The Mathematics of Football Statistics

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The Mathematics of Football Statistics

• By BJ Houlding
• 12/ /07

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Three-Parter

• Basic Progression
• Counting
• Adding
• Division
• Averages
• QB Ratings
• Standings
• Ratios(Odds)
• Fantasy Football
• Mathematics of
• As Teaching Tool
• Programming

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Counting

• Men on field
• Redskins
• Yards to go
• Yards gained/lost
• YAC
• Yards traveled
• Computer simulations
• X step drop

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Adding

• Penalties
• X plus
• Field Goals
• 17
• Cumulative Stats
• Negative Yardage

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Division

• YPG
• Average Stats
• Comparisons
• Red Zone Success
• Turnovers Etc.

Turnover? MMM. Boom!
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Averages

• Yards
• Yards Allowed
• PPG
• YPC(YPA etc)
• Sacks etc.
• Half sacks

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QB Ratings

• Two systems
• NFL
• NCAA
• Used in most H.S.
• Four Categories
• Yards
• Completion Rate
• Interceptions
• Touchdowns

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NFL

• 158.33 Perfect
• 79 Pregame
• a(((Comp/Att) 100) -30) / 20
• b ((TDs/Att) 100) / 5
• c (9.5 - ((Int/Att) 100)) / 4
• d ((Yards/Att) - 3) / 4
• Xa,b,c, or d
• 0
• (a b c d) / .06

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NCAA

• No perfect rating
• a (Comp/Att) 100
• b (TDs/Att) 100
• c (Int/Att) 100
• d Yards/Att
• a(3.3b)-(2c)(8.4d)

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Standings(Baseball interlude)

• Games ahead/behind
• Win Percentage
• .500
• E
• Magic Number
• Packers is .5

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RatiosOdds(A Vegas Interlude)

• Line/Spread
• Did New England cover?
• Odds
• Da Bears
• Prop Bets
• Superbowl Odds
• Packers 12/1
• Pats 1/4

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Fantasy Football

• Pick Players, Make Team
• Each week, calculate the stats
• Point values for certain achievements
• Head to head, or rotisserie

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Sample Values

• Sack (1)Interception (2)Fumble Recovery
  (2)Touchdown (6)Safety (2)Block Kick
  (2)Return Yards (25 yards per point 3 points at
  250 yards)Kickoff and Punt Return Touchdowns
  (6)Points Allowed 0 points (10)Points Allowed
  1-6 points (7)Points Allowed 7-13 points
  (4)Points Allowed 14-20 points (1)Points
  Allowed 21-27 points (0)Points Allowed 28-34
  points (-1)Points Allowed 35 points (-4)

• Passing Yards (25 yards per point)Passing
  Touchdowns (6)Interceptions (-2)Rushing Yards
  (10 yards per point)Rushing Touchdowns
  (6)Reception Yards (10 yards per
  point)Reception Touchdowns (6)Return Touchdowns
  (6)2-Point Conversions (2)Fumbles Lost
  (-2)Offensive Fumble Return TD (6)

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Educational?

• Dan Flockhart
• Covers the basics
• 80 Unsatisfactory
• Makes math fun

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Programming

• QB ratings etc arduous
• Repetitive, annoying
• Simple for computer
• Demo!

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