Assimilative Capacity Studies

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Assimilative Capacity Studies
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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• December 16, 2004 - AGENDA
• Welcome and Introductions
• Assimilative Capacity Studies Background
• Terms of Reference
• Timing and Funding
• Workplan
• Communications Plan
• Questions and Answers
• Next Steps

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Assimilative Capacity Studies
Bruce Singbush Manager, Community Planning
Development Ministry of Municipal Affairs and
Housing
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Defining a Path ForwardRecommended
inter-governmental action plan for south Simcoe
County
Assimilative Capacity Studies

• December 16, 2004

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This presentation addresses four matters
Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Simcoe County in a Central Ontario context
• Development opportunities and challenges in South
  Simcoe
• On-going provincial and municipal long-range
  planning initiatives
• A proposed inter-governmental action plan for
  south Simcoe County

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Simcoe, including the separated cities, is
expected to accommodate substantial population
growth
Assimilative Capacity Studies
1. Source Population, Households Employment
Forecasts Update, Simcoe County, Final Report,
May 2004, Hemson Consulting Ltd.
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South Simcoe is facing major growth pressures
Assimilative Capacity Studies
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The Province is committed to building Strong
Communities
Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Multiple, interconnected initiatives are
  underway, such as
• Planning Reform
• Watershed-based Source Protection Planning
• Places to Grow A Growth Plan for the Greater
  Golden Horseshoe
• Golden Horseshoe Greenbelt
• 10-year infrastructure plan
• Growing Strong Rural Communities

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Future Growth Areas, which require further
assessment, include Barrie
Assimilative Capacity Studies
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While some local studies in South Simcoe are
on-going, such as
Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Lake Simcoe Environmental Management Strategy
  (LSEMS)
• Simcoe County Growth Management Study
• Individual sewer and water Class EAs

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The Province is concerned about
Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Assimilative capacity of the Nottawasaga and Lake
  Simcoe watersheds
• The gap between decisions on land use planning
  and the approval of needed infrastructure
• Long-term administrative and financial capacity
  of municipalities
• Additional urban expansions being approved

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The Province wants to further its common
interests with municipalities in
Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Protecting the environment, including the water
  quality and quantity of the Nottawasaga and Lake
  Simcoe watersheds.
• Fiscally sustainable growth, through efficient,
  cost-effective development and land use patterns.
• Effective municipal governance, through
  inter-municipal cooperation and coordination.

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Desired outcomes of action are to
Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Define the growth capacity of the Lake Simcoe and
  Nottawasaga River watersheds.
• Provide development (servicing) certainty for
  intensification and approved growth.
• Define Barrie and areas capacity for additional
  growth.
• Ensure effective and sustainable municipal
  governance.

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Four inter-governmental partnership principles -
structure
Assimilative Capacity Studies
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Work program Base requirements
Assimilative Capacity Studies

• The work plan will be scoped to identify cross
  municipal issues and to provide a coordinated
  approach.
• Existing information, resources and processes
  will be used.
• Phases will be completed in parallel, whenever
  possible.
• All deliverables will be completed no later than
  July, 2006.
• Oversight committee and inter-governmental review
  team will provide updates and/or direction prior
  to the conclusion of each phase and deliverable.
• Public involvement will occur in each phase.

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Work program overview
Assimilative Capacity Studies
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Next Steps
Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Council resolutions of support
• For working together
• For the action plan
• Establish committees
• Initiate action plan components

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Assimilative Capacity Studies
Claude LaFrance Manager Technical Support
Section Ministry of the Environment
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Assimilative Capacity Studies
Phase 1 Assess the Watersheds

• Concern for development pressures and cumulative
  impacts on Lake Simcoe and Nottawasaga River
• Studies to be done on a watershed basis
• LSEMS accelerated and Nottawasaga in development
• All water uses to be protected, including
  protection of drinking water sources

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Assimilative Capacity Studies
Provincial Support for Source Protection

• October 14, 2004, the government announced 1.5
  million funding for two Source Protection studies
  in the Lake Simcoe and Nottawasaga River
  watersheds.
• On November 17, 2004, Ministers of the
  Environment and Natural Resources announced 12.5
  million in funding towards source protection
  planning.

