NOAA THORPEX WEATHERCLIMATE LINK SCIENCE PLANNING MEETING

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NOAA THORPEXWEATHERCLIMATE LINK SCIENCE
PLANNING MEETING

• April 27 2006, NCEP

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OUTLINE

• What is THORPEX?
• International, NA Regional, US levels
• NOAA THORPEX program
• THORPEX Climate prediction
• Background
• Distinctions links between weather climate
  forecasting
• Overview of Weather-Climate link section of TIP
• Charge of meeting
• Plenary discussion before lunch (couple slides
  max)
• Break-out groups 1-3?
• Summary plenary session at end

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WHAT IS THORPEX?

• 10-YEAR WMO-SPONSORED RESEARCH PROGRAM
• OBJECTIVE
• Accelerate improvements in skill utility of
  1-14 day high impact weather forecasts
• Weather forecast component of GEOSS
• RESEARCH AREAS
• Observing System
• Data Assimilation
• Predictability / NWP
• Socioeconomic Applications
• APPROACH
• Enhanced collaboration on national, regional,
  international levels
• Between research and operational communities
• Among experts working on four components of
  forecast process
• Within operational community Global Interactive
  Forecast System (GIFS)
• ORGANIZATION
• International level Under WMO IPO, 6 WGs, etc
  Michel Beland David Burridge

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NOAA THORPEX PROGRAM

• FOCUS
• Accelerate improvements in 3-14 day high impact
  probabilistic weather forecasts
• ORGANIZATION
• Under Weather Water Goal, STI, with link to
  EMP LFW
• NOAA THORPEX Executive Council Rick Rosen
• NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee Zoltan
  Toth
• APPROACH
• Grants External community (12 NOAA grants)
• Directed research - NOAA Labs
• Transition to operations Global Test Center
  (JCSDA link), NCEP - NAEFS
• Weather Climate link
• FUNDING
• 1.23M (Current) 2.3M (Presidents request)
  5M (Goal)

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NEW THORPEX NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION PARADIGM
INTEGRATED DATA ASSIMILATION FORECASTING
GLOBAL OPERATIONAL
TEST CENTER
GLOBAL INTERACTIVE FORECAST SYSTEM (GIFS)
Days 15-60
NWS OPERATIONS
CLIMATE FORECASTING / CTB
GLOBAL OPERATIONAL
SOCIOECON.
SYSTEM
TEST CENTER
MODEL ERRORS HIGH IMPACT MODELING
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NOAA THORPEX IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
NOAA THORPEX Funding
NOAA THORPEX Grantee
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THORPEX CLIMATE PREDICTION STATUS 1

• International Science Plan
• General comments references only to
  climatological aspects
• Issue gained prominence after plan completed
• International THORPEX Implementation Plan (TIP)
• Section on links with climate prediction
• Concise plan, with short description of links in
  areas of
• Observing system
• Data Assimilation
• Numerical Forecasting
• Socio-economic Applications
• Prepared by community of experts (January 2005)
• Approved by THORPEX International Core Steering
  Committee (ICSC), 02/2005

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THORPEX IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
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THORPEX CLIMATE PREDICTION STATUS 2

• THORPEX International Program Office (IPO) Report
• Prepared for 1st THORPEX Executive Board (EB)
  meeting, 1-2 Sept. 2005
• Item on intersection with climate prediction
• Mel Shapiro J. Shukla prepared proposal for
  development of
• Ultra-high-resolution seamless global prediction
  system for weather climate
• Advanced high-resolution data-assimilation system
  for weather climate from hrs to yrs
• Actions
• Shapiro Shukla as lead authors, with broad
  authorship, prepare white paper
• Close collaboration between GIFS-TIGGE WG JSC
  task force on seasonal forecasting
• Dave Burridge to participate in WCRP panels on
  modeling and observations
• THORPEX/WCRP MJO Workshop, 13-17 March 2006
  recommendations
• Computational Lab for organized convection
• THORPEX/COPES IOP year

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WEATHER-CLIMATE LINKAGE

• Diverse interpretations
• Different people/groups use expression in very
  different contexts
• THORPEX TIP interpretation based on THORPEX goal
  of
• Accelerating improvements in 1-14 day forecasts
• THORPEX goals related to weather-climate linkage
• Push out weather part from 7 to 14 days
• Interface with climate forecast community for
• Improving 10-60 day Intra-Seasonal (IS) forecasts
• NOAAs approach to THORPEX climate linkage
• Pragmatic - Improve Intra-Seasonal forecast skill
• Consistent with NOAAs operational mission
• Based on International TIP document
• Need to develop associated science background

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WHAT DISTINGUISHES WEATHER CLIMATE FORECASTING?

