Vision 2050 The Change to a Sustainable Energy Path

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Vision 2050The Change to a Sustainable Energy
Path
By Gunnar Boye Olesen, Emil Bedi Ann
Vikkelsoe INFORSE-Europe Article on Vision 2050
at www.inforse.org International Network for
Sustainable Energy Europeis a network of 55
NGOs. INFORSE-Europe is supported by EU
Commission DG Environment, Danish Open Air
Council and others Sustainable Energy for Europe
INFORSE-Europe seminar Brussels 27-28
November 2002
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Vision 2050 - Background

• The world energy system
• is beyond the environmental limits
• does not provide basic energy needs as light and
  healthy cooking facilities to 2 billions of the
  worlds population
• To avoid dangerous climate change we must limit
  global warming to 1ºC in the 21st Century
• We should provide all with basic energy needs and
  allow developing countries to develop, including
  use of cheap energy supply

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Environmental Limit Climate Change

• To be sure to keep global warming below 1ºC
  century, we must limit global CO2 emissions to
  about 250 Gigaton of Carbon in 21st century 35
  years of current consumption (assumed climate
  sensitivity of 3.5ºC)
• The climate sensitivity is commonly accepted to
  be in the range of 2 to 5ºC with an average of
  3.5ºC.

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A Global Sustainable Scenario
1990-2000 64 GtC
After 2000 240 GtC
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Scenario Energy Services
Energy Services per capita
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Energy Demand

• Most energy consuming equipment will be replaced
  several times before 2050 new generations of
  equipment should maximize efficiency. Technology
  learning can drive prices down.
• One exception is houses. In EU houses could use
  only 1/7 of todays heat demand in 2050. This will
  require renovation/re-building of 2 p.a. / heat
  consumption 20-40 kWh/year per m2 
• For transport is expected increase in efficiency
  from todays 15-20 to 50, and re-gain of break
  energy. Hydrogen and fuel cells as solutions
  together with electrical driven vehicles.
• Energy service demand will increase, also in
  industrialized countries, energy demand decrease.

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Primary Energy (TWh/y)
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Energy Supply

• Wind Follow Windforce10 growth from todays
  20,000 MW to reach 3,000,000 MW in 2040, then
  maybe less afterwards
• Large wind power development programs are
  cost-effective extra costs today will be paid
  back with future cost reductions due to
  technology learning. Some sites give
  cost-effective electricity today.
•  Solar PV could reach 500 MWpeak in 2003, and
  then grow 25 pr. year
• Biomass and hydro Increase 30-50 in total
• Biomass can be used as transport fuel

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Renewable Energy Potential
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Electricity - Worldwide (TWh/y)
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Example Denmark
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Electricity Supply - Denmark
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Economy - DK scenario until 2030

• The low-energy scenario is 2 cheaper than the
  business-as-usual scenario with zero discount
  rate
• It is 1 more expensive with 5 discount rate
• If environmental costs are included or if fossil
  fuel prices increases more than estimated by IEA,
  the low-energy scenario is considerably cheaper
  than business as usual.
• expected lower growth in energy services need
  for decoupling of economy and energy services

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Example - Slovakia
OBS Preliminary data
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Slovakian Renewable Energy Potentials
OBS Preliminary data
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Energy Infrastructure

• Electricity grid still needed, as today
• Electricity grid needs more regulation with many
  decentralised production units intelligent grid
• Need for electricity storage to compensate wind
  PV, in Slovakia hydro pump-storage, in Denmark
  probably chemical storage after 2030
• New roles for electricity transport, heat pumps,
  international energy trade
• Nuclear phase-out 2010-2030 or earlier
• Because of large learning rates for the new
  technologies, minimal costs.

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More on Infrastructure

• decentralised power production, to use local
  renewables and to cover heat demand (CHP)
• more investments in demand-side efficiency, less
  in energy supply, after transition phase
  2000-2030
• gas demand stable until 2025, then decline
• hydrogen fuel cell systems for transport and to
  replace gas where local renewables insufficient
• some gas networks can be used for hydrogen
• heat networks to remain in densely built areas

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Vision 2050simple spread-sheet model

• Based on energy balance
• Trends for RE-supply, energy consumption, other
  fuels
• 1990-2050. 2000 base year. 10-years interval
• 2002
• Denmark, Slovakia and EU
• 2003
• Hungary, Romania, Belarus (probably)

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