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Simon Purton

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Austere. Not EO. Covert. Major (follow-on) Major (initial) Cross-functional. Concept. 13 ... Austere. Covert. Major (follow-on) Major (initial) 2030. 17. 18. We ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Simon Purton


1
Analysing Future Expeditionary Operations
  • Simon Purton
  • Future Capabilities, Research and Technology
  • Allied Command Transformation

2
Analysing future Expeditionary Operations
  • The question
  • Its complexity
  • Cross-functional concept
  • Analysis methods
  • Example output
  • Sub-concepts
  • Analysis methods
  • Example output
  • Next steps

3
A conceptual vision for EO
  • Overarching vision and framework for the conduct
    of EO-related work
  • Serves as a means of communication to share a
    common understanding of EO
  • EO covers the whole mission-type spectrum across
    the globe

4
The question
  • The future environment in 2030
  • The requirements for Expeditionary Operations
  • Characteristics, structure and capabilities
  • Need for Land, Air, Maritime, and Special Forces
    components
  • Effect of employment in demanding environments
  • Training requirements
  • Implications for developing technologies
  • An implementation road map

5
Complexity
  • Analysing Expeditionary Operations
  • No definitive formulation
  • No stopping rule
  • No true-or-false solution
  • No test to assess the correctness
  • Characteristics of Wicked Problems
  • Rittel and Webber (1973)
  • Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning

6
Analysis method
  • Wicked problems can be analysed
  • Recommended approaches
  • Iterative
  • Method selected was a problem structuring process
  • Morphological Analysis
  • Use of descriptive dimensions to define
    potential solution space
  • Dimensions developed in RTO Specialist Team
    meeting

7
Analysing Expeditionary
Deliberate Intervention
Valid space
MISSION-TYPE
Out of NATO
DISTANCE
Humanitarian
In NATO
Non-enduring
DURATION
Enduring
8
Potential operations dimensions
  • Speed of Response
  • Duration of Operation
  • Distance
  • Scale of Operation
  • Mission Type
  • Human Environment
  • Physical Environment
  • Infrastructure
  • Threat

9
Example outputs of Morphological Analysis approach
10
Example outputs of Morphological Analysis approach
11
Example outputs of Morphological Analysis approach
12
Cross-functional concept
  • Would identify the scope of NATO Expeditionary
    Operations
  • What is in.
  • What is out
  • Would define the types of operations considered
    Expeditionary
  • Intentionally high level

?
13
Enriching the Cross-Functional concept
All operations
All Potential Operations
14
Progress so far
  • Dimensions and scalars developed
  • Data collection conducted within NATO
  • Responses received and analysed
  • Too few for robust conclusions
  • Need to enlarge and broaden data sources

15
The question
  • The future environment in 2030 ?
  • The requirements for Expeditionary Operations
  • Characteristics, structure and capabilities
  • Need for Land, Air, Maritime, and Special Forces
    components
  • Effect of employment in demanding environments
  • Training requirements
  • Implications for developing technologies
  • An implementation road map

16
Sub-Concepts the missing pieces?
  • Provide detail of capabilities, characteristics
    and structures
  • Define roles of Land, Air, Maritime, and Special
    Forces components in support of Expeditionary
    Operations

17
Migration to the sub-concepts
2030
Cross-functional Concept
2008
18
We have a method...
  • The future environment in 2030 ?
  • The requirements for Expeditionary Operations ?
  • Characteristics, structure and capabilities
  • Need for Land, Air, Maritime, and Special Forces
    components ?
  • Effect of employment in demanding environments
  • Training requirements
  • Implications for developing technologies
  • An implementation road map

19
Next steps
  • Data collection
  • Broaden sources
  • Issue questionnaire
  • Interview FOGOs
  • Analysis
  • Reporting
  • End 2008
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