Adaptive Monitoring

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Adaptive Monitoring Watershed Condition
Assessments
Aquatic-Riparian Effectiveness Monitoring Program
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Monitoring Goal Evaluate the success of the Plan
Old-Growth Forest and Species
Watersheds and Aquatic Ecosystems
Sustainable Resources and Rural Communities
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Monitoring Goal Evaluate the success of the Plan
Old-Growth Forest and Species
Watersheds and Aquatic Ecosystems
Sustainable Resources and Rural Communities
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?? Watershed Condition ??
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Streams
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Roads
Vegetation
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Watershed condition monitoring

• 250 randomly selected watersheds
• Minimum of 25 federal ownership
• 50 watersheds sampled per year on 5-year rotation

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Watershed condition
Vegetation
Roads
In-channel
Riparian
Upslope
Density
Crossings
Physical
Chemical
Biological
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Changes in condition scores( of watersheds)n
250
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Why did condition change?

• vegetation growth
• ()
• road decommissioning
• ()
• wildfire
• (--)

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Decision Support Model Lessons Learned

• Decision support models are an effective tool for
  integrating different data types.
• Process is well documented and results are
  repeatable.
• Its easy to understand.
• Models can be updated to reflect current thinking.

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Decision Support Model Lessons Learned

• Decision support models can be applied to any
  spatial or temporal scale.
• Incomplete datasets are the norm and can be
  evaluated with decision support models.
• The model structure influences the sensitivity of
  the model to change.

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New Direction from Executives

• 1 monitoring question whats status and trend
  of watershed condition?
• Are management practices effective at maintaining
  and improving watershed condition?
• Monitoring must also be able to provide short
  term answers.

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Provide feedback to managers

• Identify conditions that dictate a change in
  management.
• Need to establish targets and thresholds.

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New Direction from Executives

• Evaluate watershed condition at different spatial
  scales.

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Lessons learned be forward looking

• Were not there yet
• Great hockey players skate to where the puck is
  going to be.
• We need to be anticipating the questions that
  will be asked in 5 10 years.
• Ask questions that wont be affected by
  political plans and turnover in executive
  personnel.

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Implementation monitoring

• We knew where roads were decommissioned, but not
  when.
• We werent able to track thinnings.
• No corporate database for fires.
• Poor tracking of restoration projects.

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New Direction from Executives
Look for cost savings Share data with state
federal agencies

• Common protocols
• Use a probabilistic sample design
• Common GIS layers

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Working with state agencies to standardize
protocols
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Align westside and eastside monitoring programs
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Watershed condition based on roads vegetation
(on federal lands)
Olympic Peninsula
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Watershed condition based on roads vegetation
(on federal lands)
sub sample of watersheds
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Watershed condition based on roads vegetation
(on federal lands)
sub sample of watersheds
all watersheds
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What GIS/remote sensing data are available?
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Interagency stream layer 2006
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Interagency Vegetation Map (Wall-to-wall
vegetation data)

• Tree size distributions
• Species composition
• Snag and log densities
• Forest and non-forest
• Periodically updated

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Oregon Transportation Framework Project

• BLM is a partner in developing GIS layers
• US Forest Service is not an active partner
• Following a national set of standards.
• Will make data available.
• Unclear how Oregon road layer will be updated.

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1 meter resolution aerial photography
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In-channel characteristics Green LIDAR
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Field data is needed

• To develop upslope/riparian and in-channel
  attribute relationships.
• To ensure that model results reflect
  on-the-ground conditions.

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Watershed condition
Vegetation
Roads
In-channel
Riparian
Upslope
Density
Crossings
Physical
Chemical
Biological
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Watershed condition
Vegetation
Roads
In-channel
Riparian
Upslope
Density
Crossings
Physical
Chemical
Biological
landslides
fire condition
fish passage
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Scientific credibility

• Expect controversial results
• Expect to end up in court
• Peer review is essential

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Lets review the lessons

• Poor management history
• Need to link implementation effectiveness
  monitoring
• Establish targets and thresholds
• Keep your executives in the loop
• Scientific credibility is essential
• Adaptable monitoring
• Share your results!

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www.reo.gov/monitoring/10yr-report/
Become knowledgeable about the findings!!
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Questions?
www.reo.gov/monitoring

• Old growth maps
• Vegetation change info
• Decision support models and attribute evaluation
  curves