SHOCKED BY THE DARK

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SHOCKED BY THE DARK THE GREAT BLACKOUT OF AUGUST
14, 2003 AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT DR. ROGER N.
ANDERSON DOHERTY SENIOR SCHOLAR LAMONT-DOHERTY
EARTH OBSERVATORY DEPARTMENT OF EARTH
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
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ANATOMY OF A BLACKOUT Discovery Channel 10
pm November 2

• SHORTLY AFTER 4 PM ON AUGUST 14TH, 2003
• BIGGEST BLACKOUT IN U.S. HISTORY
• A ROLLING CASCADE ...
• POWER PLANTS SHUTTING DOWN AND CIRCUIT BREAKERS
  TRIPPING ALL OVER THE NORTHEAST
• FIFTY MILLION PEOPLE SUDDENLY WITHOUT POWER

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MAJOR LESSONS TO BE LEARNED
National Electric Reliability Council September
12, 2003
LEFT IS SATELLITE IMAGE OF THE U.S. ON A TYPICAL
NIGHT BEFORE THE BLACKOUT. RIGHT IS HOW IT
LOOKED ON THE NIGHT OF AUGUST 14TH.
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TRAINS AND SUBWAYS JOLT TO A STOP. HUNDREDS OF
THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE ARE TRAPPED UNDERGROUND IN
THE PITCH BLACK
August 14, 2003
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OUTSIDE, ON STREET AFTER STREET, IN CITY AFTER
CITY, TRAFFIC LIGHTS ARE KNOCKED OUT -- JUST AS
RUSH HOUR IS BEGINNING
August 14, 2003
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CELL PHONES GO DEADTV RADIO CHANNELS GO OFF
AIR911 DOESNT ANSWER.
The power outage put a spotlight on serious
problems with New York City's emergency
preparedness and showed the flaws of the 911
emergency call system. Service outages affected
cell phones and cordless telephones, which
prevented millions from calling home. Mayor
Bloomberg, Oct. 29, 2003.
CAR 54, WHERE ARE YOU? "Right now, the city does
not know where the fire trucks, police cars,
ambulances and other cars of city agencies are,"
Bloomberg said.
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August 14, 2003
THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE TAKE TO THE ROADS ON
FOOTDESPERATE TO GET HOME BEFORE DARK
August 14, 2003
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EMERGENCY GENERATORS KICK IN AT HOSPITALS. ..THE
FIRST HEAT VICTIMS START ARRIVING. ..DOCTORS FEAR
THE WORST IS THIS ANOTHER 9/11?
Police precincts, firehouses and hospitals all
lost telephone service, according to the report,
prepared by the mayor's task force. Though the
city has buildings that can be used in
emergencies -- from hurricanes to heat waves --
most are public schools with no back-up power.
August 14, 2003
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GOVERNMENT QUICKLY ASSURED THAT THIS IS ONLY A
BLACKOUT AND NOT TERRORISM WILL THIS BE ANOTHER
SUMMER OF 1977?
Upper West Side of Manhattan, July, 1977
Massive looting, fires and
free-for-all atmosphere. . . Newsweek, July,
1977.
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Government scientific advisers and officials
painted a grim picture before Congress Thursday
