Our Changing Climate

1
How is Californias climate changing and what
are the projections in this century?
2
Higher Temperature Precipitation Forecasts Mixed
3
Higher Temperatures and Health Impacts
Significant increase in the number of days
conducive to ground level ozone formation
Over 100 days possible with temperatures gt90 deg
F. by end of century
4
But Dont Extreme Cold Days Have a Similar Impact
on Mortality?
No. They appear to have very different impacts.
Researchers at the Harvard School of Public
Health analyzed climate data and mortality
records for the 6.5 million deaths that occurred
in 50 U.S. cities from 1989 to 2000.
During Cold Snaps Death Rates Increased by
1.59 During Heat Waves Death Rates Increased by
5.74
We seem better able to handle cold weather.
Source Mercedes Medina-Ramón and Joel Schwartz
Temperature, Temperature Extremes, and Mortality
A Study of Acclimatization and Effect
Modification in 50 United States Cities
Occupational and Environmental Medicine.
Published Online 28 June 2007.
5
Other Impacts on California Water Resources

• Water Resources Significant reduction Sierra
  Nevada spring snow pack forecasted (70 to 90 in
  high emissions scenario half that in lower
  emission scenario)
• California population expected to increase from
  35 million to 55 million by 2050 water resources
  nearly fully utilized already
• By end of the century, late spring stream flow
  could diminish by up to 30 agriculture
  particularly hard hit.
• Potential reduction in hydropower (currently
  15 of electricity generation)

6
Other Impacts on California Agriculture

• California produces 50 of all US fruits and
  vegetables Increasing temperatures can increase
  plant growth (to a point) but can also diminish
  the quality of the produce.
• Industries likely to be impacted
• Wine Grapes
• Fruits and Nuts
• Milk Production

• Warmer temperatures can increase crop damaging
  pests and pathogens
• Water availability challenges

7
Why is it important that we act now to reduce our
greenhouse gas emissions?
8
The U.S. emits about 6.4 billion metric tons of
greenhouse gases annually, 25 of the worlds
total.
6.4 billion metric tons CO2/yr
These greenhouse gases last a long time
Carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere for
approximately 100 years, methane lasts about 12
years. Other greenhouse gases last even longer.
Warming begets more warming
As these gases continue to raise surface
temperatures, they trigger the release of even
greater quantities of carbon dioxide and methane
that are currently trapped in frozen Arctic
permafrost and tundra soils, further increasing
temperatures.
A feedback mechanism ensues
potentially causing runaway global warming.
9
There is a concern among scientists that we may
only have 10 to 20 years to significantly reduce
our emissions of greenhouse gases or we could
reach a tipping point where it will be too late
to slow global warming.
10
This Map Made a Lasting Impression
Year 2095 Temperature Changes
(Temperature changes from the 1961-1990 average)
What could I do to slow climate change? I did a
lot of reading
11
Households are Big Contributors to Climate Change

• Of all U.S. greenhouse gas emissions come from
  households
• Vehicles
• Home Heating
• Electricity

40
12
So how can each of us slow global warming now?
13
Reduce our consumption of fossil fuels

• Because greenhouse gas emissions are tied very
  closely to our energy consumption, using less
  fossil fuel based energy puts fewer greenhouse
  gases into the atmosphere.
• This will help slow global warming.

Mountaintop removal for coal mining near Rawl,
West Virginia. 50 of electricity in the United
States is produced from coal.
(photo Kent Kessinger)
14
There are many ways we can use less energy

• We can drive smaller, more fuel efficient cars
  and use cars less often

36 MPG 6,500 pounds
CO2 per year
23 MPG 10,200 pounds
CO2 per year
13 MPG 18,059 pounds
CO2 per year
(Estimates based on US average of 12,000
miles/year)
15

• We can make some simple substitutions

Replacing just 1 incandescent light bulb with 1
compact florescent bulb saves about 150 pounds of
carbon dioxide per year!
If every American household replaced just 5
high-use incandescent bulbs with compact
florescent lights we'd collectively save more
than 8 billion each year in energy costs and we
would prevent the greenhouse gases equivalent to
the emissions from nearly 10 million cars.
Source http//www.energystar.gov
16
Look for the Energy Star

• In 2004 Americans using Energy Star products
• Avoided Emissions 20 million cars
• Energy Saved 24 million homes
• Saved 10 billion dollars

Source http//www.energystar.gov
17

• 5 things that require tons of energy and can
  produce tons of carbon dioxide
• Vehicles
• Heating Systems
• Clothes Dryers
• Dehumidifiers
• Refrigerators/Freezers

A typical dehumidifier costs 275/yr to operate
and produces 2000 pounds of carbon dioxide per
year.
Prioritize energy efficiency in these items!
18
Stop the Snacking!

• Some appliances and electronic devices are never
  truly off they continue to draw electricity
  even when they arent being used.
• Stop them from snacking on your electricity and
  wasting your money!
• Use a UL power strip and turn the power strip
  off when not in use.

