Climate Change Elements for a discussion

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Climate ChangeElements for a discussion

• IFAD
• Rome, May 18-19, 2007
• Alejandro Deeb

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change in runoff by 2050

• Many of the major food-bowls of the world are
  projected to become significantly drier
• Globally there will be more precipitation
• Higher temperatures will tend to reduce run off
• A few important areas drier (Mediterranean,
  southern South America, northern Brazil, west and
  south Africa)

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Some climate change issues

• Patterns of precipitation and runoff will change
  substantially
• Rain in fewer, heavier events leading to more
  floods and dry spells less ground water recharge
• Projections for increased number of rainy days
  (left) and amount of rain per wet day (Right) for
  2041-2060 period based on modeling (HadRM2)

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EuropeChanging flood frequency Lenher et al
2006 Climatic Change

• Over much of Europe one in a hundred year
  floods will occur every couple of decades

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Mountain water systems
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South AmericaYanamarey Glacier, Peru
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Retreat in volume and area of the Chacaltaya
glacier (Bolivia) since 1940
Source Francou, 2004
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Sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Caribbean
for August 2005 (0.5 Celsius isothermals above
1961-1990 average)
Source IRI, 2005
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The Greenhouse Effect
Met Office Hadley Centre
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Strong Global Warming Observed
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and
Research Based on Folland et al (2000) and Jones
and Moberg (2003)
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Rapid rise in the stock of Carbon Dioxide in the
atmosphere post 1850
Source IPCC TAR (slide taken from Hadley Centre)
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Flows of emissions of CO2 from burning
fossil-fuels have risen rapidly since 1950
Gt CO2
Source World Resources Institute, CAIT
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes
(IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
(SRES), published in 2000 The A1 storyline and
scenario describes a future world of very rapid
economic growth, global population that peaks in
mid-century and declines thereafter and, in
several variations of it, the rapid introduction
of new and more efficient technologies. Major
underlying themes are convergence between
regions, capacity-building, and increased
cultural and social interactions, with a
substantial reduction in regional differences in
per capita income. A1 is subdivided into A1FI
(fossil-fuel intensive), A1T (high-technology),
and A1B (balanced), with A1FI generating the most
CO2 emissions and A1T the least (of the A1
storyline, and the second lowest emissions of all
six marker scenarios). But even in the A1T world,
atmospheric concentrations of CO2 still near a
doubling of preindustrial levels by 2100. For a
contrasting vision of the worlds social and
technological future, SRES offers the B1
storyline, which is (marginally) the
lowest-emissions case of all the IPCCs
scenarios. The storyline and scenario family is
one of a converging world with the same global
population as A1, peaking in mid-century and
declining thereafter, but with more rapid change
in economic structures towards service and
information economies, which is assumed to cause
a significant decrease in energy intensity. The
B1 world finds efficient ways of increasing
economic output with less material, cleaner
resources, and more efficient technologies. Many
scientists and policymakers have doubted whether
a transition to a B1 world is realistic and
whether it can be considered equally likely when
compared to the scenarios in the A1 family. The
IPCC did not discuss probabilities of each
scenario, making a risk-management framework for
climate policy problematic since risk is
probability times consequences.
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Dangerous climate

• 0.6 C Coral bleaching
• 0.6 C West Antarctic losing ice
• 0.7 C Kilimanjaro glacier gone
• 1.0 C Tropical Glacier in the Andes gone
• 1.6 C Onset of melting of Greenland
• 2-3 C Collapse of Amazon rainforest
• 4 C Collapse of THC current
• Source Exeter Conference, 2005

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Where is it coming from?

• Country Total Ton/GDP Ton/cap
• (BTA) ton/Mpp
• USA 6.9 720 24.6
• EU-25 4.7 450 10.5
• Germany 1.0 470 12.3
• Japan 1.3 400 10.4
• China 4.9 1020 3.9
• India 1.9 770 1.9
• Mexico 0.5 590 5.2
• Brazil 0.8 680 5.0
• Total 33.6
• Source WRI, 2006

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To stabilise at below 550 ppm, emissions must
start to fall soon developing countries must be
part of the solution
Business as usual (A2)
Source IPPC
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SPACC
ACCC