Title: Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project
1Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project
- Government Office for Science
- Department for Innovation, Universities and
Skills - Overview by
- Colin Thorne
- University of Nottingham
- colin.thorne_at_nottingham.ac.uk
- on behalf of the Foresight Team
2- Overview
- Project aims
- Methodology
- River, Coastal and Intra-urban Drivers
- Predicting Future Risks (baseline case)
- Responses Structural and nonstructural measures
- Costs and Affordability of Responses
- Final Messages and Further Information
3June 2007
4July 2007
5Foresight Project Aims
- Produce a long-term vision for future flood and
coastal risks and their management in the UK. - Cover all aspects of flood coastal erosion risk
for the whole UK, looking 30 100 years ahead. - Provide a reliable evidence-base for decision
makers, using expert knowledge and high level
flood and erosion risk analyses. - Supply the underpinning science for
national-level policy making.
6 7The flooding system
8Foresight Futures 2020
9Foresight Futures 2020 UKCIP2002 climate
change scenarios
10 11- Flood Risk Drivers
- Deep Description and Qualitative Analysis
12- Future Flood Risks
- Drivers of River and Coastal Flooding
13Drivers of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk
any phenomenon that changes the state of the
flooding system
14- Baseline ranking of river and coastal drivers
- Socio-economic drivers
- Coastal drivers
- Precipitation
- Big scenario differences
15- Major uncertainties
- Sea level rise
- Coastal morphology
- Surges
- Precipitation
- Stakeholder behaviour
- Public AttitudesExpectations
16Future Flood Risks Drivers of intra-urban
flooding
- The catchment and coastal risk analysis
treated urban areas as receptor units
containing people, property and infrastructure.
- Another set of sources and flood pathways at
local scales operates within urban areas due to
extremely intense rainfall and/or congested
drainage (sewer) flooding - termed intra-urban
flooding.
17Drivers in urban areas
- Plus
- Stakeholder behaviour
- Urban planning policy
18- Ranking of intra-urban scale drivers
- Social impacts
- Asset deterioration
- Intense Precipitation
- Environmental management and regulation
19- Quantitative Analysis of Future Flood and Coastal
Erosion Risks - (Baseline Case)
20Modeling National quantitative risk
analysis Risk Assessment for Strategic Planning
Data used Rivers and coastlines Floodplain
mapping Standard of protection Condition of
defences Addresses of all properties/people at
risk Flood damage by depth Social
vulnerability Agricultural land grade
21Calculating future flood risk
22Dominant Floodplain Class (2002)
23Flood Risk Predictions for 2050 and 2080
24Expected annual damages millions (currently
1billion)
25- Baseline Conclusions unless we act-
- Future flooding and coastal erosion are very
serious threats to the UK. - They represent a major challenge to government
and society. - Combining the World Markets and Low emissions
scenarios reduces future expected annual economic
damages by only 25.
26ResponsesOptions for managing future flood and
coastal erosion riskssustainably
27Potential Responses
80 individual responses
Organised into 25 response groups
- And 5 response themes
- Reducing urban runoff
- Reducing rural runoff
- Managing flood events
- Managing flood losses
- Engineering and large scale re-alignment or
abandonment
28Deep Response Descriptions
- Definition, Function and Efficacy
- Governance
- Sustainability
- Costs
- Interactions
- Case example
- Emerging issues
- Uncertainty
- Potential for implementation under
each of the four Foresight future scenarios
29Responses with the most potential for risk
reductions
- Structural Important, but need to rethink
Coastal Defences - Non-structural We can manage down flood
erosion losses
30How much will it cost are responses affordable?
- The cost of implementing engineering- based
structural approach alone to achieve the
indicative standard of defence in the 2080s is
52 billion - The cost of using structural defences as part of
an integrated portfolio of structural and
non-structural responses is 22 billion
31Delivering the message
- First level Briefing notes for elected
officials - Second level Technical reports, papers and book
- Third level Working documents and project
record - Fourth level Video game for practitioners and
students
32Flood Ranger Video Game
33- Final Messages
- Future flood and coastal erosion risks are likely
to increase due to climate, economic, social and
planning drivers if we go on as we are. - We can make it easier or harder for ourselves by
our actions on global emissions and governance. - There are feasible and sustainable responses that
can hold risk at present day levels affordably -
if implemented through Integrated Flood Risk
Management. - But we must act now in developing new policies to
allow non-structural measures to be effective in
time.
34Closing Statement
Have confidence UK Foresight proves it is
possible to develop a long-term vision for
IFRM. Politicians will listen and act provided
that your messages are clear and are properly
supported by the best science and engineering
analyses available.
35Further Information
- Flood Foresight
- www.foresight.gov.uk
- Follow links for flood and coastal defence
- UK Research Consortium on Flood Risk Management
- www.floodrisk.org.uk
36Over to the Break-out Groups!
- Colin Thorne
- University of Nottingham
- colin.thorne_at_nottingham.ac.uk