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Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project

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Produce a long-term vision for future flood and coastal risks ... fields, drains. channels. flood storage. flood defences. floodplains. Receptors. communities ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project


1
Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project
  • Government Office for Science
  • Department for Innovation, Universities and
    Skills
  • Overview by
  • Colin Thorne
  • University of Nottingham
  • colin.thorne_at_nottingham.ac.uk
  • on behalf of the Foresight Team

2
  • Overview
  • Project aims
  • Methodology
  • River, Coastal and Intra-urban Drivers
  • Predicting Future Risks (baseline case)
  • Responses Structural and nonstructural measures
  • Costs and Affordability of Responses
  • Final Messages and Further Information

3
June 2007
4
July 2007
5
Foresight Project Aims
  • Produce a long-term vision for future flood and
    coastal risks and their management in the UK.
  • Cover all aspects of flood coastal erosion risk
    for the whole UK, looking 30 100 years ahead.
  • Provide a reliable evidence-base for decision
    makers, using expert knowledge and high level
    flood and erosion risk analyses.
  • Supply the underpinning science for
    national-level policy making.

6
  • Methodology

7
The flooding system
8
Foresight Futures 2020
9
Foresight Futures 2020 UKCIP2002 climate
change scenarios
10
  • .

11
  • Flood Risk Drivers
  • Deep Description and Qualitative Analysis

12
  • Future Flood Risks
  • Drivers of River and Coastal Flooding

13
Drivers of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk
any phenomenon that changes the state of the
flooding system
14
  • Baseline ranking of river and coastal drivers
  • Socio-economic drivers
  • Coastal drivers
  • Precipitation
  • Big scenario differences

15
  • Major uncertainties
  • Sea level rise
  • Coastal morphology
  • Surges
  • Precipitation
  • Stakeholder behaviour
  • Public AttitudesExpectations

16
Future Flood Risks Drivers of intra-urban
flooding
  • The catchment and coastal risk analysis
    treated urban areas as receptor units
    containing people, property and infrastructure.
  • Another set of sources and flood pathways at
    local scales operates within urban areas due to
    extremely intense rainfall and/or congested
    drainage (sewer) flooding - termed intra-urban
    flooding.

17
Drivers in urban areas
  • Plus
  • Stakeholder behaviour
  • Urban planning policy

18
  • Ranking of intra-urban scale drivers
  • Social impacts
  • Asset deterioration
  • Intense Precipitation
  • Environmental management and regulation

19
  • Quantitative Analysis of Future Flood and Coastal
    Erosion Risks
  • (Baseline Case)

20
Modeling National quantitative risk
analysis Risk Assessment for Strategic Planning
Data used Rivers and coastlines Floodplain
mapping Standard of protection Condition of
defences Addresses of all properties/people at
risk Flood damage by depth Social
vulnerability Agricultural land grade
21
Calculating future flood risk
22
Dominant Floodplain Class (2002)
23
Flood Risk Predictions for 2050 and 2080
24
Expected annual damages millions (currently
1billion)
25
  • Baseline Conclusions unless we act-
  • Future flooding and coastal erosion are very
    serious threats to the UK.
  • They represent a major challenge to government
    and society.
  • Combining the World Markets and Low emissions
    scenarios reduces future expected annual economic
    damages by only 25.

26
ResponsesOptions for managing future flood and
coastal erosion riskssustainably
27
Potential Responses
80 individual responses
Organised into 25 response groups
  • And 5 response themes
  • Reducing urban runoff
  • Reducing rural runoff
  • Managing flood events
  • Managing flood losses
  • Engineering and large scale re-alignment or
    abandonment

28
Deep Response Descriptions
  • Definition, Function and Efficacy
  • Governance
  • Sustainability
  • Costs
  • Interactions
  • Case example
  • Emerging issues
  • Uncertainty
  • Potential for implementation under
    each of the four Foresight future scenarios

29
Responses with the most potential for risk
reductions
  • Structural Important, but need to rethink
    Coastal Defences
  • Non-structural We can manage down flood
    erosion losses

30
How much will it cost are responses affordable?
  • The cost of implementing engineering- based
    structural approach alone to achieve the
    indicative standard of defence in the 2080s is
    52 billion
  • The cost of using structural defences as part of
    an integrated portfolio of structural and
    non-structural responses is 22 billion

31
Delivering the message
  • First level Briefing notes for elected
    officials
  • Second level Technical reports, papers and book
  • Third level Working documents and project
    record
  • Fourth level Video game for practitioners and
    students

32
Flood Ranger Video Game
33
  • Final Messages
  • Future flood and coastal erosion risks are likely
    to increase due to climate, economic, social and
    planning drivers if we go on as we are.
  • We can make it easier or harder for ourselves by
    our actions on global emissions and governance.
  • There are feasible and sustainable responses that
    can hold risk at present day levels affordably -
    if implemented through Integrated Flood Risk
    Management.
  • But we must act now in developing new policies to
    allow non-structural measures to be effective in
    time.

34
Closing Statement
Have confidence UK Foresight proves it is
possible to develop a long-term vision for
IFRM. Politicians will listen and act provided
that your messages are clear and are properly
supported by the best science and engineering
analyses available.
35
Further Information
  • Flood Foresight
  • www.foresight.gov.uk
  • Follow links for flood and coastal defence
  • UK Research Consortium on Flood Risk Management
  • www.floodrisk.org.uk

36
Over to the Break-out Groups!
  • Colin Thorne
  • University of Nottingham
  • colin.thorne_at_nottingham.ac.uk
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