http:www.sxc.huphoto356005

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How to innovate on time
Scott BerkunAuthor Consultantwww.scottberkun.c
om
OReilly Emerging technology conference March 2007
http//www.sxc.hu/photo/356005
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How to innovate on time

• Intro
• How to innovate
• How to be on time
• How to innovate on time
• QA

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Hi Im Scott

• MSFT 94-03
• IE 1-5, MSN, Windows
• Now Author/Speaker
• The Art of Project Management (05)
• The Myths of Innovation (May 07)
• www.scottberkun.com

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Innovate \In"novate\, v. To begin or introduce
something for the first time Innovation is
always relative
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• The diffusion of
• innovation is a
• social process,
• based more on
• psychology and
• sociology than
• technology.

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Does innovation mean. Being first? Being
better? Winning?
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Progress Innovation Success Innovation
Is succeeding without innovation worse than
failing with innovation?
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Frustrated innovators

• Vincent Van Gogh, Jackson Pollock
• Farnsworth (TV)
• Carson (Copy Machine)
• Douglas Englebart (Mouse)
• Alan Kay (Smalltalk)
• Chesterburough (Vaseline)
• Holland (Submarine)
• Being ahead of your time is disapointing

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Being good vs. being innovative

• Often innovation is a side-effect
• We were trying to do X and needed Y and Z
• Few major innovators obsessed about how
  innovative they were or not
• Do focus on
• Solving a problem for a customer
• Profiting from the solution
• But avoid Jargon
• Incremental innovation
• Disruptive innovation

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Innovation is risk

• Exploring is expensive
• Investments in innovation are unpredictable
• Many start-ups tried to sell first
• Factors beyond your control
• Markets, economies politics
• Fads, trends and social movements
• Competitors
• Consumer behavior
• Stories The computer WWII, DaVinci Helicopter,
  PC/GUI (1968 to 1984)

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Summary so far

• Innovation is a social function
• Defined by exposure to unknowns
• Good is hard enough a better bet
• We romanticize / exaggerate successes

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How to innovate on time

• Intro
• How to innovate
• How to be on time
• How to innovate on time
• QA

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How innovation happens

• All the clichés are true, but
• Most innovations happen through
• Committed work by experts
• Unexpected discovery followed by work
• Outsiders w/ideas (who work hard)
• Hard work, risk and luck required
• Stories
• Newtons Apple, Teflon, Aspartame, Velcro

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Challenge

• What are the necessary conditions for a person to
  successfully innovate?

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What you need

• A motivation or direction
• Creative thinking / experimenter mentality
• Ability to convert dead ends into new motivations
  / directions
• Ignorance of, or desire to challenge, status quo
• Threshold for risk comfort w/uncertainty
• Time/ for hard work

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Creative Thinking

• Creative thinking is easy be willing to be
  embarrassed
• Facists dont make for creative thinkers
• Creativity / flow demands intimacy more than
  intellect or genius
• Rules from Improv comedy
• Yes and
• No half-assing
• No apologies
• Make the other guy look good

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Exercise

• Describe attributes of the perfect cell phone
• Describe attributes of the perfect 10 cell phone
• Describe the worst cell phone imaginable

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Exercise

• Challenge words (perfect, leading, popular)
• Constraints (cost, time, size, speed)
• Inversion (worst, slowest, smelliest, ugliest)
• Hybrid

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A direction

• Find things that suck
• What should be but isnt? (Shaw)
• Cynics and complainers are great sources for
  inspiration
• Imagine a 50 million budget for your current
  project how would your goals change?
• Stories
• Einstein, Galileo, Crick Watson (DNA)
• Amazon.com, Google, hotmail.com, Frontpage

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Exercise

• Name something that sucks
• Name 5 specific reasons why
• Invert into possible ideas

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Opportunity

• No magic answer to
• When to abandon idea X and switch to Y
• How promising an idea has to be to spend time
  with it
• How innovative or good something needs to be to
  succeed
• However, success depends on these beyond formula
  decisions
• Persistence Copy machine, mouse, PC
• Direction change Post it note, silly putty,
  Flickr

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Hard work

• Dyson vacuum 5000 prototypes
• Edison light bulb 100 to 1
• Hemmingway novel 99 to 1
• Innovation creates work reopens questions and
  breaks assumptions
• People like compatibility and status quo
• Stories DVORAK keyboard, Metric system

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How to innovate on time

• Intro
• How to innovate
• How to be on time
• How to innovate on time
• QA

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We are always late

• Things that start late
• Meetings
• Parties
• Classes (hmmm)
• Dinner reservations, doctors office
• Concerts and events
• We are conditioned to think of time as flexible
• Meet me at 1pm at the coffee shop somewhere
  between 1255 and 110pm.

