Stratospheric Processes

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CLIVAR 1995 ?
WGNE WGCMWGSF
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Recent and Expected Deliverables
http//www.aero.jussieu.fr/sparc

• SPARC reference climatology (done)
• SPARC Aerosol Assessment
• Review paper on the Annular Modes
• Report on Chemistry-Climate
• Instituted new PSC assessment for next WMO ozone
  assessment
• Instituted group on GWP of HFC-134a for IPCC

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Stratosphere-Troposphere coupling
Detection, Attribution Prediction of
Stratospheric Changes
SPARCs New Themes
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Workshop on Process-oriented validation of
coupled-chemistry climate modelsGrainau /
Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany, November
2003Conveners V. Eyring, N.R.P. Harris, M. Rex,
T.G. Shepherd
Motivation CCMs have different levels of
complexity, produce a wide range of results
concerning timing and extent of ozone recovery
and the overall confidence of ozone predictions
is currently hard to assess Scope ?
Develop a standard for process-oriented model
validation with a focus on the models ability
to predict future ozone Outcome ? A
table of core processes for stratospheric CCMs
within 4 categories Dynamics, Chemistry
Microphysics, Radiation, and Transport For
each process, the table includes model
diagnostics, variables relevant to apply the
diagnostic in CCMs, sources of observational
data, references, contacts and links Desires
? CCM groups apply diagnostics in a
step-wise approach over the next years
? Broad support from atmospheric
science community and programme managers Way
ahead ? SPARC working group on CCM
validation progress can be made in time for
next WMO-UNEP and IPCC assessments
? Development of diagnostic software
packages Benefit ? Overall confidence
in CCMs will increase
http//www.pa.op.dlr.de/workshops/ccm2003
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SPARC General Assembly1-6 August 2004Victoria,
Canada
http//sparc.seos.uvic.ca
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http//www.sparc.sunysb.edu ftp//atmos.sparc.suny
sb.edu Directory /pub/sparc
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Global data sets
www.gewex.org
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MODELS PROJECT TEMPERATURE INCREASES ASSOCIATED
WITH CO2 INCREASES. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURING.
HOWEVER, TRENDS DERIVED FROM GEWEX SATELLITE
CLOUD PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT CLOUD COVER MAY
HAVE BEEN DECREASING DURING THE SAME PERIOD.
WHAT INFLUENCES HAVE THESE POSSIBLE DECREASES IN
CLOUD COVER HAD ON THE RECENT TRENDS IN
TEMPERATURE? The same for water vapour?
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GPCP No evidence for a significant global trend
over last 20 years...
Curtis/Adler/Huffman 912
But regional trends exist
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CEOP Implementation Underway
Timing of new satellites GEWEX/CLIVAR campaigns
provides opportunity for significant benefit from
a more coordinated observation period.
Coordinated EnhancedObserving Period
North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)
Monsoon Experiment in South America (MESA)
(MDB)
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(No Transcript)
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The First Global Integrated Data Sets of the
Water Cycle
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WCRP www.wmo.ch/web/wcrp/wcrp-home.html SPARC
www.aero.jussieu.fr/sparc Climate chemistry
model intercomparison workshop www.pa.op.dlr.de/w
orkshops/ccm2003 SPARC data centre
www.sparc.sunysb.edu, ftp server
atmos.sparc.sunysb.edu, directory
/pub/sparc SPARC General Assembly
sparc.seos.uvic.ca GEWEX www.gewex.org