Note
Some electronics can use up to 30 of their
electricity requirements even when they are OFF
19
Small changes really add up
Replace your old refrigerator with a new Energy
Star Annual savings 90 700 pounds
CO2
Set your thermostat down a few degrees in the
winter Annual savings 135 1400 pounds
CO2
Drive JUST 10 fewer miles per week Annual
savings 80 520 pounds CO2
Reduce your garbage by 10 through greater
recycling or reduced packaging Annual savings
1200 pounds CO2
Wash clothes in cold water only Annual savings
70 500 pounds CO2
Caulk and weather-strip around doors and
windows Annual savings 80 650 pounds
CO2
These are mid-range estimates from published
sources your savings may vary.
20
More household ideas
Use a Clothesline Electric dryers use tons of
energy and produce tons of CO2!
Consider replacing your vehicle with a more fuel
efficient car (10 MPG higher). Save 4300 pounds
of CO2 and 660 per year.
Shop Locally!
21
Put your kids on the bus rather than drive them
to school
Youll save 3600 pounds of CO2 per year and 540
a year. The school bus it takes our children
away and returns them safely several hours later.
WE LOVE IT!
(Estimate based on 20 miles/day for 180 school
days)
22
Use Biodiesel put your oil furnace or boiler on
a carbon diet
Use biodiesel (bioheat B5) a mixture of 95 2
fuel oil and 5 biofuels (soybean based).
Requires no retrofitting of existing equipment.
Expected to have ASTM approval by Fall,
2007 Reduces CO2 emissions by 708 pounds per
year.
Soybeans
Assumes 800 gallons fuel oil used per year. 4
reduction in CO2 for B5
23
We are promoting these and other residential
actions that can be taken to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions through the NH Carbon
Challenge. The Challenge is for all 476,000
households in NH to reduce their CO2 emissions by
10,000 pounds per year.
24
And after you take the Carbon Challenge you can
tell everyone
25
Our take-home message
Each of us must take steps to protect our Earth's
climate.
26
Summarizing my carbon reductions since 2005
70 CFL Bulbs 10,500 pounds
CO2/yr Driving 780 fewer miles(15 miles/week) a
year 500 pounds CO2/yr Reduced oil
consumptionby 200 gallons/year (morewood heat)
4,000 pounds
CO2/yr Lowered thermostat a few degrees in
winter 1,000 pounds CO2/yr Switched to
cold water when washing clothes 500
pounds CO2/yr ___________________________________
_____ TOTAL REDUCTION 16,500 pounds
CO2/yr
And Im saving OVER 250 on my electric bill
annually!
29 less
27
Climate Change Stabilization Requires Action at
all Scales

• Individual many actions are possible

• Municipal 620 US cities representing over 67
  million Americans have signed the US Mayors
  Climate Protection Agreement pledging emissions
  reductions

28
Action From the States
States with Greenhouse Gas Inventories
States with Climate Change Action Plans
California is Leading the Way!
29
States with Renewable Portfolio Standards
Regional Agreements
30
Businesses Understand that Using Energy More
Efficiently Reduces Costs and Greenhouse Gas
Emissions
I am convinced that it is prudent to take action
now to address what we do know (about climate
change). James E. Rogers, CEO Cinergy
31
EVERYONE
Climate change stabilization requires action from

While individuals Municipalities States
Regional entities and many other countries
are taking action
32
This has been our federal governments climate
change policy
New Hampshire residents got tired of waiting
33
182
..we placed on the ballots in towns
throughout NH a resolution calling for federal
and local action on climate change.
And what was the response from New Hampshire?
34
Loud and Clear!
towns endorsed the resolution! (90)
towns did not endorse the resolution (7)
towns tabled the resolution (3)
164
13
5
35
New Hampshire Climate Change Resolution

• To see if the town will go on record in
  support of effective actions by the President and
  the Congress to address the issue of climate
  change which is increasingly harmful to the
  environment and economy of New Hampshire and to
  the future well being of the people of
  ____________.
• These actions include
• Establishment of a national program requiring
  reductions of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions while
  protecting the U.S. economy.
• 2. Creation of a major national research
  initiative to foster rapid development of
  sustainable energy technologies thereby
  stimulating new jobs and investment.
• In addition, the town of __________
  encourages New Hampshire citizens to work for
  emission reductions within their communities, and
  we ask our Selectmen to consider the appointment
  of a voluntary energy committee to recommend
  local steps to save energy and reduce emissions.

www.carboncoalition.org
36
With our first-in-the-nation primary, New
Hampshire residents can impact the tone and
issues of the next Presidential election.
Lets make sure the Presidential candidates
understand we want ACTION on climate change!
37
We are Already Seeing the Effects
38
What About the Naysayers???
To those people who insist that we cant reduce
our greenhouse gas emissions because our economy
is simply too fossil fuel based and renewable
energies cant meet our energy demand Ive
got this question
39
What have we ever created, developed, invented,
engineered, and patented that ever began with the
assumption that This will NEVER work. This
just CANT be done.
40
Do you think this happened?
Wilbur Wow, this flying thing is WAY harder
than I thought. Orville Yeah, lets just
quit.
41
If we take an historical perspective
we have met major environmental challenges in the
past
25 yearsago
20 years ago
40 years ago
Now
OZONEDESTRUCTION
CLIMATE CHANGE
SMOG
ACID RAIN
Solution catalytic converter(US invention)
Solution Montreal Protocol CFC phaseout (US key
participant)
Solution a market-based cap and trade system
for regulating utility SO2 emissions (US creation)
Solution households, industry,
governmentworking together