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Assimilative Capacity Studies
Source protection will protect sources of
drinking water from potential contamination and
depletion

• Source protection plans are proposed to be
  developed on a watershed basis to protect all
  drinking water sources in Ontarios.
• The proposed planning process will identify
  threats to sources of drinking water and ensure
  measures are put in place to mitigate threats to
  drinking water sources.
• Implementation is anticipated to focus on early
  delivery of priority components to mitigate
  immediate threats to drinking water.
• Priority components could include well head
  protection zones intake protection strategies
  aquifer protection and water budgets.

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Assimilative Capacity Studies
Lake Simcoe

• Scientific evidence indicates that the Lake
  Simcoe watershed is under stress and no longer
  supports a self-sustaining cold water fishery
• Three Provincial ministries, Lake Simcoe Regional
  Conservation Authority and municipal partners
  involvement in the Lake Simcoe Environmental
  Management Strategy (LSEMS)
• Lake Simcoe is the source of drinking water for 5
  communities
• A watershed plan for L. Simcoe will address both
  the stress on aquatic environment and source
  water protection

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Assimilative Capacity Studies
Nottawasaga River

• Nottawasaga River watershed is also under stress.
• The river is a significant coldwater fishery.
• MOEs policy allows no further degradation of
  this watercourse and all practical efforts must
  be made to restore its status.

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Assimilative Capacity Studies
Approach
An assimilative capacity study will be completed
first and will be used to assess impacts of
development so that a watershed plan can be
prepared.

• Lake Simcoe
• Accelerate LSEMS to complete the assimilative
  capacity study Terms of Reference have been
  finalized
• Nottawasaga River
• MOE has led the preparation of Terms of
  References for the assimilative capacity studies
  for the Nottawasaga River Watershed
• Lake Simcoe Region and Nottawasaga River
  Conservation Authorities have partnered to
  undertake the assimilative capacity studies

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Assimilative Capacity Studies
Scope of Studies

• Funding provincial government approved 1.5
  million
• Timing Completion within one year

• Geographic extent The watersheds of Lake Simcoe
  and the Nottawasaga River

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Assimilative Capacity Studies
Desired Outcomes

• Comprehensive assessment of the capacity of the
  watersheds to assimilate the impacts from
  approved and future growth.
• An understanding of growth capacity.
• Land use planning models that determine
  relationship between water quality and land uses.
• Projecting impacts from specific growth scenarios
  
• A common scientific framework to address
  infrastructure master plans, Class EAs and growth
  planning.

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Assimilative Capacity Studies
Mike Walters Director Watershed Management
Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority
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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Assimilative Capacity is defined as
• the capability of the watercourse and/or lake to
  resist the effects of landscape disturbance
  without impairment of water quality

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Background
• MOE requested the development of a TOR for both
  Lake Simcoe and Nottawasaga River
• Studies are pieces of an overall program being
  developed by the Province
• Growth pressures significant in south Simcoe
• Studies providing the direct linkage between land
  use and water quality

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Assimilative Capacity Studies
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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Study Purpose Lake Simcoe
• Assess the assimilative capacity of the lake and
  watercourses within the Lake Simcoe basin.
• Produce an assimilative capacity model to predict
  the impacts of land use change on water quality
• Accelerates components of the Lake Simcoe
  Watershed Plan LSEMS Phase III

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Study Purpose Nottawasaga River
• Assess the assimilative capacity of the
  Nottawasaga River watershed and the its mixing
  zone at the confluence with Nottawasaga Bay
• Produce an assimilative capacity model to predict
  the impacts of land use change on water quality

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Study Scope
• Very focused scope of work
• Goal of collecting information to develop and run
  assimilative capacity models
• Reliance on existing data is critical
• Key data gaps to be identified and filled ASAP

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Lake Simcoe Data Gaps
• Current point source data (STPs, Holland Marsh
  Polder pump-off)
• Characterization of stream water use (ie.
  What is stream used for?)
• Water quality/quantity data for every
  subwatershed
• Benthic community information for all
  subwatersheds

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Nottawasaga River Data Gaps
• 100 coverage for watershed of detailed land use
  and vegetation type
• Characterization of stream water use (ie.
  What is stream used for?)
• No existing information on Nottawasaga River/Bay
  mixing zone
• Water quality/quantity data for every subwatershed

