Economic Outlook: Transitioning to Expansion

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Economic Outlook Transitioning to Expansion
National Marine Bankers Association September 28,
2004
Gina Martin Wachovia Economics 704.383.6805 gina.m
artin_at_wachovia.com
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2004/2005 Focus
Economic Growth Transition Business
Spending Employment Consumer Income
_ Three Id Monster Interest
Rates Oil/Inflation Terror Politics
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Oil How Bad Is It?
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Personal Consumption of Gasoline and Oil as a
Percent of Disposable Income
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Crack Spread Oil and Gasoline
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Inflation Long Term Trends Remain CPI Goods
vs. Services
Core Excluding Food and Energy
Both Series are Year to Year Percent Changes
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The Fed is On the Move At a Measured Pace of
Course
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What About Long Term Rates?
10-Year and Inflation
10-Year and Growth
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A Little Help? Net Purchases of U.S. Treasuries
by the Rest of the World
4 Quarter Moving Average, Billions of Dollars
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Home Sales and Interest Rates Connection?
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Growth Transition Recovery to Expansion
Real GDP (Volume Growth)
Bars Seasonally Adjusted Compound Annual Rates
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Yield Curve Signals
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Business Spending is Back Components of Final
Demand
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Businesses Have Cash To Burn
Both Series Are Year over Year Change Corporate
is Net Cash Flow with Inventory Valuation and
Capital Consumption Adjustments, 12 quarter
moving average
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Employees are Pricey! Employment Cost Index
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Steady Employment Gains This Year Nonfarm
Employment Growth
August _at_ 144,000
Monthly Change, In Thousands, Seasonally Adjusted
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Future Job Growth in the U.S. Percent Change in
Employment 2002-2012
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Longer Term Troubles Remain
Unemployment Rate by Education Level
Unemployment Rate by Job Function
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Manufacturing and the U.S. Economy
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More Income Keeps Consumers Spending Personal
Income and Spending
Both Series Are Year over Year Change of 3
Month Moving Average
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Consumers Indeed Better Off Household Net Worth,
Billions of Dollars
2000 Peak 43.6 Trillion Current 45.9 Trillion
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Consumer Debt Mix
Change Q1 2003-Q2 2004 ( Billions)
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Election Year Issues and Economics
Federal Budget Deficit Health Care
Reform Social Security Reform
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