• Smog reduced by one-third to one-half
• CFCs all but eliminated, ozone layer appears to
  be (slowly) rebounding
• Acid rain emissions cut by a third forests
  rebounding

Since then
In all of these cases, reductions in pollutants
were much cheaper and occurred much faster than
anticipated! We CAN meet the challenge and reduce
the risk of climate change!
42
Using Current Technologies We Can Significantly
Reduce Our Emissions Giving Us Breathing Room
to Transition to a (Hydrogen?) Fueled World
3
2.6
2.5
2
1.8
GtC
1.5
1
0.9
0.5
0
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
Source Pacala and Socolow, 2004
43

• The United States is well positioned to create
  many of the technologies and products needed to
  transition to a low carbon energy world.
• Technologies are particularly needed in China
  and India.
• New jobs and new industries will be created

We just need to get going!
www.ecogeek.org
44
In Conclusion
Its up to us
How our climate changes in this century really
depends on us. The energy choices we make today
will largely determine the climate we have
tomorrow.
Roger Stephenson photo
45
The choice is ours.
46
Thank-you!
http//carbonchallenge.sr.unh.edu
47
References Slide 4 Average Temperature on
Earth without Greenhouse Gases. Source Vital
Climate Graphics http//www.vitalgraphics.net/cli
mate2.cfm?pageID6 Slide 9 Oceans and Climate
Change. Source The Oceanic Sink for
Anthropogenic CO2 Science Science 16 July 2004
http//www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/30
5/5682/367 and NASA Facts The Roles of the
Ocean in Climate Change http//earthobservatory.n
asa.gov/Newsroom/MediaResources/Roles_Ocean.pdf
Slide 10 Thermohaline Circulation. Source NASA
Facts The Roles of the Ocean in Climate Change
http//earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/MediaRe
sources/Roles_Ocean.pdf Slides 12 Ice core
image from An Inconvenient Truth. p. 65 Slides
13-16 EPICA Ice Core. Source An Inconvenient
Truth. pp. 66-67. Slide 17 Keeling Curve.
Source NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostic
Laboratory (CMDL) Slide 18 CH4 and N2O since
Industrial Revolution. Source IPCC
http//www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics/2001syr/large/
02.01.jpg Slide 20 Temperature Changes in 1995.
Source NCAR Community Climate System Model,
version 3 (CCSM3) Data available through
EOS-WEBSTER http//www.eos-webster.sr.unh.edu Slid
e 22 Human Population. Source An Inconvenient
Truth. pp. 216-217. Slide 23 Carbon Dioxide
Projections. Vital Climate Graphics. Source
http//www.vitalgraphics.net/graphic.cfm?filename
climate2/large/14.jpg Slide 24 Temperature
Change Projections for 2100. NCAR Community
Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) Data
available through EOS-WEBSTER http//www.eos-webs
ter.sr.unh.edu Slide 27 Climate Impacts. Vital
Climate Graphics http//www.grida.no/climate/vital
/20.htm Slides 28-29 Arctic Climate Impact
Assessment. 2004. Impacts of a Warming Arctic
http//amap.no/acia/ Slide 31 Source An
Inconvenient Truth. P. 145 Slides 32-34 Weiss and
Overpeck University of ArizonaSlides 35-36 San
Francisco Bay Conservation and Development
Commission http//www.bcdc.ca.gov/index.php?cat5
6
48
Slide 37 Al Gore, An Inconvenient Truth. pp.
108-109 Slide 38 Al Gore, An Inconvenient
Truth. pp. 116 Slide 39 Al Gore, An Inconvenient
Truth. pp. 120 Slide 40 Al Gore, An Inconvenient
Truth. pp. 156-157 Slide 42 Union of Concerned
Scientists, Global Warming in New Hampshire Slide
43-46 Northeastern Climate Impact Assessment,
The Changing Northeast Climate Slides 51-52 and
Slides 53-54 California Climate Change Center
Our Changing Climate Assessing the Risks to
California Slide 63 Carbon Dioxide from
Vehicles. Toyota Corolla, Camry, and Land Cruiser
MPG estimates from http//www.fueleconomy.gov/ Sli
des 77-79 Pew Center on Global Climate Change
http//www.pewclimate.org Slide 89 Image from
the North Carolina Division of Archives and
History Slide 90 Some Convenient Truths.
Atlantic Monthly (September, 2006) Slide 91 S.
Pacala and R. Socolow. Stabilization Wedges
Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years
with Current Technologies Science (August 13,
2004 Vol. 305)
Special thanks to Dr. Steve Frolking, Dr. Rob
Braswell, and Dr. Annette Schloss for reviewing
this presentation and making numerous helpful
suggestions.
July 27, 2007