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Key Common Deliverables
• Spatial, relational water quality database for
  each study area
• Inventory/definition of water use for the
  watersheds and tributaries
• Analysis of aquatic community (emphasis on
  benthic community) relating to land use
• Defendable quantitative water quality/quantity
  model
• Model outputs predicting water quality conditions
  under various growth scenarios (provided by MMAH)

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Lake Simcoe Specific Deliverables
• Update to the existing Lake Simcoe water quality
  models for phosphorus
• Includes revisions, updates and expansion to the
  existing empirical model
• Development of a new mechanistic model
• Results will be used to refine LSEMS water
  quality management objectives

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Nottawasaga River Specific Deliverables
• Mixing zone model for the Nottawasaga Bay area
  where the Nottawasaga River enters the bay
• Difficult to predict mixing zone area at this
  time will be determined by model exercise
• Results from mixing zone model may require
  minor expansion of watershed modeling area to
  include Collingwood locale

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Model(s) Tool(s)
• The models are intended to be tools to
• Improve land use planning decisions at
  provincial, municipal and local levels
• Assist in decision making/review of proposed
  projects and undertakings in respect to various
  legislative and/or municipal req's. (ie. EAs)
• Provide direction for stewardship activities
• Predict impacts/benefits and assist in monitoring

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Study Delivery
• Lead agency is the LSRCA with partnership and
  assistance from the NVCA
• Provincial ministries involved include MMAH, MOE
  and MNR
• Two committee governance structure with Steering
  and Technical Committees being shared

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Assimilative Capacity Studies
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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Communications Working Group
• Utilize existing structure of the LSEMS group
• Add additional staff from NVCA, Midhurst MNR,
  Southwest MOE, and others
• Consultant will be retained to develop and assist
  in the implementation of a Communications Plan
  for the overall study

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Peer Review Committee
• Reports through the Technical Committee
• Consist of recognized academics and specialists
  in the various disciplines
• Explore membership of Special Interest Groups
  such as UDI, OFA, etc.
• Focus on this committee is to evaluate and
  enhance process/models to ensure defendability of
  models/tools

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Timing CRITICAL
• Must be completed within year timeframe
• Start Date Now
• End Date
• Draft final reports due to the Steering Committee
  and Ministries on November 30/05
• MOU expires December 31/05

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Funding
• 100 funding from Province
• 1,000,000 for Lake Simcoe Studies
• 500,000 for Nottawasaga River Studies
• MOU between LSRCA and MOE
• All consultant contracts will be between the
  LSRCA and the consultant

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Assimilative Capacity Studies
Rob Baldwin Manager Watershed Science Lake
Simcoe Region Conservation Authority
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Watershed Model Process
Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Lake Simcoe
• Nottawasaga River

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Assimilative Capacity Studies
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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Problem Identification
• Characterize the general water quality issues in
  both study areas
• Draft list of indicators/pollutants to be for
  each area
• Data gaps that exist
• Report outlining water quality issues, inventory
  of key sources and draft list of indicators

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Develop Numeric Qualitative Targets
• Select indicators at a facilitated workshop with
  broad representation
• Establish numeric targets for selected indicators
  (ie. TMDLs, PWQOs)
• Establish qualitative targets (ie.fish community,
  benthic community)
• Establish water uses for tributaries in both
  study areas

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Develop Numeric Qualitative Targets Contd
• Apply selected targets to individual
  subwatersheds/catchments
• Reports for each area outlining the indicators,
  targets, selection process, etc.
• GIS map layers depicting the water use
  designation and relative targets

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• TMDLs Total Maximum Daily Loads
• Developed by US EPA
• Quantified measure of the total daily load for a
  parameter
• Sum of all loading sources point, non-point and
  natural background
• Are developed based on the existing conditions
  and watersheds capacity
• Used as a tool in guiding growth management,
  monitoring

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Source Assessment - Modeling
• Detailed inventory/assessment of nutrient sources
• Requires detailed land use/vegetation mapping
• Key activity is detailed computer water quality
  modeling - CANWET

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• CANWET Canadian ArcView Nutrient Water
  Evaluation Tool
• Phase II Pilot project Provincial Investment
• Devp in partnership with the NVCA
• Already one watershed in each area is completed
• Undergoing final peer review at the University of
  Guelph
• US version used to develop TMDLs

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• CANWET Contd.
• Will be used to predict daily/monthly/yearly
  loads for selected parameters
• Will assist in developing TMDLs
• Will develop the baseline or existing
  conditions for each subwatershed
• Primarily tool to be used in evaluating various
  development/land use scenarios