• Issue of definition
• Complex science questions behind
• Practical consideration
• What is source of predictability?
• Initial conditions determining dynamical forecast
  skill
• Weather
• Atmospheric initial conditions
• Up to 7 days
• Climate
• Ocean / Land surface initial conditions
• Beyond 90 days
• Weather-climate forecast interface
• BOTH initial conditions are important
• 10-60 days

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DISTINCTIONS LINKS BETWEEN WEATHER CLIMATE
FORECASTING

• Contemporaneous weather/climate forecast
  procedures have common basis
• Based on same scientific principles, yet
• Developed from somewhat different origins, by
  different scientific communities
• Somewhat different priorities due to difference
  in applications
• Distinction is often made depending on lead
  time of forecast
• The same natural process is forecast
• Shorter lead time - weather up to a week
• Longer lead time - climate over a month
• Separate streams of weather and climate forecast
  procedures
• Due to different sources of predictability
  (atmosphere vs. ocean / land)
• Short range weather prediction, up to a few days
• Dominated by initial condition of atmosphere
• Climate prediction, beyond 60 days
• Dominated by boundary conditions of atmosphere,
  ie
• Ocean initial conditions

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DISTINCTIONS LINKS BETWEEN WEATHER CLIMATE
FORECASTING - 2

• Prediction for 10-60 day period - No-persons
  land
• Affected by both atmospheric and oceanic / land
  initial conditions
• Great challenge technically
• How to realistically capture sensitivities to
  both constraints at same time?
• What is predictable on different time scales?
• Individual events for short range
• Statistics of individual events at longer ranges
• Probabilistic approach allows for seamless suite
  of products
• Across different time ranges
• How to bridge the gap between weather and climate
  forecasting?
• Review links between weather and climate forecast
  procedures
• Observing System
• Data Assimilation
• Numerical Forecasting
• Socio-Economic Applications

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ADVANTAGES OF UNIFIED WEATHER-CLIMATE FORECAST
SYSTEM

• Improved skill for intermediate ranges
• 10-60 days, affected by both atmospheric ocean
  initial conditions
• Shared scientific knowledge
• Cross fertilization, exchange/use of ideas from
  other discipline
• Shared infrastructure and technology
• Use same numerical forecast procedures
• Computational savings
• Run forecast system once
• Optimized jointly for weather/climate forecasting
• Avoid extra costs from running two separate
  systems
• Seamless product suite
• Easier to achieve if forecast system is unified

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THORPEX IMPLEMENTATION PLAN
Path is laid out by TIP
What are some of the issues? Next slides How to
get there? Outcome of this meeting
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OBSERVING SYSTEM - SYNERGY BETWEEN WEATHER
CLIMATE COMPONENTS

• What is important for weather climate
  prediction?
• Set performance measures for both applications
• For assessing impact of observations
• What are the observational needs of weather
  climate forecasting?
• Evaluate in common framework
• Observing System Experiments (OSE)
• Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE)
• Assess priorities for both applications
• Design future observing system that takes
  advantage of synergies, eg
• Adaptive observational strategy may be useful for
  both
• Weather optimized for short-range forecasting
• Climate optimized for detection of extreme
  events

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DATA ASSIMILATION - SYNERGY BETWEEN WEATHER
CLIMATE COMPONENTS

• Real-time data access
• Critical for atmospheric data
• Ocean data must be made available similarly in
  real time
• Initialization of coupled system
• Current practice treat atmosphere and ocean
  separately
• Challenge related to coupling of atmospheric and
  ocean models
• Technical issue, instabilities related to
  coupling procedure
• Ensemble perturbation techniques
• Coupled initial perturbations needed
• Model perturbations for describing model-related
  forecast errors