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Research on software projects
31 of all project cancelled 52 will cost 189
of original estimate 16.2 finish on time, on
budget
http//www.standishgroup.com/sample_research/chaos
_1994_2.php
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Exercise

• Think of the last project you worked on, with
  goals for innovation, that did not finish on time
• What factors contributed to being late?

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Why schedules are late simple

• Anything that goes wrong, makes you late.
• Anytime you prioritize something above of the
  schedule, you will be late.

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Why schedules are late complex

• Many interconnected factors
• Requirements and schedule not sane
• Fuzzy vision, low quality specs
• Technical oversights / Weak estimations
• Poor communication
• Leadership mistakes
• Poor co-ordination
• Changing requirements without changing schedule
• Generally stupid decisions (or people)

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The creative ego

• It was more work than I could finish in a
  lifetime. Yet I signed a contract 5 years. My
  curse to take on more than I can possibly do.
  Madness!
• Michelangelo
• I double dog dare you
• - A Christmas story

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The common failure pattern
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Remaining work
Time
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Remaining work
Time
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Remaining work
Time
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Remaining work
Time
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Remaining work
Time
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Remaining work
Time
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Why it gets harder (1 of 3)
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Remaining work
Time
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?
Remaining work
Time
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Remaining work
Time
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Remaining work
45
35
Time
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Endgame
Remaining work
20
Time
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Why it gets harder (2 of 3)
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Deadline
Effort
Scheduled Real
Time
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Deadline
Effort
Scheduled Real
Time
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Why it gets worse (3 of 3)
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From Quality software management, Vol 1, Weinberg
(Dorsett House, 1998)
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The hypothesis

• If the work gets harder
• And effort is constant (e.g. maximum)
• Progress will slow
• Example Jigsaw puzzle vs. packing for a trip

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Assuming team effort is constant
Rate of progress
Time
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Assuming team effort is constant
Rate of progress
Time
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Endgame
Remaining work
20
Time
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Remaining work
45
35
Time
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How to be on time

• Acknowledge that most things are late
• Review previous project accuracy before planning
  the next
• Explore aggressively / Commit conservatively
• Make everyone aware of common failures
• Plot curves, not lines, for endgame

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How to innovate on time

• Intro
• How to innovate
• How to be on time
• How to innovate on time
• QA

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Challenge

• Who here has innovated on time?

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Innovation as a commodity

• How much innovation in how much time?
• Innovation costs more how will you pay?
• What can you sacrifice?
• Quality
• Cost (think demo automobiles or first PC)
• Schedule
• Expected features
• Mental health
• Commitment to ship (Research prototype)

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How to innovate on time

• Have an experimental milestone (20 time)
• Define criteria for passing milestones
  (subjective is ok)
• For major decisions always have of options at
  different levels of innovation / risk
• Choice A High risk
• Choice B Medium risk
• Choice C low risk
• Etc.

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Design
Implement
Test
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?
Release
Big Idea
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Problem space
Release
Big idea
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Release
Big Idea
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Release
Big Idea
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Release
Big Idea
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Release
Big Idea
One design
Brainstorm or Affinity
threealternatives
twoalternatives
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Release
Big Ideas
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Engineering
Design
Test
Time
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How to innovate on time

• Intro
• How to innovate
• How to be on time
• How to innovate on time
• QA

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Summary

• Innovation sociology technology
• How Experiments, motivation, resilience against
  status-quo, workaholic
• How Explore aggressively, schedule
  conservatively
• Creative milestones control risk

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Talk Tuesday 5pm, Douglas B The myths of
innovation QUESTIONS? Myths of Innovation book
out MAY 2007 OReilly MediaWWW.SCOTTBERKUN.COM
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Photo credits

• Hiking, http//www.sxc.hu/browse.phtml?fdownload
  id638049
• Treasure map, http//www.sxc.hu/photo/575957
• Katana, http//www.sxc.hu/photo/456847
• Mice prototypes, http//www.cc.gatech.edu/classes/
  cs6751_97_fall/projects/follow_me/hw4/douglas.html
  
• Overboard, http//www.adaathletics.homestead.com/
  Fourth02.html