of the consequences of a terror attack on the
nation's power grid, saying that any outage that
lasted longer than a couple of days would reduce
urban centers to chaos and collapse the
economy.. UPI Sep 04, 2003
With power out beyond a day or two, both food
and water supplies would soon fail.
Transportation systems would be at a standstill
... natural gas pressure would decline and some
would lose gas altogether -- not good in the
winter time... Communications would be spotty or
non-existent... All in all, our cities would not
be very nice places to be... Martial law would
likely follow. Paul H. Gilbert of the National
Research Council -- congressional testimony --
Sep 04, 2003
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IN THE END, MOST CITIES WERE CALMTHE LIGHTS CAME
ON WITHIN 24-36 HOURS AND WE DODGED THIS BULLET
BUT
Spontaneous Bridge Shuttle -- August 14, 2003 --
For Free
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HOW DOES SOMETHING LIKE THIS HAPPEN IN THIS DAY
AND AGE?
HOW COULD SUCH A LARGE AREA BE AFECTED? AND SO
QUICKLY? WHOS TO BLAME? AND CAN IT HAPPEN
AGAIN? WHAT NEEDS TO BE FIXED? AND HOW CAN WE
FIX IT?
TO UNDERSTAND THE ANSWERS TO THESE QUESTIONS, WE
MUST UNDERSTAND THE SYSTEM -- CALLED "THE GRID--
THAT GETS POWER FROM WHERE IT'S GENERATED TO
WHERE IT'S USED THE LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX
MACHINE KNOWN TO MAN.
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ELECTRICITY REQUIRES 4 SEPARATE PROCESSES TO COME
TOGETHER IN REAL-TIME, ALL DAY-EVERYDAY.
Fuel gas, coal, oil, nuclear, hydro, sun,
wind ALL used to make steam
Power Generation that spins a magnetic turbine
within a copper coil
Transmission Wires to carry electrons charge
Consumption to homes businesses, factories
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COAL IS USED TO GENERATE MORE THAN 50 OF U.S.
ELECTRICITYGAS 30, NUCLEAR 10, HYDRO 10
Energy Consumption
doe.gov
LOSSES
ELECTRICITY CONSUMED
www.bp.com/centres/energy/
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ONE WAY TO INCREASE THE WATER PRESSURE OF THE
HOSE IS TO PUT A NOZZLE ON IT, SO THE WATER CAN
GO FARTHER AND FASTER-- THAT'S UPPING THE VOLTS.
THAT JOB IS DONE WITH TRANSFORMERS, WHICH RAISE
THE VOLTAGE AFTER IT LEAVES THE GENERATORS SO IT
CAN TRAVEL LONG DISTANCES.IN COMMON SIGHT CALLED
A SUBSTATION
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ELECTRICITY CANNOT STAND STILL. IT'S ALWAYS ON
THE MOVEAND IF YOU STOP THE FLOW-- IT'S QUICKLY
USED UPIN MINUTES AS ON AUGUST 14.
Pnnl.gov
UNLIKE WATER-- IT CANNOT YET BE STORED IN A
RESERVOIR-- -- THAT'S WHY THE GENERATORS MUST
PRODUCE THE EXACT AMOUNT OF POWER THAT IS BEING
DEMANDED AT THAT TIME. NOTHING MORE AND NOTHING
LESS THAT'S THE REAL MAGIC OF THE GRID!
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AND TEN OTHERS AROUND THE WORLD SINCE 1999!
Swiss draw blame for Italy outage. Human error
is cited as a 'decisive' reason Oct 28 -
International Herald Tribune
Sept 23, 2003 4 million Sweden/Denmark
Aug 28, 2003 8 million London