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NUMERICAL MODELING - SYNERGY BETWEEN WEATHER
CLIMATE COMPONENTS

• Test use of ensemble with cascadingly lower
  resolution models
• Start with very high resolution, expensive model
  for details at short range
• Truncate after some time, continue with lower
  resolution, cheaper model
• Need reforecast data set for statistical bias
  correction
• Use of Limited Area Models (LAM) for downscaling?
• Originates from weather forecast practice
• Forecast information is from coupled
  ocean-atmosphere-land model
• LAM specifies regional conditions consistent with
  global forecast
• Test use of mixed-layer ocean model as
  intermediate solution
• Avoid problems with full coupling
• Improve extended-range weather forecasts
• Study models ability to simulate/forecast
  intra-seasonal variability
• Unified approach potentially most beneficial for
  10-60 day range

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SEAMLESS APPLICATIONS - SYNERGY BETWEEN WEATHER
CLIMATE COMPONENTS

• Study and compare weather and climate forecast
  applications
• Shorter lead times (1-14 days)
• Intermediate lead times (10-90 days)
• Longer lead times (60 days)
• Exploit experience/knowledge accumulated in
  climate applications (eg, at IRI) for shorter
  ranges
• Compare economic value of weather climate
  forecasts in common framework
• Develop application methods viable at all lead
  times
• Common forecast format Probabilistic
  information
• Seamless suite of products - Digital database
• Spatio-temporal variations differ
• High at short,
• Low at longer lead times
• Yet ensemble offers flexible filtering (no need
  for additional general smoothing/filtering)
• One-stop shopping for weather and climate
  information is needed as
• Society becomes more sensitive to atmospheric,
  hydrologic, and oceanic conditions
• Demonstrate joint weather-climate forecast
  applications
• Joint Demonstration projects

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SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS OFSEAMLESS
WEATHER/CLIMATE FORECAST SUITE
Commerce Energy
Ecosystem Health
Hydropower Agriculture
Sensitivity to Ocean / Land Initital Conditions
Reservoir control Recreation
Transportation Fire weather
Sensitivity to Atmospheric Initial Conditions
Flood mitigation Navigation
WEATHER-CLIMATE FORECASTING LINKAGE
Protection of Life/Property
Weeks
Minutes
Days
Hours
Years
Seasons
Months
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PATH FROM THORPEX RESEARCH TO NOAA OPERATIONS
BASIC RESEARCH
APPLIED RESEARCH
TRANSITION TO OPERATIONS
NOAA OPERATIONS
PHASE
Answer Science Questions
Develop Methods
Prepare for Implementation
Generate Products
What?
External investigators
NOAA Laboratories
Global Test Center / NCEP
NCEP Central Operations
Who?
NSF, DOD, NASA
Financial Support?
NOAA THORPEX PROGRAM
NOAA NWS
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PURPOSE OF MEETING

• NOAA THORPEX Science Plan
• Result of similar 1.5-day planning meeting, Oct.
  2002
• Organized around 4 major research areas
• Observing system
• Data assimilation
• Forecasting
• Socio-economic applications
• Identifies open science questions
• Determines research/development activities/tasks
• Weather-climate linkage largely missing
• Charge of meeting
• Identify most promising areas for improved 10-60
  day IS forecasting
• Open science questions
• Research / development tasks
• 2-4 questions/tasks under each of the four major
  research areas
• Outcome of meeting will be used to
• Complete Science Plan with new weather-climate
  linkage section to guide

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PATH FROM THORPEX RESEARCH TO NOAA OPERATIONS
POSE QUESTIONS
IDENTIFY TASKS
BASIC RESEARCH
APPLIED RESEARCH
TRANSITION TO OPERATIONS
NOAA OPERATIONS
PHASE
Answer Science Questions
Develop Methods
Prepare for Implementation
Generate Products
What?
External investigators
NOAA Laboratories
Global Test Center / NCEP
NCEP Central Operations
Who?
NSF, DOD, NASA
Financial Support?
NOAA THORPEX PROGRAM
NOAA NWS
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NOAA THORPEX WEATHER-CLIMATE LINK MEETING TEAM

