Azmat Hayat Khan

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Drought Monitoring Early Warning System in
Pakistan
Azmat Hayat Khan Pakistan Meteorological
Department E-mail pmd_at_pakmet.com.pk
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Structure of the talk
The Mandate...
The Project of Drought/Environment Monitoring and
Early Warning in Pakistan
Present Procedure
Present Drought Situation
The need of hour
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The Mandate...
The mandate for any activity is of prime
importance for effective implementation of
results. PMD shares the mandate at national level
to monitor and forecast drought related issues.
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The Project of Drought / Environment Monitoring
and Early Warning in Pakistan
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BRIEF HISTORY
Climate of Pakistan in its lower southern half is
arid and hyper-arid. Some regions of the country
in each season remain drastically dry and are
always vulnerable to drought. All the provinces
of Pakistan have a history of facing major
droughts in the past. Drought affects more
people than any other environmental hazard.
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BRIEF HISTORY
The responses to drought for the distressed
economic and social sectors, when ever such
situations arose, were taken on emergency and on
adhoc basis. Such reactions to crises often
resulted in the implementation of hastily
prepared assessment and response procedures that
lead to ineffective, poorly coordinated and
untimely responses.
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NEED FOR THE TIME
It was thus inevitable that, a monitoring and
early warning system, be developed on scientific
grounds.
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The National Drought Centre
A National Centre for Drought / Environment
Monitoring and Early Warning has been set-up in
Islamabad as part of PMD. It is federally funded
project and is established on permanent footings.
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The Objectives

• A national hub for collection, consideration and
  analysis of drought related data.
• Weekly drought monitor will be prepared and
  disseminated.
• Flourishing research activities on drought
  related issues.

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Drought Monitor

• Drought monitors will be prepared using
• SPI calculated from point rainfall data
• NDVI from remote sensing
• Water availability in reservoirs

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Drought Monitor (Cont)

• ETo data / P.D.I
• Soil Moisture data
• River Stream Flow Data
• Field reports.
• Sub-surface water situation

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The Data aquisition
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The Organization
Under the project of National Centre for Drought
/ Environment Monitoring and Early Warning in
Pakistan. Four Operational Centres one in each
province, will be established. Research Unit at
the centre.
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The Organization
Regional Centres will Collect Data from the
network stations in respective region. Coordinate
with the voluntary agencies operating the gauge
stations and help them in running the stations
smoothly. Store and process the data and
transmit it to the National Centre in the desired
format.
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Present Procedure For Drought Monitoring Early
Warning
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Drought Advisories

• Drought advisories are prepared using
• SPI calculated from point rainfall data
• Water availability in reserviors
• Soil Moisture data where available

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Drought Advisories (Cont..)

• ETo data
• River Stream Flow Data
• Field reports.

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• GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTANMINISTRY OF DEFENCE
  (DEFENCE DIVISION) PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL
  DEPARTMENT (Headquarters Office)Post Box No.
  1214, Sector H-8/2ISLAMABAD
•   Islamabad July 27, 2004
• Advisory Regarding Emerging Drought Conditions
•   So far Monsoon rains have remained deficient in
  most parts of the country especially in
  Balochistan, Sindh and Southern Punjab. This has
  started causing a considerable stress on
  available surface as well as underground water
  resources.
•   Water in almost all the reservoirs is at
  critical level. Deficient rainfall and retarded
  snowmelt due to low temperatures in catchment
  areas during June July have contributed to this
  worsening water situation in Dams especially in
  larger ones.
•   Close to normal rainfall is still expected
  during the remaining period of Monsoon i.e. upto
  15th of September, but the deficiency gap already
  created may appear difficult to be recovered.
•   All these things indicate emerging drought
  conditions especially in Balochistan and to some
  extent in Sindh and Southern Punjab. 
• This emerging situation demand well-coordinated
  efforts by all concerned authorities including
  the most judicious utilization of available water
  resources.

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Source Pakistan Meteorological Department
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Dam Level(Ft) during last Five Years at Tarbella
during August
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Drought Conditions at the end of August, 2004
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Links to other Organizations
Drought advisories/ early warnings are provided
to national and provincial authorities,
international donar agencies like UNDP, World
Bank, JICA. Information is also provided to NGOs
on their request. Advisories are also
disseminated through electronic media and PMD
website www.pakmet.com.pk
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Pakistan faces all types of droughts

• Meteorological - a measure of departure of
  precipitation from normal.
• Agricultural - refers to a situation when the
  amount of moisture in the soil no longer meets
  the needs of of a particular crop.
• Hydrological - occurs when surface and subsurface
  water supplies are below normal.
• Socioeconomic- refers to the situation that
  occurs when physical water shortage begins to
  affect people

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Difficulties in coping mechanism

• slow onset, creeping phenomenon
• absence of a precise, universal definition
• impacts are nonstructural and spread over large
  areas--makes assessment and response difficult
• mitigation interventions are less obvious
• impacts are complex and affect many people

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Need of the Hour
It is thus inevitable and need of the time that a
monitoring and early warning system, which could
be one of the major element of DROUGHT
MITIGATION be developed on scientific grounds on
regional basis.
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THANK YOU
Pakistan Meteorological Department