Aug 14, 2003 50 million Northeast
Jan 18, 2001 1 million SF area
Dec 26, 1999 3.5 million France
Sept 28, 2003 entire country Italy
Feb 3, 2003 entire country Algeria
Jan 2, 2001 200 million India
May, 2002 40 million Philippines
Jun, 2001 50 million Nigeria
Mar 16, 2002 1/3 country Colombia
Nov 24, 2002 2 million Buenos Aires
http//story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmplstoryu/030
929/241/5f1wy.html http//antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apo
d/astropix.html
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COMPLEX, NONLINEAR SYSTEMS OFTEN EXHIBIT STABLE
BEHAVIOR RIGHT UP TO THE TIME THAT THEY DONT
2003
1999
Fractal
2001
2002
2000
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE
100 Million
Background plot from Amin, IEEE Computer
Applications in Power, 2001
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IT'S ROUTINE FOR POWER LINES AND GENERATORS TO GO
DOWN. BUT THE SYSTEM HAS RARELY COLLAPSED IN A
CASCADING FAILUREAND NEVER BEFORE TO THIS
EXTENTSO WHAT WENT WRONG ON AUGUST 14TH?
Night before was typical, and ordinary
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THE BLACKOUT STARTED MORE THAN A YEAR AGO. ONE OF
THE CONTRIBUTING FACTORS WAS THE LACK OF BACKUP
POWER IN OHIO-- A KEY NUCLEAR POWER PLANT THERE
THAT SUPPLIES 15 OF OHIOS POWER HAS BEEN SHUT
DOWN SINCE THE EARLY MONTHS OF 2002.
The real satellite image of the Blackout
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SO WHEN A POWER PLANT IN EASTLAKE OHIO SHUTS DOWN
AT 131PM ON AUGUST 14, 2003-- THERE ISN'T AS
MUCH RESERVE POWER AS THERE COULD HAVE BEEN. BUT
STILL... THE GRID IS DESIGNED TO DEAL WITH SUCH
LOSSES EVERY DAY.
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BUT WHAT HAPPENED NEXT WAS UNUSUAL. BETWEEN 305
AND 341PM THREE HIGH VOLTAGE TRANSMISSION LINES,
SERVING THE CLEVELAND AREA, STOP WORKING. A
LARGE AMOUNT OF ELECTRICITY WAS DETOURED BY
FIRSTENERGY TO OTHER TRANSMISSION LINES. THOSE
LINES HEATED UP FROM THE ADDED LOADA DANGEROUS
SITUATION THAT TRIGGERED THEM TO AUTOMATICALLY
DISCONNECT FROM THE GRID ONE AFTER THE OTHERTHE
CASCADE HAS BEGUN
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THEN, 61 GIGAWATTS OF POWER IS LOST IN 7 SECONDS!
41038, eleven separate outages of
Transmission lines and 7 Power Plant
auto-shutdowns have occurred. E. Michigan and N.
Ohio are blacked out. Power is no longer flowing
into New York City, but suddenly begins flowing
away from it into Michigan via Canada -- the
wrong way!
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FOR ALL THE DANGER, INCONVENIENCE AND HARDSHIP
THE BLACKOUT CAUSED, THE SYSTEM PROTECTED ITSELF
FROM BEING DESTROYED
41055, NY splits and NE separates
41044, 4 Lines Disconnect PA from NY
41300, cascading sequence complete Blackout
area contained
41157, Canada separates
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THE GRID OPERATORS ARE NOW FULLY FOCUSED ON
BRINGING THE POWER BACK ONBUT IT'S NOT AS EASY
AS FLICKING A SWITCHIT'S A DELEICATE AND
DANGEROUS OPERATIONTHE DREADED BLACK START

