Energy

1
Energy
2
Energy Use, California, 1972
3
Same Street, 2003
4
Geothermal Energy A Free Lunch?

• Technical Problems of Geothermal Energy
• Corrosion
• Mineral Deposition in Pipes
• Non-Productive gases (Carbon dioxide, methane,
  etc.)
• Low Temperatures
• Low Thermodynamic Efficiency

• Environmental Problems of Geothermal Energy
• It is Finite
• Heat Sources Can Be Exhausted (Geysers,
  California)
• Sulfur Emissions
• Disposal of Mineralized Brines

5
Where the Oil Is
6
The Geography of Oil
7
Hubbert Curves

• In 1956, Oil geologist M. King Hubbert noted that
  rates of oil production follow a bell-shaped
  curve.
• Cumulative production follows a slanting S- curve
• Production lags discovery by about ten years.

8
Hubberts 1956 Prediction
9
Where We Stand Today
10
What if We Find More Oil?

• Even a huge increase in total oil has very little
  effect on the peak and decline of production.
• Why? We waste most of it on inefficient uses.

11
One Solution Limit Production
12
Is There a Lot More Undiscovered Oil?

• 80 per cent of oil being produced today is from
  fields discovered before 1973.
• In the 1990's oil discoveries averaged about
  seven billion barrels of oil a year, only one
  third of usage.
• The discovery rate of multi-billion barrel fields
  has been declining since the 1940's, that of
  giant (500-million barrel) fields since the
  1960's.
• In 1938, fields with more than 10 million barrels
  made up 19 of all new discoveries, but by 1948
  the proportion had dropped to only 3.

13
Oil Discovery Rates
14
Some Relevant Quotes

• The internal-combustion engine used for
  automobiles is a fragile device compared with
  other prime movers -- even compared with the
  internal combustion engines used for diesel-
  electric locomotives that have been known to go
  over a million miles without mechanical
  overhauling.

15
Some Relevant Quotes

• ... the energy-system efficiency of the motor car
  with petroleum motor fuel is, thus, 5 percent ...
  no one is proud of this accomplishment -- least
  of all the automotive-design engineers ... The
  trouble is, every time the design engineer
  manages to save a few BTU it is more than spent
  answering the clamor for softer tires, for radio,
  for better heaters, more lights, cigarette
  lighters and possibly even air conditioning.

16
Some Relevant Quotes

• Histories written a few centuries hence may
  describe the United States as a nation of such
  extraordinary technologic virility that we
  succeeded in finding ways of dissipating our
  natural wealth far more rapidly than any other
  nation. At any rate, we are having a wonderful
  time doing it. From the discussions in the
  earlier chapters of this book it is clear that
  the problem of energy for the United States is
  not one of the dim future. It is upon us now.

17
Some Relevant Quotes

• Our imports of petroleum are small but each year
  they become larger. By 1960 they are likely to be
  quite substantial. By 1970 they will almost
  certainly be huge -- if foreign oil is still
  available then in sufficient quantity... This
  tiny period of earth's life, when we are
  consuming its stored riches, is nearly over ...
  Fortunately for us there is still time for
  fundamental research on alternative energy
  sources. But not too much time.

18
Some Relevant Quotes Source

• Eugene Ayres and Charles A Scarlott, 1952 Energy
  Sources -- The Wealth of the World, McGraw-Hill,
  344p.

19
Petroleum is a Syllogism

• There is a finite amount of it in the world
• We are using it and not replacing it
• Therefore we will eventually run out of it
• Any of this not clear?

20
The End of Cheap Oil

• Known petroleum can last at least a couple of
  centuries more, but
• It only flows through the rocks so fast.
• No amount of drilling will make it flow faster,
  and careless drilling can shorten the lifetime of
  an oil field.
• Sometime in the 21st century, global demand will
  outpace production capacity and
• Oil will go to the highest bidder.

21
A Final Thought

• What have you personally done to deserve access
  to petroleum at any price?