• Observations
• Ron Gelaro (NASA)
• David Behringer (EMC)
• Data Assimilation
• Jeff Whitaker (ESRL)
• Tom Hamill (ESRL)
• Ben Kirtman (COLA)
• Modeling
• Max Suarez (NASA)
• Hua-Lu Pan (EMC)
• Joe Tribbia (NCAR)
• Applications
• Randy Dole (ESRL)
• Wayne Higgins (CPC)
• Neil Ward (IRI)

• Coordinate development of observing systems for
  weather and climate prediction
• Develop unified weather-climate data assimilation
  prediction system
• Develop tools for seamless socio-economic
  applications of weather climate forecasts

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BACKGROUND
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NOAAS INVOLVEMENT IN THORPEX

• 1998-99 Discussions started with involvement of
  NOAA scientists
• Apr 2000 First International Meeting
• Mar 2002 First Workshop, International Science
  Steering Committee formed
• Aug 2002 NOAA Tiger Team Meeting
• Oct 2002 NOAA THORPEX Planning Meeting
• Nov 2002 1st Draft NOAA THORPEX Science and
  Implementation Plan
• Jan 2003 NOAA THORPEX Science Steering Committee
  formed
• Feb 2003 Pacific TOST Experiment
• Jun 2003 First NOAA THORPEX Announcement of
  Opportunity
• Sep 2003 25 Full Proposals received

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NOAA THORPEX ACTIVITIES

• RESEARCH PROJECTS
• Adaptive collection use of observations (PARC,
  OSSE) Thurs am
• Ensemble-based data assimilation Tue am-pm
• Representing model errors in ensemble
  forecasting Wedn am
• High impact modeling (enhanced resol., sea ice /
  wave, etc) Wedn pm
• Socioeconomic applications (IPY) Thurs pm
• PATH TO OPERATIONS
• North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)
• MSCNMSMNWS multi-center ensemble
• Operational implementation in March/April 2006
• Prototype / component of future international
  GIFS system
• ESMF connection
• All research must directly connect with NAEFS
  system
• PERFORMANCE MEASURE
• Rate of improvement doubled in NAEFS
  probabilistic forecast scores
• PQPF
• Extreme temperature

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NOAA THORPEX RESEARCH GRANTS
GRANTS DISTRIBUTION

• University groups 5
• NCAR 1
• Private sector 2

NASA 1 (0) ONR/NRL 2 NOAA 1 (2)
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EXAMPLE FROM LAST SUNDAY - THORPEX QUESTIONS
ANIMATION

• Why forecast signal is lost beyond 10-day lead
  time?
• How can predictability be extended?
• Better/more observations?
• Better data assimilation scheme?
• Better numerical model?
• Better ensemble techniques?

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EXAMPLE FROM LAST SUNDAY - THORPEX QUESTIONS
ANIMATION

• Why forecast signal lost at 9-day lead?
• How can predictability be extended?
• Better/more observations?
• Better data assimilation scheme?
• Better numerical model?
• Better ensemble techniques?

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ANIMATION
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DEFINITION OF WEATHER CLIMATE

• What is WEATHER?
• Instantaneous atmospheric and related conditions,
  and their
• Effects on people over short (up to couple of
  days) periods of time
• What is CLIMATE?
• Statistics of weather over expanded (longer than
  a month) periods
• Are there SEPARATE WEATHER CLIMATE
  REALITIES?
• No, there is one natural process, with
• Variability on multiple spatial and temporal
  scales
• Both weather climate are concepts about this
  natural process,
• Emphasizing different aspects of nature
• Weather more concrete you can directly
  experience at the moment
• Climate more abstract one needs to
  intellectually comprehend effect
• FORECASTING weather climate
• Predicting the same reality, weather process
• Sharing the same basic procedures
• Priorities differ according to focus (on weather
  or climate)

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THE MAKINGS OF A WEATHER FORECAST EVER
IMPROVING, BUT ALWAYS IMPERFECT

• Assess current weather situation
• Before we can look into future, understand what
  is happening now
• Initial condition
• Digest observational information
• Bring observed data into standard format
• Data assimilation
• Project initial state into future
• Based on laws of physics
• Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model
  forecasting
• Apply weather forecast information
• Statistical post-processing
• User applications
• REPRESENT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY PROBABILISTIC
  FORMAT