Updates on the Chinese Energy Sector and on the China LEAP Modeling Effort

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Updates on the Chinese Energy Sector and on the
China LEAP Modeling Effort

• Yanjia Wang, Alun Gu, Aling Zhang
• EETC, Tsinghua University, China
• 4th Asia Energy Security Workshop
• 6-7 November 2006, Beijing, China

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Part A Update on the Chinese Energy Sector

• Yanjia Wang

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Where Does Chinas Energy Go?

• Basic facts in 2005
• Primary energy production 2.063 billion tce, 10
  higher than previous year
• Total energy consumption 2.225 billion tce,
  9.47 higher than 2004
• Coal consumption 2.14 billion ton, 11.4 higher
• Power installed capacity 517.18GW, 16.9 higher
• Power generated 2,497.5TWh, 13.82 higher
• Crude oil consumption 3300 million ton, 13.8
  higher
• Crud oil import (net) 119 million ton, 1.4
  higher
• Petroleum import (net) 143.6 million ton, 5.2
  less
• Elasticity of energy production consumption
  0.96
• Elasticity of electricity production 1.24
• Elasticity of electricity consumption 1.22

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Where Does Chinas Energy Go?

• Macro control effected, but still a long way to
  go

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Coal Plays Dominate Role Continuously
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Power Industry
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1972-2004 New Constructed Power Plant (104 kW)
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ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN CHINA
???
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Renewable Energy Law Effected on Jan. 1st 2006

• NDRC issued a document for pricing renewable
  energy for power generation on Jan. 4th 2006.
• Biomass for power tariff coal-fired tariff
  (including deSOx) 0.25yuan/kWh for 15 years
• Wind power tendering price and lowest bidders
  price
• PV, geothermal, wave.. project based approval
  price

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20 Energy Efficiency Target

• National 11th Five-Year Plan(2006-2010) Energy
  intensity of GDP will decrease about 20 within 5
  years.
• Give a quantified target on energy efficiency for
  the first time in five-year plans
• Divide total target to provincial, large
  industrial group, city, large energy consumers
  target to implement.

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Tremendous Efforts Must be Made on Energy
Efficiency Improvement
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Three Gorge Hydropower Fully Operate for the
First Time

• 14700MW generators fully operate on Oct. 18 2006
• 14700MW generators commissioned on Sept. 2005
• The first generator commissioned on July 2003
• 26700MW generators will commission by the end of
  2008
• Sluice will reach designed level-- 156 meter
• Water level before 156 meter (bottom) (taken on
  Aug. 8th 2006)
• Water level reached 154.24 meter (top) (taken on
  Oct. 22, 2006)

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40GW Nuclear Power by 2020
Weihai, 195MW Domestic Gas cooling
reactor, Another two plants in Rongchen, Hai Yang
are under planning
Hongheyan 2GW, 2011 finished
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Operated Nuclear Power Plant List
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Qinshan I
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Qinshan II
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Qinshan III
China Vice Primary Minister and Canadian Primary
Minister attend the creamery of Qinshan III
commissioned
2700 MW US2.88 billion
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Daya Bay
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Location of Nuclear Power Plants in Asia
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Part BChina LEAP Modeling Effort
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Basic assumptions

• Base year 2000 (2005)
• Target year 2030
• Dataset AES2005
• LEAP2006 (slow calculation)
• Three scenarios BAU, NAP,RAP
• Check inputs and outputs of base year (finish)
• GDP adjustment in 2004

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The construction of new socialist countryside in
China

• Narrow the widening gap between rural and urban Ch
  ina
• Improve agricultural production, living standards
  and public administration in the rural areas
• Rural facilities will be improved
• Rural consumption structure will be changed

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Wind power industry update

• Wind power installed capacity in 2005 1.26GW,
  increment 0.498 GW (39)
• Localization of 70
• Initial investment 7500-8500 yuan/kW
• In 2020, wind power installed capacity 30GW
  (finish)

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CDM projects in China

• CDM projects will decrease the operation cost in
  power industry in China (doing)
• Emission factor in China about 0.8
  kgCO2e/kWh(coal-fired)
• CERs (Certified emission reductions) US
  10/tCO2e
• Emission reduction benefits 0.064yuan/kWh
• Average electricity tariff 0.309 yuan/kWh

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Nuclear power scenarios in China
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Nuclear
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Adjustment
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Ongoing

• Transport sector (substitute fuel development)
• Renewable energy development in China renewable
  energy power plants
• ......

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Thank you!

• gal_at_tsinghua.edu.cn