Activities and Imperatives

1
Activities and Imperatives
Anna Pirani ICPO Visiting Scientist, Princeton
University
2
To facilitate the analysis and prediction of
Earth System variability and change for use in an
increasing range of practical applications of
direct relevance, benefit and value to society
3
CLIVAR SSC
J. Hurrell (co-chair) NCAR, USA M. Visbeck
(co-chair) IFM-GEOMAR, Germany W Dong Beijing
Normal University, China L. Goddard Earth
Institute at Columbia, USA C. R. Mechoso
University of California, USA T. Tokioka
Frontier Research System for Global Change,
Japan
Ex Officio Members CLIVAR Panel and Working
Group Chairs T. Ackerman (chair GEWEX SSG)

• International CLIVAR Project Office
• H. Cattle (Director)
• A. Pirani, K. Stansfeld, N. Caltabiano, C. Ereno
• S. Grapes

4
CLIVAR
5
CLIVAR Activities

• Climate Modeling

• Anthropogenic Climate Change
• Climate variability and predictability
• Model development and evaluation

• CMIP5 experimental protocol
• Climate System Historical Forecast Project
  (CHFP)
• Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments
  (CORE)
• Coordinated development of ocean synthesis
  products

• Regional climate modeling and analysis

• Regional focus through CLIVAR regional panels
• Task Force on Regional Climate Downscaling

6
CLIVAR Activities

• Observations and Process Studies
• Global Ocean Observing System
• Facilitate completion of key process studies
• Improve prediction of key tropical modes (ENSO,
  TAV)

7
CLIVAR Activities

• Monsoons and African Climate Variability
• Contribute to improved predictions through

• Leveraging key WCRP modeling experiments
  diagnostic subprojects

• Active participation in WCRP IMS project on
  MJO/Monsoon ISO hindcast experiments links to
  YOTC

• Continued interaction with AMMA (via TACE)

• Implementation of the VAMOS Modeling Plan

8
CLIVAR Activities

• Extremes
• Initial focus on drought with GEWEX DIG
• White paper on Drought Predictability and
  Prediction in a Changing Climate Assessing
  Current Predictive Knowledge and Capabilities,
  User Requirements, and Research Priorities

• Decadal Variability and Prediction
• What are the mechanisms of variability?
• Does the oceanic variability have atmospheric
  relevance?
• To what extent is decadal variability in the
  oceans and atmosphere predictable?

9
CLIVAR Contributions to Implementation of the
WCRP Strategic Framework
10

• Asked each panel/WG to identify
• Imperatives over the coming years to 2013 and,
  perhaps, continuing over the next decade?
  Activities that "must" be continued and/or
  implemented because they are of the highest
  scientific importance with a high likelihood of
  success.
• What are the frontiers for the next decade and
  beyond?
• What key developments to enabling infrastructure
  necessary to deliver to the above.

• Organized around
• WCRP crosscutting topics (ACC, decadal and
  seasonal prediction, monsoon and extremes) under
  COPES
• Additional focus on observations, synthesis and
  ocean modeling as particular CLIVAR contributions
  to overarching COPES themes

11
CLIVAR Imperatives

• Anthropogenic Climate Change

• Natural versus forced variability
• Regional phenomena
• Extremes
• (Complete CMIP5)

• Decadal Variability, Predictability and
  Prediction

• Determine predictability
• Mechanisms of variability
• Role of oceans
• Adequacy of observing system
• Initialization
• Drought
• (Building pan-WCRP links)
• (Complete CMIP5)

• Intraseasonal and Seasonal Predictability and
  Prediction

• Monsoons
• ISV/MJO
• (Building pan-WCRP and WWRP links)
• (Complete CHFP)

12
CLIVAR Imperatives

• Anthropogenic Climate Change
• Decadal Variability, Predictability and
  Prediction
• Intraseasonal and Seasonal Predictability and
  Prediction

• Improved Atmosphere and Ocean Components of ESMs

• Analysis and Evaluation
• Climate Process Teams (process studies)
• (Building links pan-WCRP, IGBP)
• (Complete CORE)

• Data Synthesis and Analysis

• Ocean
• Coupled Data Assimilation Systems

• Ocean Observing System

• Development and System Design
• (Building IGBP links for Carbon,
  Biogeochemistry, Ecosystems)

• Capacity Building

13
WCRP Community-Wide Consultation on Model
Evaluation and Improvement
To - NWP and Seasonal Forecasting Centers -
World Climate Modeling Centers - WGCM and
associated MIPs (PMIP, CFMIP, C4MIP, etc) -
CLIVAR modeling groups (WGOMD, WGSIP) - CLIVAR
regional and monsoon panels - US CLIVAR panels
and working groups, CPTs - WCRP Task force on
Regional Climate Downscaling - WCRP Projects
(CLIC, SPARC, GEWEX) - THORPEX, WWRP -
IGBP/AIMES From Sandrine Bony, Gerald Meehl,
Anna Pirani (WGCM), Christian Jakob, Martin
Miller (WGNE), Ben Kirtman (WGSIP), Stephen
Griffies (WGOMD), Tony Busalacchi (WCRP)
14
WCRP Community-Wide Consultation on Model
Evaluation and Improvement

• Bottom-up survey on the key deficiencies of
  climate and NWP models.
• 6 Questions
• solicit input from the process
  study/observational/field campaign community (eg
  VOCALS, SPICE, TACE...etc), CMIP3 analysts and
  the modeling centers.
• Input for WGCM and WGNE, community resource
  website and a White Paper.
• Defining priorities for new opportunities (new
  observations or new field campaigns or new
  related ideas) and develop the next generation of
  models.