Limpopo%20Basin%20Impact%20Pathways%20Workshop

1
Limpopo Basin Impact Pathways Workshop

• 15 17 November 2007
• Birchwood Hotel, Johannesburg
• Boru Douthwaite, CPWF Impact Project
• CIAT, Cali, Colombia

2
Impact Pathways Matter
3
Why make Impact Pathways explicit?

• People plan and implement projects (programs,
  countries ) on the basis of their change models
  - their implicit theories about how the world
  works, i.e., impact pathways
• If you can improve the impact pathways (IPs) you
  can improve the practice, making impact more
  likely
• IPs show a projects rationale and networks
• Help communicate what the project is doing
• More fundable
• Help with planning, including MTPs
• Provide a basis for evaluation
• Starting point for evaluation is a good model of
  what you think will happen
• Provide information to support programmatic
  integration
• Provides impact hypotheses for ex-post impact
  assessment

4
PIPA makes Impact Pathways explicit It does so
by developing two perspectives .

1. A problem tree that shows a linear logic linking
   project outputs to project goal and
2. Network maps that show the evolving relationships
   necessary to achieve the goal

5
Impact pathways a more complete picture.
Problem Tree
Network maps
6
Foundations

• Adaptation of concepts from Program Evaluation
• Renger and Titcomb (2002) problem trees
• Chen (2005) program theory
• Mayne (2004) - performance stories
• Innovation histories
• Douthwaite and Ashby, 2005
• Social network analysis
• Cross and Parker, 2004

7
Workshop Road Map
8
Outputs produced after the workshop
9
Use of PIPA Outputs
Use of PIPA outputs PIPA outputs used
Ex-ante impact assessment Essential Impact logic model, output targets, impact narrative Optional Extrapolation domain analysis, scenario analysis
Impact Pathways Analysis Essential Outcomes logic model, output targets and milestones, vision Optional Impact logic model
Laying the foundation for ex-post impact assessment Essential Outcomes and impact logic models Optional Impact pathways analysis (that updates project impact hypotheses) Extrapolation domain analysis
10
Expectations
11
Causal analysis / Problem tree
12
Refining and presenting your problem tree
Exercise 1

• Adapt or develop anew your project problem tree
  for presentation (PowerPoint or cards)
• If cards, writing one problem per card
• Use one color for problems the project will
  address
• Use another for other problems
• Modify, and add as you see fit
• But dont go into too much detail
• Well present the problem trees together with
  project visions in plenary

13
Example of a Problem Tree developed during an IP
workshop
14
Main problem to Goal
Determinants to Products
Problems to Outcomes
PN 34 Improved Fisheries Management Problem and
Outcome Trees
15
Deriving Products/ Outputs from the Problem Tree
Exercise 2

• The determinants are the problems the project is
  directly addressing with its outputs
• Hint the use of the output solves the
  determinant
• Identify, write on cards and add to the problem
  tree the outputs, showing which determinants they
  correspond to

16
Example from Ground Water Governance (PN42)
17
Some definitions

• Activity what were doing inside the project
• Hold IP Workshop
• Outputs what we produce that other people make
  use of, that solve the determinant
• Improved rice variety priority setting
  publication
• Determinant determinants are the problems the
  project is directly addressing with its outputs
• Next users people and organizations who
  directly use the outputs
• End users the people and organizations that the
  next users work with. Often the end users are
  the ultimate beneficiaries (e.g., resource-poor
  farmers), but not always.
• Politically-important actors people and
  organizations whose support is needed for project
  success
• Outcomes usually the results of the use of
  outputs by others (often come in chains)
• Promotion of rice variety by extension system
• Adoption of rice variety by farmers
• Higher rice yields
• Higher income
• More children sent to school

18
Level of influence of a project -change
3 years
10 - 30 years
19
Scaling Out and Scaling Up

• Scaling up - an institutional expansion, from
  adopters and their grassroots organizations to
  policy makers, donors, development institutions
• Scaling out - spread of a project outputs (i.e.,
  a new technology, a new strategy, etc.) from
  farmer to farmer, community to community, within
  the same stakeholder groups

20
Develop a vision of project success 2 years after
the end of the project
Exercise 3

• Take 5 minutes to individually answer the
  question, then develop common project vision by
  filling out Worksheet 1
• You wake up 2 years after your project has
  finished. Your project has been a success and is
  well on its way to achieving its goal. Describe
  what this success looks like to a journalist
• What was the situation like before the project
  started (hint look at the problem tree)
• What were the unmet needs and requirements of
  next users and end users?
• What are the next users now doing differently?
• How are project outputs disseminating (scaling
  out)?
• What political support is nurturing this spread
  (scaling up)?
• What are the end users doing differently?
• What are the benefits they are enjoying as a
  result of the project?