• Prioritize and plan restoration sequence in
  response to multi-failures
• Continuous adjustment environment
• People doing the work, not computers
• Links to surrounding regions used to bring back
  the generators one by one

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FAILURE CASCADES MUST BE CAPTURED FOR THE GRID

• Each failure sequence has a unique signature of
  cascading symptoms that it causes -- these must
  be mapped through simulation

http//www.smarts.com
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SO HOW DO WE MAKE THE GRID SMARTER? THE PROBLEM
GOES BACK TO ITS ORIGINS TO CONNECT LOCAL
UTILITIES. LOCAL POWER PLANTS SUPPLIED SMALL
AREAS AND DELIVERED SPARE POWER TO OTHER REGIONS
ONLY IN EMERGENCIES.
BUT FOR THE LAST TWO DECADES, IT HAS BECOME
STANDARD PROCEDURE TO SEND MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF
ELECTRICITY OVER LONG DISTANCES... NOT JUST FOR
RELIABILITY.... BUT TO CREATE COMPETITIVE
PRICESAND PROFITS THE GROWING LONG-DISTANCE
TRAFFIC HAS PLACED A STRAIN ON THE GRID AND
DRIVEN IT TO INSTABILITY.
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TO MAKE THE GRID SMARTER-- NEW HARDWARE IS
NEEDED.
QUANTUM NANO FIBERS AND SUPERCONDUCTING
TRANSMISSION WIRES HOLD 10 TIMES AS MUCH LOAD AS
ALUMINUM AND COPPER... AND MECHANICAL RELAYS MUST
BE REPLACED WITH DIGITAL ONESPREVENTING OR
CONTAINING FUTURE BLACKOUTS.
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BUT EVEN MORE CRITICAL THAN THE GRID'S HARDWARE,
IS ITS COMPUTER SOFTWARE-- BADLY IN NEED OF A
FIX.
ACCURATE, REAL TIME INFORMATION WAS SORELY
LACKING AS THE BLACKOUT UNFOLDEDNO ONE COULD SEE
THE ENTIRE INTERCONNECT.. AND COMPUTER
INTELLIGENCE LIKE THAT PIONEERED AT COLUMBIA
ALLOWS THE GRID TO BE CONVERTED TO A MACHINE
LEARNING ENVIRONMENTTHE GRID LEARNS TO PLAY
CHESS, AND GETS BETTER AND BETTER AT RUNNING
ITSELF EVERY NEW DAYMORE LIKE THE INTERNET
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WHAT'S NOW BEING CALLED THE GREAT BLACKOUT OF
2003 MAY EVEN TURN OUT TO BE A MIXED BLESSING...
IT UNDERSCORES THE ELECTRIC GRID'S ROLE AS THE
ENGINE OF NATIONAL ECONOMIESAROUND THE WORLD
2003
Physics Today
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• THE DELIVERY OF THAT ELECTRICITY WILL BE ONE OF
  THE GREAT CHALLENGES OF THE NEXT DECADEWE MUST
  PROVIDE A GRID FOR 10 BILLION PEOPLE
• At MINIMUM we will need 10 Terawatt/hr year of
  NEW electric power from new clean energy sources
  by 2050.
• For worldwide peace and prosperity we need it to
  be cheap.
• We simply cannot manage the SMART GRID needed to
  move all this electricity with current technology.

http//www.mbendi.co.za/EskomEnterprises/index.htm
2053?
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TO GET TO THIS ELECTRIC ECONOMY OF THE FUTURE, WE
WILL NEED TO BUILD A DISTRIBUTED STORE-GEN SMART
GRID

• Energy transported VAST DISTANCES as
  electricity, rather than by transport of mass
  (coal, oil, gas)
• Vast electrical power grid on continental scale
  interconnecting 100 million asynchronous
  local storage and generation sites
• Local house, block, community, business,
  town, city
• Distributed storage batteries, flywheels,
  hydrogen, pressure
• Distributed generation reverse of storage
  solar and geo
• Everyone Buys low, Sells high to the power
  grid
• Days worth of electrical storage capacity
• Highest quality power more expensive
• Electrical grid does not need to be very
  reliable
• Mass Primary Power input to grid via HV DC
  transmission lines from existing plants plus
  remote (up to 2000 mile) solar wind farms in
  deserts, NIMBY nuclear, clean coal, stranded gas,
  wave, tide, hydro, space-based solarEVERYBODY
  PLAYS --ALL SOURCES NEEDED
• Hydrogen is THE transportation fuel

Anderson, Chu, Oligney, Smalley, Smart Grid of
the Future, White Paper, Texas Energy Center, 2003
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HOW WE GET THERE IS CERTAINLY A GRAND CHALLENGE
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HERES ONE PROBLEM THAT A SMART GRID CAN SOLVE
WIND
DEMAND
NOW
SOLAR
2020
Barry, LLNL
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SO, THERE IS GREAT NEED FOR YOU TO HELP WITH
HUMANITYS TOP PROBLEMS FOR NEXT 50 YEARS

• ENERGY
• WATER
• FOOD
• ENVIRONMENT
• POVERTY
• TERRORISM WAR
• DISEASE
• EDUCATION
• DEMOCRACY
• POPULATION

AND IF WE CAN PROVIDE ABUNDANT, CHEAP ENERGY FOR
THE WORLD, WE CAN SOLVE MOST OF THE OTHERS ON
THIS LIST Rick Smalley, Nobel Laureate, at
Columbia, Sept 23, 2003
2003 6.3 Billion People 2050 8-10
Billion People