
  were covered by other projects
• Have been projected from the 1999 NEI Version 3
• E.H. Pechan used the Economic Growth Analysis
  System (EGAS) 4.0 to provide growth factors to
  produce a 2002 inventory

8
Environ Mobile EI

• Emissions were estimated for the 1996 base year
  and for four future years- 2003, 2008, 2013, 2018
• Thus the 2003 year will be combined with the
  Interim 2002 Point and Area EI
• The Mobile Sources EI covered
• On Road Mobile
• Off Road Mobile
• Road Dust Emissions

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Mobile EI cont

• Emissions were estimated for the average weekday
  in each of the 4 seasons
• Pollutants PM10, PM2.5, NOX, SOX, VOC, CO, NH3,
  SO4, OC and EC
• CARB supplied Californias county level Mobile EI
  using EMFAC2000 and OFFROAD

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On Road Mobile Sources

• Vehicle classes broken into light duty (passenger
  cars, motorcycles, and trucks lt8500 lbs) and
  heavy duty vehicles
• Separated gasoline and diesel
• Emissions estimated by type of roadway
• Rural/Urban
• Interstate, Principal Arterial, Minor arterial,
  Major collector, Minor Collector, Local

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On Road Mobile Sources cont

• Utilized EPA MOBILE6
• Many default inputs were updated by various
  states
• RVP, vehicle registrations, temperatures, I/M
  prog.
• EPA PART5 used for particulates
• There were many modifications made that are
  detailed in the report

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On Road Mobile Sources cont

• March 2001 M6 draft version used for the 1996
  year EI
• Activity is Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)
• From National Emissions Trends (NET) ver. 3
• At the county and SCC level (vehicle type and
  roadway type)
• Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, Nevada,
  Washington provided updated VMT

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On Road Mobile Sources cont
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On Road Mobile Future Years

• Sept 2001 M6 draft version used for all future
  years (03, 08, 13)
• VMT Projection
• Accomplished through the use of VMT growth
  factors developed from EPAs Heavy Duty Vehicle
  rulemaking
• Utilized all updated MOBILE6 information that was
  received from the states

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On Road Mobile Future Years cont
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Off Road Mobile Sources

• Covers the off road sources such as
• Railroads
• Aircraft
• Agricultural equipment
• Lawn and garden equipment
• Recreational marine vessels and personal
  watercraft
• Construction equipment
• Airport ground service equipment
• Commercial marine vessels

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Off Road Mobile Sources cont

• Utilized NONROAD 2000 Model for the 1996 base
  year and the NONROAD 2002 model for the 03, 08,
  13 and 18
• Commercial marine, locomotives, aircraft are not
  included in the NONROAD model and are estimated
  using traditional NEI methods

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Off Road Mobile Sources cont

• Commercial Marine
• Within 25 miles of the coastline
• Coos Bay -OR, Columbia River Ports, Puget Sound
  ports, Snake River barging
• Emissions ? LF EF Ship Power Time
• CARB provided California Emissions

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Off Road Mobile Sources cont

• Locomotives
• 1996 NET Fuel use EFs
• Aircraft
• Utilized FAA Emissions and Dispersion Modeling
  System (EDMS)
• _at_ 9 large hubs
• Applied to smaller airport aircraft traffic
  throughout 12 WRAP states
• CARB supplied CA aircraft emissions

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Off Road Mobile Future Years

• The growth factors used in the EPA NONROAD2002
  model were deemed too large for projections

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Off Road Mobile Future Years cont

• ENVIRON developed state level growth factors so
  that state to state growth factors could be taken
  into account for estimating future year emissions

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Road Dust

• Paved and Unpaved portions
• Original 1996 EI from National Emissions Trends
  (NET 96)
• When the initial 2018 work was completed for
  modeling it was determined that there were too
  many inconsistencies resulting in sharp changes
  in emissions at county (artificial) boundaries

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Road Dust cont
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Road Dust cont

• Old 96 inventory was adjusted-
• Paved road reentrained road dust from PART5
• Unpaved based on EPAs AP-42 road dust emission
  equation with adjustments
• Revisions to State Average Silt Content
• Revisions to Average Daily Traffic Volume (ADTV)
  Assumptions
• Application of Transport Fractions (Pace 2002)

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Road Dust cont
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Road Dust cont
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Road Dust cont

• Paved road dust emissions increase by about three
  percent/year from 1996 to 2018
• Unpaved road dust emissions are projected to
  decrease between 1996 and 2018, by about 0.75
  per year
• Overall road dust PM10 emissions increase by
  about 6 from 1996 to 2018.

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Summary

• Attribution of Haze Emission Inventories
• We have
• Interim 2002 Point and Area source EI grown from
  1996 (Point) and 1999 (Area)
• 2003 On Road Mobile EI
• 2003 Off Road Mobile EI
• Any year Road Dust EI based on extrapolation
  between 1996 and 2018