MREE at CP: Model to Execution

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MREE at CP Model to Execution

• Ray Elphick
• Director, Product Design

Oliver Wyman, Princeton October 22nd and 23rd
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Everything is what it is because it got that way
(DW Thompson)

• MREE use at CP
• Link to Production Systems
• Resulting trajectory that link has placed CP
  on.
• CPs Design Plan Execute linkage

MREE
Design
VISTA
Trip Plan
Plan
TYES
Inventory/Train Build
Execute
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Subject

• MREE use at CP
• The model will be pushed to
• Deal with the complexity of bulk traffic
• an option to run in manifest service
• vs. an option to run in unit service
• Simulate network capacity and be closer to real
  time demand
• Align local train (industrial switching design)
  with road train capacity needs
• Strategic roll-up

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Message and discussion approach

• The decision to link MR design to CPs
  production systems has motivated rich and
  continuous feedback
• It was a good decision The challenge is in
  having design ever closer to the real warts of
  execution
• Discussion outline
• Situation
• Insight into how close CP design, therefore, MREE
  is presently to execution
• Response
• Development underway to get closer to execution
  and maintain the tools bench strength in
  modeling design

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The context of all design is Network
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CP context
North American Context Too?
LOCAL or INDUSTRIAL
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175
BULK
CARLOAD IMS
550

• Accomplishment to-date is significant

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A.) Pure bulk designed outside model

• Pure Bulk - Unit train - defined
• Point to point
• Solid train set
• Load or unload lt 24 hours
• Power On

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Some bulk can flow unit and manifest
Traffic originations can exceed a unit train
start on any given day. The decision to dwell
excess traffic for the next unit train is often
NOT the low cost answer!
Max train length
20
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20
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100 car unit train
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Manifest
Day 1
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4
Day 5
Day 6
Day 7
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2.9
MREE Distribution/day
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Real world example
Execution reality By O/D, volume will consume a
variable amount of train capacity on any given
day. Bulk lot sizes and release patterns, can be
a challenge to incorporate into a manifest or
carload train model.
Statistically lt 1 car a week to 10 cars/day per
day
6 Grain O/Ds
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B.) Maximize train utility (CDI and Capacitated
Simulation)
Not good enough, at diesel prices of C3.00 per
Gallon, to just leave buffer space on trains
for peak flow days

• CDI Communicate Design Intent to Execution
• Real world blocking guidance on
• Expected length Visibility to operations will
  yield improved feedback to design
• Rules around priorities to help guide field
  decision making

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CDI - Communicate Design Intent
Bridging to the execution world with rules.
Max train length
20
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100 car unit train
X
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Manifest

• CDI is real-world blocking guidance. Example
• Given the current volume in blue, dont add bulk
  block should first protect room for downstream
  lift

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Capacitated Simulation

• Capacitated Simulation
• Modify the simulation to use the CDI inputs on
  block lengths, block priorities and even maximum
  train lengths, to have an output which will more
  accurately simulate car to block to train
  movement.
• Remember The goal is to manipulate the design
  parameters till desired operating targets are met
  without exceeding real network capabilities.
• Other benefits to the CDI/Capacitated Simulation
  strategies
• 1.) Experienced railroaders are retiring
  (demographics)
• 2.) New world designers are gamers
• 3.) Precursor to more sophisticated network
  planning tools

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C.) Local or Industrial volume to road volume
Main Track
Local/Industrial
Main Yard
Main Track

• Age old manufacturing problem from a systems
  perspective
• Try to align two different production speeds when
  connecting a local network to a road network

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Details, details, details
Local Shipment life cycle
Load/ Unload/ Release
Local to Main Yard
Arrive Main Yard
Depart Main Yard
Depart Local
Road
Road

• Improvement plan
• Leverage the capacity of MREE and add more
  precise connection detail between road and local
  designs.
• I think though, that the MREE tool could have
  more reports which help us to understand, in a
  network context, what is the right balance point
  between car velocity and train production costs.
  Reports which span local and road designs.
• I have this hunch that we need more insight
  (translate reports) into levers and outputs but
  I am interested to hear how others are tackling
  this question at a costing level.

1.5
Order for Placement (ORPL)
AVPL 1.0d
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D.) Strategic Roll Up (antidote to detail)
With getting closer to execution, how do you see
the forest among the trees?
Roll-up to Rebase Design
Present Capabilities
Capability Expansion
Execution
Multi Year
3 Months

• Find a way to scrub all the detail, without
  losing the detail.

PLANNING HORIZON
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In Closing
CP goal is to get to one model for the network
CARLOAD IMS BULK LOCAL

• CPs decision to link to production systems was a
  good one. It placed us on a trajectory were
  still following.
• MREE is a tool which I believe can be pushed to
  deal with all of the network levers and many of
  the real-world execution challenges.

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Discussion
Questions Answers