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Source Assessment Deliverables
• Reports outlining sources of nutrients/contaminant
  s in both areas
• Calibrated CANWET models for each area
• Full documentation on model devp, data sources,
  data gaps, etc

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Link Targets and Sources
• Linking the water quality targets with the
  identified sources
• Document cause-and-effect relationships
• Use QUAL2K - enhanced stream water quality model
• Used to route pollutants/nutrients as they
  travel through the system (ie. travel times)
• Provides and an understanding of how
  pollutants/nutrients are assimilated and/or
  discharged to the receiving waterbody (ie. Lake
  Simcoe)

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Link Targets and Sources Deliverables
• Calibrated QUAL2K models for both study areas
  linked to CANWET
• Reports for both study areas with the results for
  the linked modeling analysis
• GIS based layers depicting the information by
  catchment

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Load Allocation Reduction
• Determining the load allocations or define
  acceptable loading (with safety margins)
• Final determination of TMDLs for
  catchment/subwatershed areas
• TMDLs developed in respect to standards,
• Load allocation/reduction analysis
• Load limit for each catchment/watershed

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Load Allocation Reduction Deliverables
• Reports for each study area outlining the
  process, approach and description on development
  of loads
• GIS layers illustrating load information for each
  catchment/subwatershed
• Facilitated workshops/open houses to assist in
  establishing loads

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Implementation Plan
• Analysis of growth/land use change (scenarios
  provided by Province)
• Analysis of BMPs (present and future)
• Development of monitoring plan
• Pollutant/nutrient loading reduction strategies
• Process to revise/adapt TMDLs

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Implementation Plan Deliverables
• Implementation plans for each study area
• Pollutant/nutrient loading reduction strategies
• Analysis of growth scenarios
• Monitoring program recommendations
• Milestones for achieving water quality objectives
• All digital GIS information

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Lake Model Process
Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Lake Simcoe
• Nottawasaga Bay

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Assimilative Capacity Studies
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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Lake and Mixing Zone Model
• Two distinct differences
• Lake Simcoe is confined large lake
• Nottawasaga Bay is part of larger Georgian Bay
  and Lake Huron
• Different models applied for each
• Lake Simcoe 2 models applied empirical and
  mechanistic
• Nottawasaga Bay mixing zone model

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Problem Identification
• General characterization of the water quality
  issues for Lake Simcoe and Nottawasaga Bay
• Nutrient loading, bacteria, macrophytes, etc.
• Develop general linkages between receiving
  waterbody and tributaries

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Problem Identification
• Report outlining Lake Simcoe and Nottawasaga Bay
  water quality issues and concerns
• Identification of relationships and linkages
  between uses, sources and tributaries
• Inventory of sources contributing as well as a
  determination of whether nutrients being released
  from their bottom waters/sediments

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Develop Numeric Qualitative Targets
• Lake Simcoe
• Empirical model will be updated to include recent
  data by MOE
• Consultant will be retained to develop a
  new/updated mechanistic model
• Determine annual P loads
• Consider other parameters

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Develop Numeric Qualitative Targets
• Nottawasaga Bay
• Consultant will present mixing zone models to
  Technical Committee for selection
• Mixing zone model will be completed
• Various parameters (ie. P, bacteria) can be
  modeled in mixing zone
• Determination of extent of mixing zone to be
  confirmed
• Determine targets for various parameters

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Deliverables
• Individual lake and mixing zone models for
  respective areas
• Reports outling the process, steps for models and
  target setting
• Digital GIS layers outlining information
• P load estimates for Lake Simcoe

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Assimilative Capacity Studies

• Monitoring Reporting
• Consultant will develop and recommend a
  monitoring plan for Lake Simcoe and Nottawasaga
  Bay
• Development of a reporting framework
• Establish milestones for water quality/use
  improvement
• Individual monitoring plans for Lake Simcoe and
  Nottawasaga Bay

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Assimilative Capacity Studies
Brian Kemp Manager Corporate Communications
Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority
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Assimilative Capacity Studies
Development Implementation of Communications
Plan

• Project Context
• building further awareness about the Assimilative
  Capacity Studies
• Scope of Work
• Project Evaluation
• Deliverables
• Staff Support

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Assimilative Capacity Studies
Questions and Answers Next Steps