Program Assumptions

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Program Assumptions Theory

• National American Indian/Alaska Native HIV/AIDS
  Technical Assistance Center
• October 17, 2002 Norman, Oklahoma

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Evaluation Questions

• Most center on a theme of
• Is whats supposed to be happening actually
  happening?
• Are the intended target populations being
  reached?
• Are the services adequately delivered?
• Are the goals being met?

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• Therefore,
• Evaluators need to determine in detail what is
  supposed to be happening in a program

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Conceptual models

• Evaluators/program staff need to construct a
  representation called
• Conceptual model or theoretical model
• Identifies
• Expectations
• Connections assumed between activities and
  outcomes (social benefits)

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Program theory

• DEFINITION
• A set of assumptions about the relationships
  between the strategy and tactics the program has
  adopted and the social benefits it is expected to
  produce

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• Use program theory to
• Formulate prioritize evaluation questions
• Design evaluation research
• Interpret evaluation findings

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Overview of Program Theory
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Model components

• Impact theory represents the product of
  program-target transactions
• Impact theory is the core essence of a public
  health or social welfare program
• If assumptions are faulty, or not well
  operationalized, then desired outcomes will not
  be achieved

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Three components of Program Theory
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Program Impact Theory

• Identifies a set of assumptions of how change
  happens
• Represents causal theory
• Cause and effect sequence of events
• Chronological sequence
• May consist of two or more steps

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Program outcomes

• Every event after the intervention is an outcome
• The most direct outcomes are proximal
  (intermediate)
• Ultimate outcomes are distal outcomes
• Distal outcomes can not be achieved without first
  achieving proximal outcomes
• Thus, assess proximal outcomes even if they are
  not of interest to you

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Examples of Impact Theories
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Program assumptions

• Program interventions link to proximal outcomes
  is expression of an
• ACTION HYPOTHESIS
• Programs assumed belief that proximal outcomes
  will lead to distal outcomes is an expression of
  a
• CONCEPTUAL HYPOTHESIS

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Action Conceptual Hypothesis
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example
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Unachieved outcomes

• Sometimes, desired outcomes are not achieved
• Distinguish (in the program theory) if this
  results from
• IMPLEMENTATION FAILURE
• THEORY FAILURE

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Program Service Utilization Plan

• Sequence of events for clients
• From the clients perspective
• Tells of the clients experiences
• Depicted as a flowchart
• Tracks various paths that clients can follow
• Examines how clients enter leave
• May assign numbers to service units

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Example of Service Utilization Flow Chart
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Program Organizational Plan

• Expressed from the program administrator
  perspective
• Identifies functions/activities with
• human, financial, and physical resources
• Contains inputs, activities, outputs

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Operational Schematic Example
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Logic Model Example
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Articulating Program Theory

• Program theory must be articulated before it is
  evaluated
• Rarely is program theory articulatedit becomes
  an important preliminary task of the evaluator
• The evaluator discovers, not invents
• Most difficult separating implicit from explicit
  program components

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