Keep it realistic
21
Impact pathways a more complete picture.
Causal Analysis
Network maps
22
Workshop Road Map
23
What is a network?
A network is a collection of people and / or
things that are connected to each other by some
kind of relationship

• Many kinds of entities can be part of a network
  people, projects, organisations, documents,
  events, cities, countries, etc.
• Each of these entities can have different levels
  of influence in the network, and
• And there are many kinds of relationships that
  can link such entities, involving transmission or
  exchange of information, money, goods, affection,
  influence, infection, etc.

24
Advantages of network models

• Actor-oriented descriptions
• observable, understandable, verifiable
• Captures real-life complexity
• We are subject to multiple influences
• We influence many others
• Network models help us understand innovation
  processes
• Innovation processes happen through different
  actors, acting in networks
• These interactions, relationships and influence
  are modeled in network maps

25
(No Transcript)
26
Airline network
27
Road Network
28
(No Transcript)
29
How change happens
Orlikowski and Hofman, 1997
Improvements in poverty alleviation, food
security and the state of natural resources
result from dynamic, interactive, non-linear, and
generally uncertain processes of innovation.
EIARD, 2003
30
A network diagram
(organisations linked by a project)
Influence pathway actor relationship actor
relationship
31
A plotted network diagram, multiple relations
The human eye is an analytic tool of remarkable
power, and eyeballing pictures of networks is an
excellent way to gain an understanding of their
structure. (The structure and function of
complex networks, M. E. J. Newman)
32
A plotted network diagram, one type of relation
33
Network tasks..

• Identify relevant actors
• Develop network diagrams of key relationships
  (research, funding, scaling out and scaling up)
  for
• Your project now
• Residual network 2 years after project has
  finished
• Identify key levels of influence
• Develop a scaling influence strategy (Worksheet
  2)

34
Identify key actors

• Who are the actors involved in research, funding,
  scaling out and scaling up in the area your
  project is working in?
• Can be positions (eg. DDG-R) or organizations
• Remember actors at different scales
  community/local, your own organization, regional,
  national, international

35
Some types of actors
Government Organization National Agricultural
Research and Extension Organization (NAREO)
CGIAR Centre University Ultimate
Beneficiary NGO Research Organization Private
Sector Donor Other (please specify)
36
Exercise 4a
Fill out an actor table (Table 1)
ACRONYM FULL NAME LOCATION TYPE OF ORGANIZATION ROLE
IRRI Int. Rice Research Institute Los Baños, Philippines CG Centre Project implementer
MOFA Ministry of Fisheries and Agric. Accra, Ghana GO Politically-important actor
FGs Farmers Groups Northern Ghana Ult. beneficiary End user
PhilRice Philippine Rice Research Institute Muños, Philippines NAREO Next user
DfID Dept. for Int. Development London, England Govnt. Org Funding agency
DDG-R Deputy Director General of Research CIAT, Cali CG Centre Scaling-out actor
37
Develop a network diagram for your project now
Exercise 4b

• Actors
• Use cards for nodes
• Use different colour cards for different types of
  node
• yellow project implementers, blue next user,
  green end user, red politically-important
  actor, red with black dot donor
• Relationships
• Use arrows to describe direction
• Use colour to describe relationship type
• Green funding brown research / work red
  scaling out black scaling up
• Dont use distance/length

38
(No Transcript)
39
Identify influence levels and attitudes in the
networks
Exercise 4c

• Actors
• Construct influence towers (0-3 chips) for key
  actors
• Indicate their attitude towards your project
• positive ?
• neutral ?
• negative ?

