Benefits of the full ECMWF product set at a commercial weather provider dr' Wim van den Berg, meteor

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Benefits of the full ECMWF product set at a
commercial weather providerdr. Wim van den
Berg, meteorological research department

• ECMWF Users Meeting
• June 15, 2006

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Overview

• Summary of current use of ECMWF Model data
• Fields from the Deterministic and other Models
• Applications of the Deterministic and other
  Models
• Applications of data from MARS archive
• Recommendations

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Summary of current use of ECMWF Model data

• Changes in use of ECMWF fields since maximum
  license fee
• worldwide original gaussian fields
• 00 and 12 utc runs (MOS12 and MOS00)
• early delivery system (MOS12 in evening)
• 1.2.2006 high resolution and 3h fields (3 ...
  72)
• Current flow and use of ECMWF data
• 70-80 GB/day
• processed and interpolated - near real time
  except for EPS - to a resolution of
  (0,25-)0,4-0,5-1,0(-1,5) degrees depending on
  customer and application needs
• ECMWF model data is seen as our basic (most
  reliable) forecasting tool, but for comparison
  and multimodel approach we also use
  UKMO-GFS-HiRLAM data.
• ECMWF model data and its derived products are
  used throughout the Meteo Consult Group
  (Netherlands, UK, Germany, Belgium and other).

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Quality of ECMWF temperature forecasts
(USA)based on dec.2005 verification of
(Multimodel) MOS
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Fields from the Deterministic and other Models (1)

• Fields from the Deterministic Model (reduced
  gaussian 0,225 degrees)
• 00 and 12 utc runs, incl 06 and 18 utc analysis
  fields
• 3h (3h) 72h (6h) 240h full globe
• surface (17 elements)
• pressure levels 1000-200 hPa (8 elements)
• model levels 91-82 (boundary layer, 4 elements)
• 30-35 GB/day
• Fields from the Ensemble Prediction System
  (reduced gaussian 0,45 degrees)
• 00 and 12 utc runs, 501 members
• 6 (6h) 240h full globe
• surface (11 elements)
• pressure levels 850-925-500 hPa (1-2 elements)
• 35 GB/day

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Fields from the Deterministic and other Models (2)

• Fields from the Ocean Wave Model (0,25 degrees)
• 3h (3h) 72h (6h) 240h full globe
• surface (10 elements)
• 2 GB/day
• Fields from the Ensemble Prediction System Ocean
  Waves (1,5?1,0 degrees)
• 00 and 12 utc runs, 501 members
• 12 (12h) 240h full globe
• surface (6 elements)
• 1 GB/day

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Fields from the Deterministic and other Models (3)

• Daily (and some weekly) products from the Monthly
  Forecasting System (reduced
• gaussian 1,125 degrees
• 501 members
• D5-D32 full globe
• surface (11 elements)
• pressure levels 500 hPa (1 element)
• 4 GB/week
• Daily products from the Seasonal Forecasting
  System (reduced gaussian 1,875 degrees)
• 40 members
• D1-D180 full globe
• surface (8 elements)
• pressure levels 925 and 500 hPa (1-2 elements)
• 4 GB/month
• Data from MARS archive (special projects)

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Applications of the Deterministic and other
Models (1)

• Fields from the Deterministic Model (reduced
  gaussian 0,225 degrees)
• interpolated to 0,4 (Europe-Atlantic-USA maps)
• interpolated to 1,0 (worldwide maps)
• Derived products with emphasis on (severe)
  weather warnings (in)stability parameters and
  weather codes
• Fields from the Ensemble Prediction System
  (reduced gaussian 0,45 degrees)
• interpolated to 0,4 (Europe-Atlantic-USA maps)
• interpolated to 1,0 (worldwide maps)
• Derived fields like 10 risk and averages
• Applications
• MCMOS2004, which will be replaced by Multimodel
  MOS 2006
• Special MOS forecasts (wind energy, road/rail
  conditions)
• Automatic fronts

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31 May, 2006 risk of snow at 1000m in the Alps
(background model orography) model derived WW
(fp 18) observed weather
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Risk of thunderstormsmodel derived WW and SFUK
observations
Left 17-05-2006 (fp 21) Right
21-05-2006 (fp 18)
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Forecast maps for pigeon flyers
Right wind at 70m (level 89)Left
significant clouds,model derived weather
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ECMWF EPS average maps for 7 June, 2006D8
forecast D2 forecast
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Multimodel MOS TX forecast for California(backgro
und direct model output MX2T6 and model
orography)
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Local ECMWF MOS wind (energy) forecast,compared
with direct model output (fp 15)
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Experiments with automatic fronts
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Applications of the Deterministic and other
Models (2)

• Fields from the Ocean Wave Model (0,25 degrees)
• Fields from the Ensemble Prediction System Ocean
  Waves (1,5?1,0 degrees)
• Derived fields like 10 risk and averages
• Application
• Nautical MeteoBase (multimodel approach with
  coupled wind-wave algorithms)

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ECMWF EPS risk areas(compared with direct model
output of surface pressure and 10FG6)
Left 10 highest gusts (kts) 8-06-2006 (fp
78) vrf. 58 kts and 7m! Right prob.
sign. sea/swell gt 2.5m 8-06-2006 (fp 78)
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Nautical meteoBase and EPS (sign. sea/swell)
analysis 4-5m!
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Applications of the Deterministic and other
Models (3)

• Daily (and some weekly) products from the Monthly
  Forecasting System (reduced gaussian 1,125
  degrees
• Daily products from the Seasonal Forecasting
  System (reduced gaussian 1,875 degrees)
• Application
• Development of weekly/monthly tendency forecasts
  for energy and agriculture.

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ECMWF EPS Monthly Forecast daily T2m (March
2006 cold, and May 2006 warm/cool)
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Applications of data from MARS archive

• research projects and hindcast studies
  (downscaled ERA40 wind to detect discontinuities
  and trends in local wind speed observations)
• consultancies (MM5 studies)
• extension and updating of MOS system
• other statistical post processing (downscaling of
  model fields to customer specified grids)

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Downscaling to arable land (JRC CGMS
System)case TX 1-07-2003, Oper.Model 0,4 left
and Seasonal Model 1,875 right
interpolation
CGMS 25x25km terrain
statistical interpolation
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Simulated effect of projected harbour extension
in Dubai (MM5 27?9?3?1km runs with ECMWF
boundaries)
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Recommendations

• Emphasis on early delivery of 00utc products
  (most customers need their updates in the morning
  before 09 lt (07 utc in summer)
• MARS products and ECMWF Catalogue similar
• Hindcast or reforecast data available for at
  least 1 year soon after a major change in model
  (resolution, levels) to enable quick MOS
  adjustments
• Web access to non-Grib data and experimental
  products like EFI charts and Tropical Cyclone
  Tracks