40
(No Transcript)
41
Develop a future network corresponding to the
vision
Exercise 5

• Draw a second network showing how actors need to
  be linked to achieve the vision
• Adjust the influence and attitude
• Will the attitude of the actor remain the same or
  change?
• Will the same actors still be equally
  influential?
• Will there be new influential actors in the area?

42
Developing a Scaling Strategy (Table 2)
Exercise 6a
Describe the most important differences between the two networks Why is the change important to achieve the vision? What are the projects strategies for achieving the change?
   
   
     
   


43
Network Changes Achieved since the beginning of
the project (Table 2)
Exercise 6b
Describe the most important network and influence changes since the beginning of the project Why was the change important? What were the projects strategies (e.g., co-development of knowledge and technology, communication, political lobbying, etc.) for achieving these changes?


44
Workshop Road Map
45
Developing the Outcomes Logic Model (a
description of the projects impact pathways)

• Why (Dart, 2005)?
• To evaluate or clarify the logic of the project
  intervention
• To provide a framework to evaluate the
  performance of a project
• Before, during and after
• Evaluation can provide information to improve
  decision making and enhance learning

46
Outcomes Logic Model (fill one table for all
stakeholder groups)
Exercise 7
Actor (or group of actors who are expected to change in the same way) Change in Practice required to achieve the Projects Vision Change in KAS required to support this change Project strategies to bring about these changes in KAS and Practice?


KAS Knowledge, Attitudes and Skills
47
Identify Outcome Targets (prioritize changes
from Outcomes Logic Model)
Exercise 8
The key outcomes the project wishes to monitor Assumptions SMART outcome target Means of verification? By whom? How?


SMART Specific, Measurable, Attributable,
Realistic, Timebound
48
Identifying Milestones
Exercise 9
SMART Outcome Target SMART Milestone to be achieved in the next six months Means of Verification? By whom? In what form? Who is responsible for making the progress described?


49
Where we are now
50
Impact Pathways Evaluation
51
The process
52
Workshop Road Map
53
Use of PIPA Outputs
Use of PIPA outputs PIPA outputs used
Ex-ante impact assessment Essential Impact logic model, output targets, impact narrative Optional Extrapolation domain analysis, scenario analysis
Impact Pathways Analysis Essential Outcomes logic model, outcome targets and milestones, vision Optional Impact logic model
Laying the foundation for ex-post impact assessment Essential Outcomes logic model and impact logic model Optional Impact pathways analysis (that updates project impact hypotheses) Extrapolation domain analysis
Program network maps Essential Now and future network maps
54
Impact Logic Model for the Strategic Innovations
in Dryland Farming (SIDF) Project
55
Says little about who does what .an
actor-orientated perspective is missing
56
provided by network mapping
57
.. as part of an impact narrative
58
Methodologies used for evaluating impact potential
Anticipated
Scenario analysis
Extrapolation domain analysis
Uncertainty of impact
Exploring possibilities
Participatory Impact Pathways Analysis
Secured
Scope of impact
Local, close-to-project
Basin-scale, global
59
Link between regions through bio-physical
similarities
60
But socio-economic condition also critical
61
EDA method
Project origin
Looking for pixels with similar climate (and soil)
Looking for pixels with similar socio-economic
(land use factors)
62
Extrapolation domain of aerobic rice in Asia
63
Areas that hold promise for adoption of aerobic
rice
64
EDA Summary

• Method in development
• Represents what what is believed, on basis of
• Current experience
• Available global data
• Beware false prophets, BUT
• a rapid first step in exploratory dialogue with
  new stakeholders

65
Info needed for Extrapolation Domain Analysis
Exercise 10
What is the main change that your project is contributing to that is likely to scale-out and scale-up? Who will adopt?
What are the factors likely to influence scaling-out and scaling-up?
Where are your pilot sites in which the change is starting to happen?
66
Volta Research network
67
Next Steps

• Participants finish worksheets and send to
  BFP-Impact Project (end of Nov)
• IP writes workshop report (end of Nov)
• IP send draft impact narratives to projects (end
  of Jan)
• Participants respond to queries (end of Feb)
• IP write first draft of Limpopo Basin Impact
  Pathways Working Paper (end of March)